Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
Marshall/Georgia State Over (55.5): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+
These teams aren’t going to play much defense, and with capable offenses for both squads this could turn into a shootout. Marshall at least will be trying in this game, as they need 2 wins in their final 3 games for bowl eligibility, and should find Georgia State’s defense laying down for them. The Panthers lay down for everyone though, as they’ve allowed the most points per game and the fourth-most yards per game in the country. Marshall isn’t much better defensively though, ranking bottom-20 in efficiency metrics, so with two excellent dual-threat QB’s and defense being optional, this should fly over the adjusted total.
UCF @ Texas Tech (-16.5): 2:30 PM CT on FOX
Texas Tech has no margin for error as the Big12 is likely to get just one representative in the CFP, and I don’t think they miss in this situation. The Red Raiders are simply too good at home, running out far better teams than UCF by much bigger margins than this adjusted spread. There would be natural let-down spot concerns after they handled BYU last week in a key game, but Tech was sloppy and settled for a lot of field goals. Otherwise that would’ve been an even bigger blowout and this spread would be bigger as a result, so I’ll move it down through several key numbers and expect the Red Raiders to handle business today.
Florida @ Ole Miss (-4.5): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
Florida got their fired-coach bounce a couple weeks ago after canning Billy Napier, as they hung tough with Georgia in that rivalry game. Those bounces do not tend to last, especially with a team in a lost season like the Gators are, and they proved it by getting run out 38-7 by a weak Kentucky team. Ole Miss will be a far tougher task, and I think the Rebels run Florida out of the building as a big win here basically cements their CFP entry. Florida has simply been a disaster on the road this season, scoring just 10.3 PPG in true road spots while losing by 19.3 points on average. That’s a recipe for another disaster at this quietly excellent Ole Miss squad, and getting the spread down to this low of a number should be an easy ask.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Minnesota Timberwolves Over 234.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
This is a matchup of two teams in the top-5 of the league in shooting and offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, these defenses have been surprisingly weak, particularly the Wolves who are supposed to be a much more defensive-oriented team than ranking just 12th in defensive rating. So I think in a game like this, offense is going to become the theme, especially given that the Wolves are on a back-to-back here after a high-possessions game with Sacramento last night.
So far this season the Nuggets are 4-1 to the over with a plus-12.1 margin to the total when they have a rest advantage over the opponent, so they know how to push tempo on a tired defense. These offenses are just really impressive lately, with both averaging over 125 PPG their past 6 games each, so this total shouldn’t be too tough to clear.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 49.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Just give him every MVP and all the other awards, this is insane what Jokic is doing to start the season. November has been particularly wild after a slow scoring start in October, as he’s now averaging 58.8 on this prop for the month. The uptick in scoring to 35.8 PPG the past 6 has really raised the floor for him, and I think that continues considering he’s shooting an insane 73.9% this month. He’s also shooting 79% on two-pointers this season, so if he’s healthy tonight he’s going off again.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 29-35 (-2.37 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
