England will experience worse levels of drought next year if this winter is drier than normal, the Environment Agency has warned.
The environmental regulator has today (Friday 14 November) released its Drought Prospects Report, examining the wet weather needed through the winter to ensure the country’s current low water levels recover by spring 2026.
Despite recent rainfall, the drought situation across the country is still precarious following a record dry spring and a continued run of heatwaves and dry weather throughout the summer.
Drought is only over when water levels are fully replenished, and England has seen below average rainfall for eight out of ten months so far this year. This means that flooding in drought is possible, including flash floods as dry soils struggle to soak up intense downpours.
The Met Office has forecast heavy rain into Saturday but indicated a higher-than-usual likelihood of dry conditions over three months from November to January. This could cause drought conditions to worsen, leading to hosepipe bans, significant pressures on the environment and a risk to crop yields.
The new report analyses three different rainfall scenarios over winter and what each one would mean for water security across England’s regions ahead of next year’s traditionally drier months. Without average rainfall, most of England will experience a drought with widespread impacts felt by consumers, farmers, businesses, and nature.
The Environment Agency is urging the public to continue to play their part and use water wisely through winter, in anticipation of another drought year.
Director of Water at the Environment Agency, Helen Wakeham, said:
There will be a drought next year, unless we get sustained rainfall through the winter.
The severity of that drought will depend both on the weather and the actions we take over winter following this very dry year.
The public have been brilliant in using a little less water this summer and following the restrictions in some parts of the country. I would urge people to continue to be as efficient as possible with their water use this winter – even if it is raining outside. Our wildlife, our rivers and our public water supplies depend on it.
Water Minister Emma Hardy said:
I welcome the recent rainfall but the prolonged dry weather throughout this year continues to pose risks to public water supplies, farming, and the environment. We continue to work with the National Drought Group and water companies to maintain supplies for communities across the country.
Climate change means we will face more frequent, severe droughts and flooding in the years ahead. That’s why this government is taking decisive action to secure our long-term water resilience, which includes building nine new reservoirs and investing in new pipes to reduce leakage.
Will Lang, Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, said:
While it’s not possible to definitively forecast weather for the next three months, the chances of a dry period are higher than normal.
A more average three-month period for rainfall is still the most likely scenario. It’s important to note that rainfall patterns in England can be variable, so while some may see more rainfall, others will see less, possibly giving limited relief from long-standing dry conditions.
The Drought Prospects Report looks at the rainfall scenarios below and the likely impacts.
Rainfall scenarios:
Average Winter Rainfall (100% of average rainfall)
With average winter rainfall, most of England would be in recovery from drought or have returned to normal conditions by spring 2026. The exception is parts of Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire, which would remain in prolonged dry weather.
Public water supplies and irrigation reservoirs for agriculture would be fully recovered. The canal network would be recovered in time for the peak boating season, which begins around Easter. Some residual effects on nature would remain, such as a poor breeding season for amphibians.
Dry Winter (80% of average rainfall)
This scenario would see drought conditions increase over the winter months because of the current low river flows, groundwater, and reservoir levels. By the end of March, a large area spanning from Dorset to East Yorkshire would be in drought. The south east, south west and East Anglia would be in prolonged dry weather with only the north west experiencing normal conditions.
This rainfall scenario would increase the risks to some crops, with a reduced breeding success of birds, an increased risk of wildfires and potential navigation closures.
Very Dry Winter (60% of average rainfall)
By spring 2026 all of England would be in drought. There would be reduced water for irrigating crops, reduced vegetable production and an impact on grass growth.
Most water companies would see impacts in either all or part of their supply area, meaning an expectation of hosepipe bans and non-essential use bans. There would also be the potential for permanent environmental damage as well as significant impacts in the leisure sector, such as golf clubs and football pitches.
The Environment Agency’s report also pushes for more collaboration across all sectors, with a list of recommended actions. Water companies should continue to engage and help customers use a little less water. They must also continue their efforts to reduce leakage and be ready for cold snaps, which can cause pipes to burst. They should also identify new sources of water and look to accelerate water saving schemes, where possible.
Farmers should decide if they need to adjust their cropping patterns to include more drought tolerant crops or varieties which do not need as much irrigation. They should also look to fill their reservoirs as soon as possible and work with their neighbours to share water rights, or share water, where possible.
The Environment Agency will continue to lead the nation’s response to drought. The regulator will also conduct enhanced monitoring, increase checks on abstractors, and continue to work with water companies on preparing for drought next spring.
It has also called for additional funding to be made available for long-term research into water use and ways to forecast future droughts.
NOTES TO EDITORS:
DROUGHT:
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This spring was the driest in 132 years. This summer is the hottest since records began in 1884, with four heatwaves.
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From January 1st to October 31st, England saw 83% of its long-term average rainfall.
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In August, the National Drought Group declared a “nationally significant water shortfall” in England.
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Places are currently in drought – Yorkshire, East Midlands, West Midlands and parts of Sussex and Kent.
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Areas in drought recovery – Cumbria and Lancashire, and Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire.
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Places in prolonged dry weather (the phase before drought) – North East, Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire, East Anglia, Thames, Wessex, Solent and South Downs.
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The remaining areas are normal: Hertfordshire, London, Kent, Devon and Cornwall.
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Over the summer, the Canal & River Trust shut 20% of its network due to lack of water.
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Farmers’ harvests were impacted and there are concerns heading into winter on feed availability for livestock due to poor grass growth over the spring and summer.
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The dry weather has impacted the breeding success of wetland birds, great crested newts, natterjack toads and the migration patterns of eels and salmon. It has also led to trees, including ancient ones, becoming severely stressed.
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Eight million people are still under hosepipe bans across Yorkshire, Thames Valley, Sussex and Kent.
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Total reservoir stocks across England for the period ending 4 November were 65.8%. The average for this time of year is 77.4%.
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Water is finite and there are competing demands between public use, businesses, agriculture, and the environment.
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In dry weather, water still needs to be abstracted from rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater and a drought is only over when these levels are fully replenished. This can take months – sometimes years.
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Latest dry weather situation report here.
DROUGHT PROSPECTS REPORT:
- The Environment Agency collated data for the report from: Angling Trust, Canal & River Trust, Consumer Council for Water, Energy UK, Forestry Commission, the leisure sector, Met Office, National Farmers Union, National Trust, 18 water companies in England, Waterwise, Wild Trout Trust and UK Irrigation Association.
LONG-TERM AVERAGE RAINFALL STATISTICS FOR 2025 SO FAR:
Jan
112%
Feb
79%
Mar
25%
Apr
50%
May
57%
Jun
80%
Jul
89%
Aug
42%
Sept
149%
Oct
90%
AUTUMN / WINTER WATER SAVING TIPS:
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Opt for a low-flow shower head: These use around 6 litres per minute, compared to a standard shower head, which uses 10-15 litres per minute. Over a 10-minute shower, that’s a saving of up to 90 litres of water.
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If you don’t have a dual flush, get a Cistern Displacement Device (CDD) from your water company: This simple tool can reduce each toilet flush by at least 1 litre and is often available for free from water companies. Find out more on your water company’s website
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In the kitchen avoid pre-rinsing dishes – scrape them instead, as modern detergents are designed to work effectively without extra rinsing and use a washing-up bowl to catch excess water -this can reduce wastage by up to 50%.
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Fill your washing machine to its recommended load size for the most efficient use of water.
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In the garden, use a watering can rather than a hose or sprinkler. Only water the plant root zone to avoid wasting water where the plant won’t need it. Check the weather forecast – if rain is due then hold off on watering.
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Challenge yourself and your family to shorter showers – can you shower over one song rather than two or three?
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When having a bath, go for a bit less water.
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Get the bucket and sponge out when cleaning the car, ditch the hose.
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Know your house plants and how much water they really need during cooler winter months – make an effort not to over water.
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Make a water diary with your family, record every time you use water. Research how much you are likely to have used – the better we understand about where we use water, the easier it is to make small savings here and there.
