The 4-5 Minnesota Vikings take on the 6-3 Chicago Bears on Sunday in what now is must-win game for the Vikings if they want to maintain a credible path to the postseason.
The Vikings’ chance of making the playoffs has a significant swing depending on the outcome of the game on Sunday- the Bears even more so.
The Vikings have just a 13% or so chance to make the playoffs according to this playoff simulator and with a loss on Sunday that chance drops to just 5% or 1 in 20. With a win, however, there chances improve to 22% or around 1 in 4.5.
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Looking Ahead with a Win
If the Vikings are able to win on Sunday, they could find themselves in a surprisingly close race within the NFC North division.
Here are the current NFC North standings with remaining opponents for each team:
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Detroit Lions (6-3) – @PHI, NYG, GB, DAL, @LAR, PIT, @MIN, @CHI
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Chicago Bears (6-3) – @MIN, PIT, @PHI, @GB, CLE, GB, @SF, DET
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Green Bay Packers (5-3-1) – @NYG, MIN, @DET, CHI, @DEN, @CHI, BAL, @MIN
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Minnesota Vikings (4-5) – CHI, @GB, @SEA, WAS, @DAL, @NYG, DET, GB
Outside of division opponents, the Lions face what looks to be three playoff-caliber teams in Philadelphia, the Rams, and Pittsburgh. The Bears also face three playoff-caliber teams in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and the 49ers. The Packers face two playoff-caliber teams outside the division in Denver and Baltimore. The Vikings face just one playoff-caliber team outside the division in Seattle.
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Looking at these schedules, it would not be the least bit surprising if the Bears finished 8-9, with losses to the Vikings, Steelers, Eagles, Packers, 49ers, and Lions. I doubt the Bears will be favored in any of those games. The Bears wins have come against teams with a combined .272 record.
It wouldn’t be that surprising if the Lions lost to the Eagles and Rams- they’re the underdog at Philadelphia and likely will be at LA too.
The Packers are now without star tight-end Tucker Kraft and starting center Elgton Jenkins, which are two big blows to the Packers offense, which was struggling at times with them. If the Vikings were able to sweep the Packers like they did last season, and the Packers also lose to the Lions, Broncos, and Ravens- I doubt they’ll be favored in any of those games- and split with the Bears, they would finish 7-9-1.
Lastly, if the Vikings can beat the Bears and sweep both the Packers and the remaining NFC East teams on their schedule (Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants) who will have nothing to play for, they’d be 9-6 not including the Lions game.
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That could setup a situation where week 17 the Lions are 10-5 and the Vikings are 9-6. If the Vikings won that game, they would both be 10-6 and the Vikings would have the tie-breaker having swept the Lions. That sets up for the Lions and Vikings both potentially finishing 11-6 and the Vikings owning the tie-breaker and winning the division.
Of course that’s the rosy scenario, but it wouldn’t be terribly surprising if the rest of the NFC North teams non-Vikings games played out that way. In fact, the above is probably the most likely scenario. The bigger issue is if the Vikings can break with their yo-yo pattern and begin to play consistently good football every week instead of every other week.
Wildcard Chances
If the Vikings aren’t able to win the division in the rosy scenario above, they have a chance to win a wildcard spot with a 9-8 record and possibly even with an 8-9 record. Let’s explore.
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First, the NFC East will have only one playoff team- the Eagles- this is already clear. The Cowboys are 3-5-1, the Commanders are 3-7 and the Giants are 2-8. All three of those teams are out.
In the NFC South, two teams are out- the Falcons at 3-6 and the Saints at 2-8. The Panthers are 5-5 but probably have at least four losses in their remaining schedule, which is at the Falcons, at the 49ers, Rams, at Saints, Bucs, Seahawks, at Bucs. They are likely to lose to the 49ers, Rams, Seahawks, and the Bucs at least once. They could even lose to the Falcons as well. But assuming they lose four more games, they would finish 8-9.
In the NFC West, the Cardinals are out at 3-6, but the Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers all look like they’ll make the playoffs. The Rams and Seahawks are both 7-2 and will fight it out for the division crown but both will make the playoffs. The 49ers at 6-4 are not going to win the division, but they have maybe only two more losses on their schedule, which is at the Cardinals, Panthers, at Browns, Titans, @Colts, Bears, Seahawks. The Colts and Seahawks look like the only losses for the 49ers, who have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way and could make the playoffs with an 11-6 record. It’s also worth noting that while the Seahawks are 7-2, their victories have come against teams with a collective .385 record. The best teams they’ve beaten are the Steelers, Jags, and Texans. They’ve lost to the Bucs and 49ers. They have a tough remaining schedule and could finish 10-7 potentially.
That leaves one wildcard spot left and the Vikings, Bears, Packers, and Panthers competing for it.
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If the Vikings beat the Bears, and the rest of the Bears schedule goes as forecast (most likely scenario), the Vikings would need to finish 8-9 to rank above the Bears.
If the Packers schedule goes as forecast, but let’s say the Vikings split with the Packers instead, the Packers would finish 8-8-1.
So, if the Vikings schedule goes as forecast, only they split with the Packers and lose to the Lions, they’d finish 9-8 and beat out the Packers and Bears and assuming the Panthers lose four more games as expected, would become the 7th seed in the playoffs while still having lost to the Seahawks, Packers, and Lions in the remaining games this season.
That’s not that outlandish a scenario. Probably better than the 22% chance the Vikings are given if they beat the Bears, but we’ll see how it plays out.
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