What is the polar vortex? How it can impact snow, freezes in the U.S.
The polar vortex is a large area of circulating cold air above the North Pole. Strong winds keep it contained, but when it weakens, it can wobble and stretch.
Winter storm warnings across parts of the country are threatening up to two feet of snow this week, as people look ahead to the Thanksgiving holiday travel forecast. Here’s what to expect for New Jersey.
AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting major travel disruptions across large swaths of the country as a storm system is set to batter much of the western United States with heavy snow and cold rain over the holiday, while the Northeast will see mainly rain ahead of Thanksgiving Day.
The storm system is forecast to bring mostly rain across the Northeast on Wednesday, Nov. 26 that will track toward the Atlantic coast by Thanksgiving Day-Thursday, according to AccuWeather. However, this storm may end as a “period of snow or snow showers across northern New York state and northern New England on Thursday morning.”
On the back side of the Thanksgiving storm system, gusty winds are forecast to spread from the Great Lakes in to the Northeast, impacting air travel, airports and high-profile vehicles. Dangerously high wind gusts could impact the Macy’s Day Parade in New York City and the Dunkin’ Donuts Thanksgiving Day Parade in Philadelphia — grounding some balloons.
Most of the Northeast is otherwise expected to remain “rain and snow-free” on Thanksgiving Day with the exception of northern New England, where parts of Northwestern Pennsylvania, Upstate New York, and northern portions of Vermont and New Hampshire may get 1-3 inches of snow and parts of Maine may see up to 10 inches of ‘fresh powder.’
On Black Friday through Saturday night after Thanksgiving, another large storm system coming from the west is set to bring wind, rain, ice and snow to most of Pennsylvania and Upstate New York while the rest of the Northeast will get hit with frigid cold temperatures.
While an overall warmer-than-average fall season was predicted by the Old Farmer’s Almanac for 2025 for the United States and most of New Jersey, the most northern parts of the Garden State are forecast to see cooler-than-average temperatures and dry conditions with lower-than average precipitation.
The first measurable snowfall in the Northeast region has come as early as late September for areas of Vermont and Maine in prior years, while Newark, New Jersey has gotten it as early as October 20, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center, with an overall average date for most areas ranging from October to late December.
- Newark, NJ – Nov. 9 is the average date of first measurable snow
- Kennedy Airport, NY – Dec. 9 is the average date of first measurable snow
- LaGuardia Airport, NY – Dec. 10 is the average date of first measurable snow
- Willmington, DE – Dec. 17 is the average date of first measurable snow
- Philadelphia, PA – Dec. 19 is the average date of first measurable snow
- Atlantic City, NJ – Dec. 23 is the average date of first measurable snow
This year, Thanksgiving 2025 falls on Thursday, Nov. 27 and according to AAA reports, it’s anticipated that 89% of Americans heading out for the holiday will travel by car that week, while 7% fly.
Here’s what The Old Farmer’s Almanac says about the Thanksgiving forecast and the New Jersey winter weather predictions.
What is The Old Farmer’s Almanac Thanksgiving 2025 weather forecast for NJ?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for “sunshine in much of the East” and rainy in the West with some snow limited to a few states on the North tier of the country, including New England.
New Jersey and the Atlantic Cooridor are forecast to get cooler than average temperatures by the holiday, albeit amid bright skies and dry conditions, according to The Old Farmer’s Almanac predictions for “smooth travel and pleasant conditions without rain or snow delays.”
What is the Old Farmer’s Almanac winter weather forecast for 2025/26?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac winter weather forecast 2025-2026 calls for “mostly mild — with pockets of wild.” But for most of New Jersey, that forecast says “Milder and drier, with most snow falling around the holidays and late winter.”
Temperatures are predicted to be above normal with the coldest spells coming in mid- to late December, early and late January.
Precipation is forecast to be below normal, translating to below normal snowfall. The most snow is expected to arrive in late December, early January, and late February, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
How much snow will New Jersey get in 2025-26?
Precipitation and snowfall is expected to be below normal for the upcoming 2025-26 winter season in New Jersey, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
Average snowfall totals in New Jersey can vary from as little as 10.2 inches in Beach Haven or 13.4″ in Lambertville to as much as 31.5″ in Newark or 29″ in New Brunswick, according to Current Results.
Last year’s 2024-2025 snow totals in New Jersey, according to the National Weather Service, showed Trenton with the highest total of 14.2″, Atlantic City with 13.9″ and Newark at 13.6″.
When is winter solstice 2025?
Winter solstice 2025, which marks the start of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, will occur on Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025, 10:03 a.m. Eastern.
How accurate is the Old Farmer’s Almanac?
Weather predictions are accurate about 80% of the time, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac website, citing inaccuracies can be reflections of abnormal weather patterns.
Maria Francis is a Pennsylvania-based journalist with the Mid-Atlantic Connect Team
