The stakes couldn’t be much higher for San Diego State and Boise State coming into this weekend’s Mountain West game.
The teams are tied atop the conference standings. The winner in this game gets a leg up on the regular-season title, and with it the opportunity to host the conference championship game.
The loser drops into a group of teams — there are five coming into the weekend — with two conference losses.
Boise State leads the all-time series 6-4, including last year’s 56-24 win over SDSU.
Here are five things to watch when the Aztecs (7-2, 4-1) take on the Broncos (6-3, 4-1) at Snapdragon Stadium:
1. SDSU’s defense
Which Aztecs defense shows up against Boise State — the one that recorded an FBS-best three shutouts or the one on the field for lopsided losses against Washington State and Hawaii?
“We weren’t being ourselves,” SDSU edge Trey White said this week of the Hawaii game. “We weren’t playing to our standard, and we had a couple self-inflicted wounds that ended up costing us and turned into a big momentum shift for Hawaii.
“We can’t have those if we want to be the team that we want to be. We’ve got to get better from that, and we need players to step up when their numbers are called on.”
If there was a bright side against Hawaii, it was that the defense did not allow a second-half score and limited the Rainbow Warriors to 86 yards over the final two periods after allowing four TDs and 300 yards in the first half.
SDSU is already without linebacker Tano Letuli, who suffered a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago. Defensive tackle Krishna Clay and cornerback Chris Johnson were listed as “questionable” to play against Boise State on Thursday’s availability report. Johnson missed last week’s game against Hawaii.
2. Boise State’s offense
Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen is sidelined with a right foot injury, so backup Max Cutforth will get his first start.
Cutforth had his challenges when he replaced Madsen against Fresno State, completing 14 of 27 passes for 106 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions in the 30-7 loss.
An off week gave coaches an extra seven days to prepare him for the Aztecs.
“I think we’ll see a much more polished plan for him this week,” SDSU defensive coordinator Rob Aurich said. “That staff will do a good job. I think they’ll see what he does well throughout this week and build a plan around the things he does well.”
Boise State will miss wide receiver Chris Marshall, who was listed as “out” on the team’s availability report. That still leaves the Broncos with three pass catchers with at least 20 receptions this season: graduate senior wide receiver Latrell Caples (26 catches, 351 yards, 3 TD), senior tight end Matt Lauter (24-232, TD) and senior wide receiver Ben Ford (21-325, 5 TD).
Boise State will likely lean on a running attack that’s averaging 184.9 yards a game (37th in the nation). Sophomore Dylan Riley (104 carries, 745 yards, 7 TD), redshirt freshman Sire Gaines (99-473, 5 TD) and graduate senior Malik Sherrod (64-317, 2 TD) lead the way.
3. Wet weather
The Aztecs did not play well in the rain last week at Hawaii. The silver lining is the wet weather prepared them for what is expected this week in San Diego.
The local forecast called for rain starting at 9 p.m. Friday night and throughout the day Saturday.
Boise State experienced light rain briefly in one game this season, but the Broncos have otherwise played in dry conditions. The Broncos did some wet ball drills in practice this week.
The Aztecs have had only three rain games in the past 100 home games dating to 2008.
Key note: The Snapdragon Stadium umbrella policy will be revised for the game, according to an SDSU official. Large umbrellas that impact sightlines are not permitted, but small, collapsible umbrellas that fit into permitted clear bags will be allowed.
4. Turnovers
Will a wet ball lead to more turnovers? It bears watching. Keep an eye on how diligent officials are at wiping off the ball before it’s placed and how quickly the ball is snapped after being placed.
SDSU did a good job of ball protection in the first half of the season. The Aztecs’ only turnovers in the season’s first six games were two interceptions against Northern Illinois. They have eight turnovers in the three games since, including two interceptions and two lost fumbles at Hawaii.
Boise State has 14 giveaways, with its nine interceptions ranking 100th in the nation.
The defenses have been opportunistic, especially when the ball is in the air. Both sides have 11 interceptions, which is tied for 14th nationally. Boise State also has five fumble recoveries, the 16 turnovers gained ranking 18th in the country.
5. Sustaining/completing drives
SDSU’s offense has sputtered at times. It produced only two field goals against both Hawaii and NIU and only one offensive touchdown against Fresno State.
The Aztecs were just 2-for-14 on third-down conversions against the Rainbows, dropping them to 31.9% for the season. That ranks 126th out of 136 FBS teams.
Boise State is a more respectable 44.4%(38th) in the third-down conversions, although the Broncos were 4-for-15 last time out against Fresno State.
Having the reliable leg of kicker Gabe Plascencia (16-for-18 on field goals) has helped SDSU to an 88.9% success rate (42nd) in the red zone.
Boise State is only 81.8% (84th) in the red zone, and the Broncos are going against an SDSU defense that ranks fifth in the nation in the category at 68.4%. The Broncos’ defense hasn’t been good at stopping opponents inside the 20-yard line, allowing a 90.1% success rate (117th).
Boise State (6-3, 4-1) at San Diego State (7-2, 4-1)
When: 7:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Snapdragon Stadium
TV: CBS Sports Network
Radio: 760-AM
