Washington Commanders Start-Sit: Week 11 Fantasy Advice for Marcus Mariota, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Deebo Samuel Sr., Zach Ertz, and Others
The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Washington Commanders players heading into their matchup with the Miami Dolphins to help you craft a winning lineup.
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Marcus Mariota, QB
The Commanders were never really competitive with the Lions last week, eliminating all hope for offensive balance (running backs: 22 carries for just 71 yards).
I don’t think Miami puts it on Washington the same way Detroit did, and that should help. Still, this defense has looked improved over their past two games played on standard rest (wins over the Falcons and Bills), and that gives us the excuse we need not at all to be interested in this offense.
In theory, Marcus Mariota’s legs offer some cheat code potential, but he doesn’t have a 10-yard rush in consecutive outings, and if that continues, it robs him of the single-play upside that would give him a prayer at finishing top 15.
Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB
All three Washington running backs played 31-44% of the snaps, ran 6-9 routes, and handled at least one red zone touch.
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That’s about as even of a three-way split as you’ll see, and while the game script factored into some of that, there is no denying that this backfield lacks clarity.
Did I mention that the trio of Chris Rodriguez, Jeremy McNichols, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt combined for 14.5 PPR points?
There isn’t enough juice to squeeze from this backfield if it were all concentrated.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR
Deebo Samuel had the four-yard touchdown grab last week to save you if you went this direction, but 29 yards on five targets wasn’t exactly an encouraging performance with Terry McLaurin (quad) sidelined.
Treylon Burks and Robbie Anderson were among the receivers fighting for opportunities from Mariota on Sunday, and Samuel couldn’t separate himself in the target department. That’s obviously a concern, but he does get another chance on Sunday against a below-average defense with McLaurin again spectating.
This season, Samuel has a 75% catch rate from Mariota, averaging 1.96 fantasy points per target. If we can carry over that rate and get him more in the 7-9 target range, you’ve got yourself a reasonable flex.
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The matchup has him hovering around WR30 for me this week, but if he fails in this spot, he’ll likely be on the outside looking in at flex status in Week 13 when this team returns from bye, presumably with their WR1 back in the mix.
Zach Ertz, TE
Zach Ertz was serviceable against the Lions last week (4-54-0), but I think that’s about the best we can hope for in this Mariota-led offense. On Sunday, four different Commanders earned 3-5 targets, and that was in a game played without Terry McLaurin.
For the season, Ertz has a 7.8 aDOT and averages 2.13 PPR points per target from Jayden Daniels, numbers that shift to 10.0 and 1.56, respectively, under Mariota’s watch. If I can, this is an offense I’m actively distancing myself from, and the tight end position is certainly an easy spot to start.
If you’re only left with tight ends attached to below-average offenses, I’d prefer Theo Jenson and Harold Fannin moving forward than a player like Ertz playing out the string.
