ORCHARD PARK – As if the Buffalo Bills passing game doesn’t have enough issues going into Sunday’s big test against the Buccaneers, now it is missing its best playmaker.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid suffered a hamstring injury in last week’s ugly loss to the Dolphins and he’s almost certainly out the next two games because after they play Tampa Bay at Highmark Stadium, the Bills have a quick turnaround for a Thursday night game in Houston.
“It’s concerning,” coach Sean McDermott admitted regarding not having Kincaid at a time when the passing game is struggling so much. “He’s a good player and you saw the production he’s had of late in particular and the season that he’s had. It’s an opportunity for somebody to step up, and then within that, how creative can we be from a play design standpoint to get somebody else going.”
In a year where the Bills’ lack of production from their receiving corps continues to be a major issue, Kincaid has been one of Josh Allen’s most trusted targets as he has 29 catches while his 448 yards trail only Khalil Shakir (457) and his four TDs have already matched the number he scored in his first two seasons combined.
His absence is going to be felt, though the way the Bills have utilized Kincaid, it’s probably survivable.
How the Bills have used Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid’s snap counts have been frustratingly low this year because the Bills have relied so much on their running game and their preference for heavy personnel with the other two tight ends, Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes, on the field because they are both better blockers than Kincaid.
He’s had a couple very nice games when he surpassed 100 yards against the Patriots and Chiefs, games in which he caught all 12 of his combined targets, but baked in are several low-impact games, some of which he was on the field for fewer snaps than both Knox and Hawes.
Kincaid has been a somewhat enigmatic player since he arrived as a first-round draft pick in 2023. He was advertised as a game-changing type of tight end, the kind the Bills have never really had at that position, and general manager Brandon Beane believed in him so much, he actually traded up a few spots in that draft to secure him.
As a rookie he set a Bills’ record for most receptions by a tight end with 73, but they went for a rather mundane 673 yards and included just two touchdowns and 29 first downs. And then in 2024, his injury issues began. He suffered a midseason knee sprain, missed four-plus games and was never the same player after he returned as he caught just 16 passes for 163 yards and no TDs in seven games counting the postseason.
This year, Kincaid missed the Week 6 game in Atlanta because of an oblique injury, and now he’s hurt again. Factoring in that he has already missed 1 ½ games, his 29 catches rank tied for 20th among all NFL tight ends, his 448 yards are eighth, and his four TDs are tied for seventh. Good, not great, which has been the story of his brief NFL career.
Who will the Buffalo Bills passing game turn to with Dalton Kincaid out?
The Bills are fortunate to have good depth in Knox and Hawes, and they’ll be fine when Allen hands off to Cook, but neither tight end comes close to Kincaid in terms of being able to make plays down the field as a receiver.
So how can Buffalo manage while Kincaid convalesces? Getting wide receiver Joshua Palmer back would certainly help as he is expected to return to action after missing the last 3 ½ games and step into that void in the intermediate range that Kincaid’s unavailability creates.
“I think he adds a lot of juice to what we’ve got going on,” Allen said. “Very crisp route runner, and any time we can get him involved in the offense it’s going to be a good thing for us. So, yeah, hopefully he progresses well this week, and we can get him back out on the field and making plays for us.”
Palmer played unevenly before his injury as he had just 14 catches, but they did go for 234 yards, a 16.7 average and that figure is the best on the team, slightly ahead of Kincaid’s 15.4 average per catch. The injury was frustrating because, “I felt like I was about to get in rhythm, for sure,” he said of the Atlanta game when he had two early catches for 60 yards before going down. “I wouldn’t say I’m restarting now, but it’s just continuing.”
Palmer didn’t want to discuss his game status, but he did say that he’s ready to do his part to kickstart the passing game.
“I feel like I can play anywhere, any spot, inside, outside, go down the field, intermediate, short, wherever they need me to be is what I’m willing to do,” he said. “If they need me to run deep, I’ll run deep as many times as I can. I plan on being universal around the field. I think they do a good job using me around the field since I’ve been here, so this week it’s just seeing what the game plan is going to be.”
In addition to Palmer, the Bills will probably have Shakir who, at times during the week seemed unlikely to play due to rib and ankle injuries, but McDermott said Friday he should be able to play. Then there’s the possibility of calling up from the practice squad Gabe Davis and/or Mecole Hardman.
The Bills need to try some new things and injecting any of Palmer, Davis or Hardman would give Allen some different options beyond the uninspiring trio of Keon Coleman, Elijah Moore and Curtis Samuel.
“I think Josh will help fill that void,” Allen said. “Dalton’s going to be tough to replace in terms of that, but, yeah, it’s going to take everybody to step up and make plays. It’s going to take, Dawson and Hawes stepping up and making plays, which I know they’re extremely capable of doing. I’ve got a lot of trust in both those guys. And ultimately, coming down to Sunday, executing at a high level.”
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for more than four decades including 36 years as the full-time beat writer/columnist for the D&C. He has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
