CAN DENVER’S PASS RUSH GET HOME?
The Broncos’ pass rush is on pace for a historic season — and it will need to be at its best against Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City.
The Chiefs’ offense has surged back in recent weeks, as Mahomes led the NFL in passing touchdowns and passing yards during a five-week span from Weeks 4-8. If Denver can pressure Mahomes, though, it could result in a different outcome.
In games in which Mahomes has been pressured at a rate lower than 25 percent this season, he is 4-1 and has completed 71.8 percent of his passes for 14 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 114.8 quarterback rating. In games when he’s been pressured at a higher rate, he’s 1-3 with a 55.4 completion percentage, three touchdowns, two interceptions and a 77.0 quarterback rating.
Denver’s 42.9 pressure rate this season, meanwhile, leads the NFL and is the highest of the Next Gen Stats era, which dates back to 2018.
While the Broncos have been able to bring pressure with just four rushers, they also have the fifth-highest blitz rate in the league. And through nine games, Mahomes’ 5.64 completion percentage and 83.8 passer rating vs. the blitz rank as career lows for Mahomes.
As Broncos fans have learned during his career, though, Mahomes has a knack for improvisation. He leads the NFL with 513 total yards on scrambles, posting 229 pass yards and 284 rush yards while on the move.
While getting after Mahomes, the Broncos will need to also keep him contained in the pocket.
“He’s been the best for a long time,” Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph said. “He’s a winner. The plays he can make off schedule, that makes it tough. They’re in the huddle and they have a play called, and you can defend that play perfectly and he can obviously buy time in the second act. That’s where he makes his explosive plays.”
The Broncos’ defense has held Mahomes in check in the three meetings since Joseph’s return to Denver, as the Chiefs have averaged fewer than 15 points per game in those meetings. And while Joseph downplayed the importance of that stat, another similar performance would certainly benefit the Broncos’ effort.
Whether in the red zone — where Denver’s top-ranked unit will face the Chiefs’ third-ranked group — or elsewhere, the Broncos could take a huge step toward a win if the team’s pass rush can make Mahomes uncomfortable.
HOW WILL THE BRONCOS RESPOND TO ADVERSITY?
The next-man-up mentality will be on display Sunday.
Denver ruled out five players for the Week 11 matchup, including starters Pat Surtain II, Alex Singleton and J.K. Dobbins.
“It’s our league,” Payton said. “You’ve heard me say that, and we’ve played teams earlier in the season that have been in this position. … It has to be the next man up.”
Surtain will miss his third consecutive game, and Denver will have to manage to slow the talented Rashee Rice without the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Rice has caught 13 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown over the past two games, and Payton said Rice’s return “has really helped” the Chiefs’ offense. The Broncos have held their last two opponents in check without Surtain, but Sunday will represent a different sort of challenge.
At linebacker, the Broncos should likely be able to rely on two experienced players in Dre Greenlaw and Justin Strnad. Greenlaw played a season-high 62 percent of the snaps in a Week 10 win over the Raiders as he recorded five tackles, a tackle for loss, a forced fumble and a pass defensed.
“It’s been remarkable,” Payton said of Greenlaw’s impact. “That goal-line stand a week or two ago [was impressive]. He’s a physical, physical tackler, and he has that ‘it.’ I’m glad he’s on our team.”
Payton said Strnad, who has started 14 games over the last two seasons, is also “extremely” valuable to the team.
Denver will also likely count on running back RJ Harvey, as Payton said the rookie will receive more opportunities. The young player, who has four total touchdowns in his last three games, said he’s set for the increased workload.
“I’m ready,” Harvey said Friday. “Whatever Coach needs me to do, I’m ready to go on the field. I had a great week of practice. [I’m] just ready to go.”
As the Broncos look to earn a win over the Chiefs, several players stepping up in the face of adversity will be key.
