Football betting tips: World Cup qualifying
2.5pts Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland at 21/20 (General)
1pt Joshua Kimmich to score anytime in Luxembourg vs Germany at 4/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair
Luxembourg vs Germany
Germany’s place at next summer’s World Cup is by no means guaranteed as we head into the final week of qualification, although that shouldn’t come as a surprise.
A group containing Northern Ireland, Slovakia and Friday’s opponents should have been straightforward yet we’ve come to expect different of Die Mannschaft in recent years – a shadow of the force of ten years ago.
They are 1/25 to win against Luxembourg so it’s a formality in the eyes of the bookmakers. Julian Nagelsmann’s side were 4-0 winners when the sides met at the home of Hoffenheim a month ago.
You can take your pick from a number of options in the goalscorer market as they will be on the front foot throughout. Newcastle’s Nick Woltemade can be found at 20/23 which is worth consideration if you’re happy to settle with near doubling your money.
Instead, the pick which stands out to me is the 4/1 on JOSHUA KIMMICH TO SCORE ANYTIME. He netted twice against the same opponent a month ago.
Germany do have a huge contest with Slovakia on Monday which will very likely decide the group, so one eye will be on that when it comes to team selection, but Nagelsmann will likely go as strong as possible to avoid any slip-ups here.
Kimmich had five shots against Luxembourg as he switched to right-back with two coming in the loss to Slovakia in September.
The thing which does really appeal is his presence on set-pieces and particularly penalties. One of his two goals against Luxembourg was from the penalty spot while he also converted their previous spot kick before it – that being in the Nations League clash with Italy in March.
The brace is offered with Coral and Ladbrokes at 40/1 but won’t be a staked selection here given the variety in price among the bookmakers and lack of wider availability – bet365, for example, go as short as 14s.
But with at least 7/2 available in multiple places, and Sky Bet and Hills offering 4s, I’ll side with Kimmich finding the net again on Friday night.
Slovakia vs Northern Ireland
The other game in this group holds far more importance on the final standings. It’s now-or-never for Northern Ireland if they are to qualify for the World Cup through this method – anything less than a win will very likely bring it to an end.
Slovakia are eyeing up top spot and we should get the deciding clash with Germany on Monday.
Taking a SLOVAKIA WIN can be found at 21/20 and that delivers appeal for a couple of reasons.
The first of which is their home form. They are unbeaten in their last seven in front of their own supporters with a notable win over Germany included in that run.
Slovakia have kept clean sheets in each of their last four at home too. It’s a solid defence and we shouldn’t be too concerned with the fact they lost when the sides met last month.
Key figures from that day are missing for Northern Ireland.
Shea Charles is currently sidelined with a hamstring issue while Ali McCann fractured his arm while featuring for Preston. They are two regular starters in the midfield.
Not only that but they will be without Ethan Galbraith through suspension for the first of the two matches which feature in this break. That trio started in the last match against Slovakia, while Oxford’s Brodie Spencer came off the bench – another absentee from the squad.
Goalkeeper Pierce Charles remains out which means Bailey Peacock-Farrell continues in net. His performances are never at a consistent enough level to fully trust.
So not only do we have a Slovakia side who have shown their strength at home throughout 2025, they take on a depleted Northern Ireland outfit which typically struggles on the road anyway.
I imagine that this goes off at odds-on prices, making the even money and above across the board worth backing.
Odds correct at 1240 GMT (13/11/25)
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