NBA Cup season is in full swing, and the Dallas Mavericks will get their second bite at the money apple on Friday evening when the LA Clippers visit the American Airlines Center. The Mavericks (3-9) have lost six out of their last seven ball games overall and have yet to beat a team from the Western Conference this season. The Mavs probably gave their best effort of the season in a 123-114 loss to the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday, but the 18-point hole they dug for themselves in the third quarter proved to be too big of a hill to overcome.
Sitting at just 3-8, the Clippers are among the league’s biggest disappointments to start the season. Just a few short months after having one of the best defenses in the league, the Clippers began this season with the 29th ranked defense in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass, with a defensive rating of 123.2. The offense is not nearly potent enough to make up for that, leading to this start. In fact, LA is one of just seven teams with a net rating that is worse than the Mavericks.
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What we’re saying is: This game is shaping up to be a movable force versus a stoppable object. THAT’S NBA CUP BASKETBALL. FEEL THE EXCITEMENT.
The VIOLENTLY blue court will make its return to the AAC Friday (Photo by Tim Heitman/NBAE via Getty Images)
Now, what will determine the game? Let’s preview the action.
Establishing the run takes time
You might remember back in the preseason, where I described this offense as the basketball equivalent of “establishing the run” in football. Many of the buzzwords included “ball and player movement”, “spacing” and “pace”. However, the offense that has shown up has been anything but that. This team currently is last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring just 105.7 points per 100 possessions. For reference, that would’ve ranked tied for 16th in the 2005-06 season. That’s not very good!
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Now, where can this scale up? It’s playing Flagg with Brandon Williams. Per Cleaning the Glass, this is the net rating breakdown for the Mavericks with Cooper Flagg on the court:
Flagg + no other guards: -22.8 net rating in 200 possessions
D’Angelo Russell + Flagg on court: -25.3 net rating in 294 possessions
Brandon Williams + Flagg on court: +6.8 net rating in 301 possessions
In nearly equal amounts of sample size, Flagg + Brandon Williams is 32.1 points per 100 possessions better than Flagg + Russell. That’s the secret sauce for this team, and probably the biggest reason that Brandon Williams is now starting games.
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It should be expected that there is a learning curve when you make the eighteen-year-old a focal point of your offense. Granted, this team was not supposed to rely on Cooper Flagg as heavily as it has, but injuries to all of your bigs and the roster construction being what it is (thanks again, Nico) have made that the case. Kidd seems to have found at least a temporary fix. Let’s see how long they can milk it for.
Injury questions
Will the Mavericks get anyone back off of the injury report? All of PJ Washington (shoulder), Anthony Davis (calf) and Dereck Lively II (knee) are listed as questionable for this contest. Davis and Lively were both listed as questionable against the Suns on Wednesday before being held out. Washington, meanwhile, left the Suns game in the first quarter after injuring his shoulder. If the Mavericks are able to get these guys back, it would be a big boost for their group.
The Mavericks need to beat a Western Conference team
So far this year, the Mavericks are 0-6 against their own conference. That on its own is not very good. To make matters worse, the offense that Dallas has produced in these games is horrifying. The Mavs are averaging 100.8 points per game against the West, and have scored less than 100 points in half of those contests. Two of the other three games were outputs of 102 and 104 points. Suffice to say, the beatings will continue until running actual offense improves.
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How to watch
Usual suspects for this NBA Cup Group Stage game. KFAA (or your TEGNA affiliate) will have you covered over the air, with Mavs TV having the stream. If you’re outside of the Mavericks market, NBA League Pass will have the game as well. As always, tune into Pod Maverick after the game to catch Kirk and Josh give their analysis on what transpired.
