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Why Japan match is a must-win for Wales

Louis Rees-Zammit will make his first international start since returning to rugby union from the NFL when Wales face Japan in Cardiff on Saturday in a match which is crucial to the hosts’ hopes of landing a more-favourable 2027 Rugby World Cup draw.

Rees-Zammit resumed his rugby career in August after joining Gallagher Prem side Bristol Bears having spent the previous 18 months with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars in an attempt to break into American Football.

The 24-year-old winger earned his first Wales cap since the 2023 World Cup quarter-final when he came off the bench in last Sunday’s 52-28 loss to Argentina.

But he has now been named in Steve Tandy’s starting XV to earn his 34th cap for the second match of the Autumn Nations Series at Principality Stadium.

His inclusion is one of four changes Tandy has made to his side.

Wales squad to face Japan

Wales starting XV:
15. Blair Murray, 14. Louis Rees-Zammit, 13. Max Llewellyn, 12. Ben Thomas, 11.Josh Adams, 10. Dan Edwards, 9. Tomos Williams, 8. Olly Cracknell, 7. Alex Mann, 6. Aaron Wainwright, 5. Adam Beard, 4. Dafydd Jenkins, 3. Archie Griffin, 2. Dewi Lake (c), 1. Nicky Smith

Replacements: 16. Liam Belcher, 17. Rhys Carre, 18. Keiron Assiratti, 19. Freddie Thomas, 20. Taine Plumtree, 21. Kieran Hardy, 22. Jarrod Evans, 23. Nick Tompkins

With captain Jac Morgan ruled out of the remainder of the autumn series after dislocating his shoulder against Argentina, Alex Mann moves to openside flanker with Alan Wainwright starting at blindside.

Leicester’s Olly Cracknell comes in at number eight after making his debut as a replacement last weekend.

Nicky Smith and Archie Griffin are drafted in for Rhys Carre and Keiron Assiratti, who drop down to the bench.

The match kicks off at 5.40pm.

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Speaking in August, new Wales head coach Steve Tandy discussed Louis Rees-Zammit’s return to rugby union

Why Japan match is a must-win for Wales

As they seek to end a run of 10 successive home international defeats, Wales also know victory over Japan would carry extra significance given the looming presence of the draw for the 2027 Rugby World Cup.

The six pool groups for the expanded 24-team tournament – which is behind held in Australia in October-November 2027- will be drawn on December 3 and position in the World Rugby Rankings is crucial for who qualified nations face in their four-team group in two years’ time.

The top six counties in the rankings at the time of the draw will be seeded in band one, with teams from sixth to 12th places in band two. The next groups of six teams are then in bands three and four respectively.

At 12th place in the rankings, Wales are currently the final team provisionally in band two but would fall behind 13th-placed Japan – who are just 0.32 points adrift of them – into band three if the Brave Blossoms gain at least a draw in Cardiff on Sunday.

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Japan then play 11th-placed Georgia in Tbilisi on November 22, while Wales complete their autumn series of games with difficult matches against giants New Zealand and South Africa, the nations ranked second and first in the world respectively.

The side who ends up in band three would face a tougher set of pool opponents based on the rankings.

The standings are calculated via a ‘points exchange’ system, with sides taking points off each other based on the result of the match.

Wales, however, can take encouragement from the fact they beat Japan the last time they played Eddie Jones’ side – a victory which ended a record 18-match losing Test run – with a 31-22 success in Kobe in July.

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