Heading into cold and windy Orchard Park on Sunday afternoon, the 6-3, NFC South-leading Bucs knew a loss would be problematic even beyond the fact that it would mean back-to-back losses. After all, a loss would mean they were guaranteed to lose a game of cushion in their division lead to either the 5-5 Panthers or 3-6 Falcons, who were matching up in Atlanta on Sunday.
Of course, considering the lead over the Panthers was only 1.5 games and the Falcons’ deficit was three games, the preferable result entering the day would’ve been a win for the Falcons.
Well, bad news came in quick succession for the Bucs at the end of the 1:00 p.m. window of games. Because just after a game-ending 13-0 run by Buffalo left Tampa Bay with a 44-32 loss, Carolina made a comeback on Atlanta. The Falcons led 24-19 late, but Bryce Young engineered a nine-play, 65-yard drive, found Tetairoa McMillan for a 12-yard touchdown and then hit Jalen Coker for the two-point conversion to take a 27-24 lead with 1:08 to go.
Atlanta did respond with a late field goal to force overtime, but a Ryan Fitzgerald field goal with 5:10 to go in overtime gave Carolina a 30-27 win. Despite being knocked out of the game briefly early on, Bryce Young set the Panthers’ single-game passing record in the victory, throwing for 448 yards and three touchdowns on 31-of-45 passing.
Panthers HC Dave Canales and QB Bryce Young – Photo by: USA Today
The Carolina win combined with Tampa Bay’s loss in Buffalo leaves Dave Canales and Co. just a half-game behind Todd Bowles’ team in the NFC South race.
Of course, with the Falcons losing, falling to 3-7 overall and dropping to 0-3 in NFC South play, their days as a threat to the Bucs’ pursuit of a division title five-peat have seemingly come to an end. But with the Panthers only a half-game back and both meetings with the Bucs still to come in late December and early January, the division feels very much up for grabs.
Carolina has won five of its last seven games since starting 1-3, while Tampa Bay has suddenly lost two of three and faces a tough test in Week 12 with a Sunday night game against the Rams in Los Angeles. As important as it is for the Bucs to try to avoid a three-game losing streak anyway, there could be some added pressure on them by the time that game kicks off. If the Panthers can beat the 49ers on the road next Sunday afternoon, a Buccaneer loss would mean a division lead for Canales and Carolina.
While that wouldn’t be the end of the season for the Bucs by any means, especially given the two head-to-head meetings coming up in Weeks 16 and 18, it would be unfamiliar territory. Dating back to the start of the 2021 season, Tampa Bay has held at least a share of the division lead in 69 of the last 83 weeks.
NFC South Standings Through Week 11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 6-4 (2-0 in NFC South)
Carolina Panthers – 6-5 (2-1 in NFC South) — 0.5 games back
Atlanta Falcons – 3-7 (0-3 in NFC South) — 3 games back
New Orleans Saints – 2-8 (1-1 in NFC South) — 4 games back
Upcoming Schedule for NFC South Contenders:
Bucs: at Rams (8-2), vs. Cardinals (3-7), vs. Saints (2-8), vs. Falcons (3-7)
Panthers: at 49ers (7-4), vs. Rams (8-2), BYE WEEK, at Saints (2-8)
Falcons: at Saints (2-8), at Jets (2-8), vs. Seahawks (7-3), at Bucs (6-4)
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today
What could help Tampa Bay is that some key players could be returning in the coming weeks, plus the schedule does lighten up after Week 12 with three straight games against teams that have a combined record of 8-22. Meanwhile, Carolina does have a tough game at San Francisco in Week 12 and will see the Rams to close out November.
As far as the NFC playoff picture goes, the Bucs remain the lowest seed out of the division leaders, and there’s now a game of separation between them and the No. 3 seed. Heading into Sunday night’s game between the 7-2 Eagles and 6-3 Lions, it’s the 7-3 Bears who lead the NFC North and sit in the spot immediately ahead of the Bucs. Chicago beat Minnesota on Sunday for its third straight win and seventh win in its last eight games.
Elsewhere, the Rams held on late for a win over the Seahawks, giving them the NFC West lead and dropping Seattle to the top NFC Wild Card spot. If the season ended right now, Wild Card Weekend would feature a rematch of that wild Week 5 game between Tampa Bay and Seattle, this time at Raymond James Stadium. The Rams, meanwhile, hold the top spot in the NFC over the Eagles, though a Philadelphia win on Sunday night would change that.
The Packers beat the Giants to hold onto the final wild card spot, keeping the 49ers – who beat the Cardinals in Week 11 – right on the outside looking in.
NFC Standings Through Week 11 (*Before Sunday Night Football*)
1. Los Angeles Rams – 8-2
2. Philadelphia Eagles – 7-2
3. Chicago Bears – 7-3
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 6-4
5. Seattle Seahawks – 7-3
6. Detroit Lions – 6-3
7. Green Bay Packers – 6-3-1
———- IN THE HUNT ———-
8. San Francisco 49ers – 7-4
9. Carolina Panthers – 6-5
10. Minnesota Vikings – 4-6
