Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Sacramento Kings @ Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
I think the wheels are coming off in Sacramento, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some drastic organizational changes coming soon. But that won’t help them on the court tonight, where things just keep getting worse and they tend to start early in games. The Kings are down to 23rd in average first half margin, but that rank is on a downward trajectory thanks to this current 1-5 SU run where they’ve trailed at halftime by an average of 11.5 points.
The biggest problem for them has been the second quarter, where they’re a cumulative minus-47 during that same 6 game stretch. Sacramento has been very banged up and will continue to be tonight as Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk are questionable, so the thin bench should continue their second quarter woes and let the Wolves build a solid halftime lead. That was the case on Sunday night when the Wolves turned a 6-point lead after the first quarter to a 17-point halftime advantage. With this also being an NBA Cup game, margin will matter and I think Minnesota looks to pad theirs early and often.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Orlando Magic First Half Team Total Over 62 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on YES
If the Nets are playing, I’m making this bet against them. It’s just that simple, even with some question marks surrounding the Magic tonight. They’ll be without Paolo Banchero here, but I think have still shown enough offensive pop this season to take advantage of such a horrendous defense. The Nets have not stopped allowing opponents to do whatever they want before halftime, still allowing 66.9 first half points per game. And on the road that number jumps to an incredible 70.6, so a Magic team that needs to consider margin of victory should look to smash Brooklyn right out of the gates.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/Milwaukee Bucks First Quarter Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI
These teams just played the other day, getting to 62 first quarter points before the scoring cooled off and the full game went well under the total. That’s indicative of how Charlotte has played this season, with absolutely no resistance in the first quarter as at 33.8 per game they’re allowing the most points in the league to start games. There’s a lot of stiff competition for that distinction, so props to the Hornets who also give up 37.8 in opening quarters on the road, but happen to be 2nd in first quarter scoring too so they see a lot of crazy starts to their games.
What has my attention tonight is the return of LaMelo Ball for Charlotte and Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Bucks, neither of whom played in Wednesday’s meeting. That game had a first quarter total of 56.5 points, so I’m not buying that LaMelo and Giannis are only worth 2 extra first quarter points over their replacements in the starting lineup. I think this one is a fast and wild start with plenty of three’s, sending the first quarter well over this poorly adjusted total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) IU Indianapolis @ Eastern Michigan -5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on ESPN+
I’ll start by saying I don’t remember seeing a total this high this early in the season, as the number for this game is an astronomical 186.5 points. To have that kind of number in a game where Eastern’s fairly weak offense is playing speaks volumes about just how ridiculous IU Indy has been. It’s not so much that the Jaguars couldn’t guard a parked car, it’s that they’d probably just refuse to try.
Their pace of first in the country, along with the 6th-fastest possession length on defense and 354th ranking in 2-point percentage allowed, shows that they just let teams go right to the rim with no resistance. That’s perfect for Eastern Michigan, who can’t shoot it from deep and don’t even try, but lead the country in percentage of their points they get inside the arc. I think they get whatever they want at the rim all night, their solid defense does enough to slow down Indy’s maniacal pace, and the Eagles pull away for a comfortable victory.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee/Texas Tech Over 163.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Texas Tech should be in a foul mood here as they return home from a tight loss at Illinois. If they’re out to stomp someone, not many non-power teams would stand any chance, much less Milwaukee and their poor defense. The Panthers are down to 305th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and are particularly bad at guarding the perimeter as they rank 321st in three-point percentage allowed.
Tech has been firing away from deep this season, so they should knock plenty of those down tonight on their way to a runaway win. They’ll also get to maximize their number of possessions against an up-tempo Milwaukee squad, so this top-10 offense should go wild. The concept of a blowout over is in play here, similar to Tech’s other home games this season where they put up 98 points both times, and extra motivation should make that kind of scoring the baseline here.
Degenerates
NCAA Football Minnesota +14 First Half @ Oregon (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on FOX
I think the spread for this game has gotten a little out of hand overall at 25.5 points, but mostly because of the situational spot which might create a bigger advantage for Minnesota early on. Oregon coming off a tough win at Iowa last week is going to take it out of them for this game, and a slower start in a letdown spot could be coming. The Gophers have an even bigger advantage considering they’re coming off a bye week, and while they’ve been dreadful when visiting premier programs, I think they can hang within two touchdowns before the Ducks pull away.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 31-35 (-0.89 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
