Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal matchup features grappling dominance against striking volume and defensive wrestling. Both fighters are looking to secure their positions in the 145-pound division. These contenders will clash at UFC 322 on November 15th at Madison Square Garden.
Sabatini stands 5’8″ with a 70 inch reach and a 20-5 record. He shows conservative striking at just 1.87 per minute with excellent 62% accuracy while absorbing minimal 1.22. His striking defense sits at 49% and his grappling presents serious threats with 3.98 takedowns per fight at 48% accuracy and 1.8 submission attempts. He has a vulnerable 50% takedown defense that presents problems in scrambles when opponents counter-wrestle.
Mariscal measures 5’7″ with a 69 inch reach and 18-6 record. He showcases aggressive striking at 4.95 per minute with solid 56% accuracy while absorbing 3.07. His striking defense registers at 51%, and his grappling shows respectable threat with 2.85 takedowns per fight at 39% accuracy and 0.2 submission attempts. He has a strong 73% takedown defense that presents challenges against Sabatini’s wrestling-heavy approach.
Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal Predictions And Picks
This UFC fight breaks down to whether Sabatini’s elite submission game and wrestling control can overwhelm Mariscal’s superior striking volume and takedown defense. Sabatini holds clear advantages in grappling metrics, with 12 submission victories showing consistent finishing ability on the mat. His 3.98 takedowns per fight at 48% accuracy creates multiple opportunities to implement his ground game throughout three rounds.
The critical factor lies in Mariscal’s defensive wrestling and striking advantages. His 73% takedown defense significantly outpaces Sabatini’s 48% takedown accuracy. This suggests competitive scrambles that could keep the fight standing. On the feet, Mariscal’s 4.95 strikes per minute absolutely dwarfs Sabatini’s 1.87 output, creating massive volume advantages in standup exchanges. At 33 years old compared to Sabatini’s 35, Mariscal holds a slight youth advantage while absorbing more damage historically.
If we bet on this fight, we are going with Chepe Mariscal to win via unanimous decision.
Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal MMA Betting Odds
Pat Sabatini enters as a slight favorite at –118 on FanDuel. Meanwhile, Chepe Mariscal comes in as the +100 underdog. The pick’em odds reflect the contrast in styles and uncertainty around whether Sabatini’s grappling or Mariscal’s striking will dominate.
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The odds for the fight going the distance stand at -152. The odds favor judges deciding this matchup, with early finish odds at +120 reflecting both fighters’ ability to finish but also their proven durability throughout lengthy careers.
Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal Best Bets
Here are the best bets for Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal fight:
Mariscal Moneyline (+100)
Excellent value on the younger, more dynamic striker. His superior striking volume combined with strong 73% takedown defense should neutralize Sabatini’s primary weapon and control standup exchanges where he dominates output.
Fight Goes Distance (-152)
Solid bet at reasonable odds. Both fighters’ proven durability and contrasting styles make judges likely. Mariscal’s zero submission losses and Sabatini’s recent decision-heavy approach virtually guarantee this competitive battle reaches scorecards at Madison Square Garden.
Mariscal by Decision (+330)
Premium odds for a very competitive outcome. If Mariscal defends takedowns consistently, his striking volume accumulates rounds clearly. His defensive wrestling credentials make this an attractive longshot for a decisive victory on the judges’ cards.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Jasen Vinlove – Imagn Images)
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I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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