Both coaches have one eye on the final quarter already with their selections, but England’s bench have the edge as they look for just a third win over New Zealand in 22 years.
It’s an odd feeling to be confident of victory in the lead-up to facing the All Blacks given the weight of history against the men in white, and there’ve been a few false dawns in this match-up over the past couple of decades, but things have shifted over the past 12 months.
England should have won at Allianz Stadium last November but let a 22-14 lead slip in the final 20 minutes, and prior to that were within a converted try of New Zealand in both Tests away from home on tour in the summer of 2024 as well.
A year on and Steve Borthwick is utilising his replacements much better and has more depth in his squad, as well as benefiting from the sort of confidence a nine-game winning streak brings, and the same can’t be said for New Zealand.
WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND – SEPTEMBER 13: Beauden Barrett of New Zealand reacts after losing The Rugby Championship match between New Zealand All Blacks and South Africa Springboks at Sky Stadium on September 13, 2025 in Wellington, New Zealand. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
The All Blacks are one of the most successful sports teams in history and remain the second best team in the world but they’re at a point in their evolution under Scott Roberston, and halfway through a World Cup cycle, that means they don’t look as formidable as usual.
Compared to last year, there’s no Jordie Barrett, Caleb Clarke, Mark Tele’a, Rieko Ioane, Sam Cane and Tupou Vaa’i for a combination of reasons and a third of the starting XV have 10 caps or fewer to their name.
I wouldn’t go as far as to say there’s never been a better chance to beat the All Blacks because we’ve probably felt that before and been burned and any side with Ardie Savea, Beauden Barrett, Will Jordan, Codie Taylor and Scott Barrett in it is going to be a force to be reckoned with.
However, the likes of Simon Parker, Peter Lakai, Leroy Carter and co are all still getting their feet under the table and acclimatising to international rugby and Borthwick will surely be looking to put them on the back foot and expose their inexperience.
England have a handful of fresh faces too but there is a more settled look to their team and, crucially, they have loaded the bench with a host of players who are really first choice in a nod to what Rassie Erasmus has been doing with the world champions for a while now.
Ellis Genge, Luke Cowan-Dickie and Will Stuart are probably the best England have to offer in the front row and all start among the replacements, while Tom Curry and Henry Pollock have energy to burn and are getting used to their specialist ‘Pom squad’ roles.
Lions prediction” width=”1024″ height=”576″ /> Chandler Cunningham-South (Photo by Silvia Lore/Getty Images)
Chandler Cunningham-South will add his power and explosiveness to that group this week, with Ben Spencer the scrum-half cover and Marcus Smith providing game-breaking ability from either fly-half or full back.
The Harlequins playmaker has clearly been picked ahead of Fin Smith because of his ability to cover both those positions but it still baffles me why the Northampton man has lost out to George Ford in the battle for the starting jersey.
Fin was picked to go on the British & Irish Lions tour in the summer, he is the present and the future, his form remains excellent and he has a superb all-round game that gets the best out of those around him.
Much like the selection ahead of the Australia Test a couple of weeks ago, I suspect Ford has got the nod because of his kicking game and I expect England to go after Carter and Leicester Fainga’anuku in that area.
Jordan is one of the very best players in the world at the moment but I think he’s better on the wing as well so I’m sure Ford will be tasked with putting up a number of bombs for the likes of Freddie Steward, Tom Roebuck, Manny Feyi-Waboso and others to chase.
The only other selection that might have surprised a few is Guy Pepper retaining the number six jersey but he’s been outstanding for club as well as country and offers a bit more height and lineout ability than the alternatives.
He’ll empty the tank before probably giving way to Curry or Pollock and I honestly think that back row make-up has informed Robertson’s selection this week, especially with Borthwick having named his side so early on Tuesday in another Erasmus-esque move.
Wallace Sititi is a phenomenal athlete and was player of the match at Allianz Stadium last autumn so I suspect Robertson wants him to have a bigger impact in the final quarter and counteract the effect of Curry and Pollock coming on.
Wallace Sititi (Photo by Jonathan Moscrop/Getty Images)
As well as aerially, I think England will target the driving maul as the All Blacks struggled with that against Scotland and then if they can put them under pressure, then their discipline has been questionable at times.
The three yellow cards last week makes it nine now in 2025, which is more than any of the other major nations this year, and that could have a major say in the outcome of the match if England can be a bit more ruthless than they have been against 14 men.
The big difference from 12 months ago though is belief. England may only have won two of the last 21 Tests against New Zealand but it feels like they have it now and this is their time to send a message to the rest of the world that they’re going to be genuine contenders at the next World Cup.
They’ve won nine Tests on the spin and are riding the crest of a wave, the likes of France, Argentina and Australia have been seen off but this is the litmus test for this new group of England players.
In terms of the teams above them in the world rankings, they couldn’t beat Ireland this year, haven’t beaten the All Blacks since the epic 2019 World Cup semi-final and have been second best against the Springboks since 2021 so this feels like a chance to lay down a marker.
History might indicate otherwise but current form suggests England are favourites and I think the ‘Pom squad’ are going to finally get them over the line against the All Blacks and edge it by four points.
