The Philadelphia Flyers made a splash by acquiring Trevor Zegras this past offseason. Philadelphia needed to add skill and scoring to its lineup, and did so by trading with Anaheim for the former Ducks’ star.
Zegras is in the final year of his three-year, $5.75 million AAV deal he signed with the Anaheim Ducks – a pending restricted free agent. The Flyers had been linked to Zegras far before actually dealing for him this past summer. It’s fair to assume the Flyers would like to see him in Philadelphia beyond this season.
NHL insider Elliotte Friedman wrote in his Written 32 Thoughts, “Extension I’m starting to wonder about: Trevor Zegras, Philadelphia. Eligible now. Yes, it’s only been 13 games (16 now), but it looks like a good fit, and I can see the Flyers gauging interest in lengthening the relationship.”
Zegras is certainly fitting in to his new locker room and is making a significant impact on the team. The 24-year-old forward is producing for the Flyers, posting four goals and 12 assists through 16 games in Philadelphia.
He has also helped revive a power play that had been consistently toward, or at the bottom of, the league for the past four seasons.
That said, Zegras is lining himself up for a solid payday. That’s where the when and how much of his extension can get tricky.
Zegras is one of six pending RFAs the Flyers have, alongside Nikita Grebenkin, Bobby Brink, Jamie Drysdale, Emil Andrae, and Egor Zamula. Among them, Zegras feels most likely to get an in-season extension, but when is the right time?
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When is the Right Time to Extend Trevor Zegras
The trickiest part when extending Zegras is when to do it.
Right now, Zegras is playing a point-per-game pace, but it’s early in the season. He is leading the Flyers in points with 16 on four goals (tied for 2nd) and 12 assists (team lead). With the rising cap, Zegras could ride this hot start and command a much higher salary.
As much as getting Zegras locked up should be a priority, it would feel a bit foolish to pay him based on 16 games. So, the waiting game should be expected. That can go one of two ways. One, he could ride this hot streak and only drive his value higher and higher. Or, he could cool off a bit, and his value could become a little lower.
To me, the best thing to do is wait for the Holidays. If Zegras continues to produce like a star, pay him like a star. Come January, if the production remains the same, it’s fair to say it’s not just a hot streak. On the other hand, if you wait and his production dips, the Flyers could consider a lower AAV or even postpone negotiations further down the line.
No matter what, this should not get to the summer. The Flyers made the move to trade for Zegras to fill a hole. Letting negotiations slip into summer would be a mistake.
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What Will the Extension Look Like
Shane Pinto was just given a four-year extension worth $7.5 million annually from the Ottawa Senators. To me, that feels like a very good comparison for Zegras’ extension.
Both Pinto and Zegras will be 25 years old when their extensions kick in at the beginning of next season. This season, both players are averaging around 20 minutes per game, with Zegras being at 20:44 and Pinto at 19:23.
This season, Pinto has 14 points with eight goals and six assists in 17 games. Career-wise, Zegras certainly has the upper hand when comparing points, but Pinto brings more value in his defensive responsibility. This season, Pinto has really come into his own.
It feels like the Senators are betting on Pinto’s good season as a driving force of the AAV.
That said, that $7.5M AAV feels like a good base for Zegras’ extension. If the Flyers look more toward the short-to-middle term, I can see it being higher than that mark, possibly even into the eights.
However, if the Flyers are willing to commit long-term, and if Zegras is interested in a longer deal, the AAV could come in a lot closer to $7.5 million.
After the deal Pinto got, a $7.5M AAV seems like a good baseline for when the Flyers and Zegras start talking extension, if they have not begun already.
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