My Week 10 straight-up picks went 11-3 last week. My straight-up picks are 31-10 over the past three weeks. Let’s keep it going.
I’m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series.
Keep in mind that since the idea here is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence level scores.
If you want to see my confidence picks ranked 1-15 (pick to win), scroll to the table at the bottom.
Here is how my Week 10 picks fared, along with my current season record.
- Overall picks to win: 11-3 in Week 10 (103-45-1 for the season)
Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 6-1 (65-32-1)
Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 5-2 (38-13) - Overall to cover the spread: 7-6-1 (75-70-4)
Cover the spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 4-4-1 (62-57-3)
Cover the spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 3-2 (13-13-1)
Now let’s get into the Week 11 selections.
All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-13)
It’s easy to see why the Patriots are a 13-point favorite in this game. What is also easy to see is that the metrics for this game suggest it will be much closer than that. The Jets rate equal to New England in many categories and are notably better in special teams. New York is on a two-game win streak, and their losses to Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Denver were by a combined six points. The Jets don’t have enough firepower to win this game, but they should be able to keep it closer than expected. That’s why I’m picking New England to win but New York to cover.
- Pick to win: New England (Confidence level: 7)
- Pick to cover the spread: New York (Confidence level: 3)
Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins (-2.5) (in Madrid)
Miami’s win over Buffalo last week was no fluke. The Dolphins have solid metrics in a wide variety of categories. The same cannot be said for the Commanders. That is especially true on defense. Washington has some of the worst rush defense stats over the past month, and its pass coverage numbers aren’t any better. Those numbers lead me to pick Miami to both win and cover. Since the game has the variable of being in Madrid, those confidence levels will be fairly low, however.
- Pick to win: Miami (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover the spread: Miami (CL: 2)
Houston Texans (-7) at Tennessee Titans
The metrics for this game suggest that this will be a very close contest. But this may be a case where the numbers don’t quite tell the full story. Tennessee is abysmal at running the ball and even worse at stopping the run. Houston is inconsistent, but can run the ball, stop the run and generate takeaways. The Texans’ passing attack is also a step ahead of Tennessee’s and may be two steps ahead if C.J. Stroud can return from the concussion he suffered in Week 9. Because every Titans loss this year has been by seven or more points, I’ll take Houston to both win and cover.
- Pick to win: Houston (CL: 5)
- Pick to cover the spread: Houston (CL: 3)
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
This is one of the most evenly matched games on the Week 11 board. Ben Johnson’s offense is finally hitting its stride, so Chicago gets every offensive advantage. Minnesota has a slight defensive edge and a huge special teams advantage. Those pluses cancel each other out value-wise. In cases like this, I’ll take the home team to win and the road team to cover.
- Pick to win: Minnesota (CL: 1)
- Pick to cover the spread: Chicago (CL: 1)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
It is difficult to overstate just how terrible the Bengals’ defense has been this year. They are dead last in covering tight ends and stopping planned rush plays over the past month. This has caused their last three games to go into scoreboard shootout mode. That was enough to win a high-scoring game over Pittsburgh in Week 7, but that was likely due to the Steelers being overconfident headed into that game. That loss will keep Pittsburgh levelheaded this time around.
- Pick to win: Pittsburgh (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover the spread: Pittsburgh (CL: 2)
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Carolina seems like a tough team to get a read on. The reality is the Panthers have been very consistent in one department — an inability to score points. Carolina has scored 45 points over the past four weeks combined and has posted a single-digit point total in two of those games. The Falcons posted 48 points over the past two weeks in contests against good defenses (New England and Indianapolis). That bodes well for Atlanta to score enough points to outpace a dismal Carolina offense.
- Pick to win: Atlanta (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover the spread: Atlanta (CL: 2)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
The Bills looked awful last week, but that game brought to mind the numerous times the Brady and Belichick Patriots teams would travel to South Florida and lay a proverbial egg. A return home is just what Buffalo needs to get back on track. The Bills have a big stat edge in rushing offense and have much better pass coverage metrics. Tampa Bay does well on the road, however, so I’ll pick the Bills to win but the Buccaneers to cover.
- Pick to win: Buffalo (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Tampa Bay (CL: 2)
Green Bay Packers (-7) at New York Giants
The Giants come into this game with plenty of question marks. They have a new interim head coach and could be missing Jaxson Dart, who may not clear the concussion protocol in time for this game. Even if Dart is able to play, the Packers have advantages in nearly every category. The biggest edge may be facing a New York rush defense that has allowed nearly 750 rushing yards over the past four games. That should lead to a big game from Josh Jacobs.
- Pick to win: Green Bay (CL: 7)
- Pick to cover the spread: Green Bay (CL: 5)
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Chargers’ defense may have been the best in the league over the past three weeks. Jesse Minter’s platoon has given up next to nothing on the ground or in the air. Jacksonville may not have the offense to offset that advantage. What the Jaguars do have is an overwhelming special teams edge. This is also a cross-country early afternoon kickoff for a Los Angeles team that has struggled in all three games this year that meet those criteria. That’s why I’ll take the Chargers to win but the Jaguars to cover.
- Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Jacksonville (CL: 2)
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals’ 44-22 loss last week was much worse than that score suggests. It was also an indicator that Arizona is regressing badly under Jonathan Gannon. San Francisco has its own issues, but the 49ers grade out nearly as well in this matchup as Seattle did against the Cardinals last week. That was my highest confidence-level pick in Week 10. This one won’t quite match that confidence level, but I’m picking San Francisco to win by a good margin.
- Pick to win: San Francisco (CL: 8)
- Pick to cover the spread: San Francisco (CL: 6)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-3)
This is a true heavyweight clash. Seattle may be the best team in the NFL right now, yet Los Angeles can match them in nearly every stat category. One place where the Rams should have a notable advantage is in turnovers. These defenses are fairly equal in their ability to create takeaways. The Rams’ offense is much better at avoiding giveaways. Combine that with this game being in Los Angeles, and I’ll take the Rams to win but Seattle to cover.
- Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Seattle (CL: 1)
Baltimore Ravens (-8) at Cleveland Browns
The amazing part of the Ravens’ recent turnaround is that their win streak has occurred despite Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry not playing at their usual elite production levels. The Baltimore defense has been leading the way and is getting better every week. The Browns are doing the best they can with Dillon Gabriel and a solid defense, but that’s not going to be anywhere near enough to win this game.
- Pick to win: Baltimore (CL: 8)
- Pick to cover the spread: Baltimore (CL: 6)
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Denver Broncos
It’s understandable that the Chiefs are a road favorite here, given how they have dominated this series over the years. It’s also worth pointing out that these teams have split the last two meaningful games in this series. Denver matches Kansas City in every offensive category. The Broncos definitely have a better pass rush. Denver is 5-0 at home this year. The Chiefs have the desperation edge because a loss here will give the Broncos a de facto 4.5-game lead over Kansas City. That motivation is not enough to change my pick. I’m taking Denver for the upset win outright.
- Pick to win: Denver (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Denver (CL: 4)
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
These teams were polar opposites last week. Detroit’s offense got back into high gear with Dan Campbell calling plays. Philadelphia’s defense had by far its best performance of the season in a slugfest win over Green Bay. Those performances lead to stat trends that almost entirely even out. This game would be a pick ’em on a neutral field. Because it’s in Philadelphia, I’ll pick the Eagles to win and the Lions to cover.
- Pick to win: Philadelphia (CL: 1)
- Pick to cover the spread: Detroit (CL: 1)
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
There may not be a team with a lower offensive floor than the Raiders. Las Vegas has scored fewer than 10 points on four occasions, including in three of the past five games. The Raiders should be able to hit a double-digit point total against a Cowboys club that has allowed 22-plus points in every game this year. That may not be enough versus a Dallas offense that has as much firepower as any offense in the NFL.
- Pick to win: Dallas (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover the spread: Dallas (CL: 3)
