The touring Grizzlies have lost four in a row- being the worst offense in the NBA over that span-, but are looking for atonement in San Antonio. The hosts will be without Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, but they are coming in with a desperation mentality to protect home court, as they gave up two last week at Frost Bank Center to the Golden State Warriors, courtesy of Stephen Curry going ballistic on both nights.
The Grizzlies are still winless after two days of rest, and lately, they work too hard to get buckets, while the opposite can be said about their opponents.
Additionally, the Spurs are a slower-paced (23rd) team that is great on the glass. But being without Wemby removes their security blanket, and the runway to the hoop is clear for takeoff.
Slow down De’Aaron Fox and limit 3-point shots for the Spurs
The Spurs don’t need to be at full strength to manipulate schemes, as they have many weapons who move the ball well, even when some of their best guys are out. They’ll still have the services of All-Star De’Aaron Fox, possibly the fastest player in the NBA with the ball. A quarter of his actions will be screen rolls, and he’s had two straight nights recording double-figure assists. Memphis will need a vintage defensive performance from Kenny the Pope.
Now consider that the overwhelming majority of 3-pointers in the league are not tightly guarded. The Grizzlies will have to be sharp to jump on passes and to prevent shooters from having a clean pocket because they give up the fourth-most open 3-pointers per game to the opponent, which means 22.3 attempts with the closest defender six feet away or more.
Somehow, the Grizzlies have been sort of lucky, allowing that many open treys, but only getting burned on 37.5 percent. Lax coverage is not a recipe that will work on Tuesday, as the Spurs are much more accurate at home, and never underestimate how hard the bench players go when mainstays are out.
Expose Luke Kornet
Kornet is a fine backup big man who does well at protecting the rim. Yet, his weakness is that he needs to drop back most of the time against screen rolls. The Spurs are also down one of their top screen navigators in Castle, so there will be plenty of open looks against him.
Jeremy Sochan or Harrison Barnes should get some of the backup center minutes behind Kornet, but the Grizzlies need to punish them for going small.
Find Edey
Being without an All-Star point guard will cripple any team. Unless a team is going to run a “read and react” offense, the next best option to make up for some of the lost playmaking is feeding the threat in the post. Understand this: post players are the real floor spacers because they attract help all the time. Zach Edey’s size and strength advantage will give everyone except Kornet big problems. This strategy also depends on Edey reacting quickly to help and getting rid of the ball without turning it over.
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