Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 127.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
The Wolves have become bullies. That’s the simplest explanation I can offer on my favorite squad: they push around the weak kids on the playground, but fold when a tough kid like Denver comes for them. This has been especially true since Anthony Edwards returned to a full workload, as the Wolves are averaging 126.2 PPG in those 6 games. I’m not loving this new bully persona, but tonight it’s one that can certainly be exploited, as the weakest nerdy kid in the NBA is coming to town.
Washington truly is pathetic, leading the league in most points allowed by a wide margin. Their defensive efficiency mark of 1.206 points per possession allowed is miles worse than the bottom team of the past several seasons. So the Wolves should be able to take whatever lunch money they want tonight, as they’ve turned into a top-5 team for offensive rating, shooting metrics, and three-point percentage. With the Wizards playing at the second-fastest tempo in the league, Minnesota will get all the scoring chances they can handle and I think they cash in a ton of them.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Wizards @ Timberwolves -10 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Just as the Wizards give up the most points overall, they also give up the most before halftime, having overtaken Brooklyn recently which is saying something. The Wolves meanwhile have done very well offensively in first halves of that 6 game stretch with Ant fully healthy, averaging 64.2 points before half. They’re also 3rd in the league for average first half margin at home, while Washington is 29th and averages a minus-9.9 margin in road games. The Wolves put it on a bad Dallas team the other night before halftime, and that should just be a warmup for running the Wizards out of Target Center tonight.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-PHI
For weeks there we were getting first quarter totals in the 60’s for Philadelphia games, seemingly regardless of who they were playing. Now the past couple of games have had significantly lower numbers, but I don’t see some kind of dramatic stylistic shift out of the Sixers, so a lower total just equals value in my book.
The Raptors aren’t nearly as bad defensively to start games as Philly, who still sits last in first quarter points allowed. But they had no trouble getting into a track meet with the Sixers in the first meeting, piling up 76 points in the opening quarter. While Joel Embiid and Kelly Oubre played in that game and will miss tonight, Philadelphia has had no trouble dealing with lineup turmoil and still going wild in first quarters, so I’m jumping on the discounted number here.
NBA (1 Unit) Denver Nuggets -4.5 First Quarter @ New Orleans Pelicans (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Altitude
The Nuggets better be in a bad mood for tonight’s game. I know I am, as the sting of their upset loss to Chicago on Monday is still hitting. You won’t see that kind of loss very often out of Denver, and I think this ultra-talented team will be able to bounce back against one of the softest opponents possible. The Pelicans sit dead last in average first quarter margin, are remarkably averaging a minus-9.1 margin at home after a brutal stretch, and should still be without Zion Williamson tonight.
He played when these teams met in Denver but it didn’t matter, as the Nuggets rolled to a 9-point first quarter lead. The Pelicans haven’t covered this number in any of their 6 straight losses, getting absolutely abused to start games. That’s exactly what I see a motivated and angry Nuggets team doing, so I’ll lay the points here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Sacramento Kings Team Total Under 106.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OK
It’s mid-November and these teams are playing their final meeting against each other tonight. That’s weird, but it also provides valuable data points, like how the Kings have scored exactly 101 points in both of the previous meetings. And it’s actually been the second half of both games when OKC has put the clamps on defensively, which is expected since they lead the league in second-half points allowed, so don’t stray to the first half total expecting the Kings to clear this in garbage time.
The Thunder lead the league in defense and it’s not close, they play a methodical style that grinds opposing offenses down, and they’ll get the Kings without Domantas Sabonis tonight. All that adds up to another defensive gem being turned in by an OKC squad that is absolutely rolling.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arizona +5.5 @ UConn (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS1
With a heavyweight bout like this so early in the season, it comes down to who’s been tested more and how did they do in those tests. Arizona is the clear winner in that comparison here, as they’ve taken down two opponents so far that are top-25 KenPom squads, both away from home.
UConn on the other hand really struggled to put away a BYU team that is still finding its legs, and they were carved up by AJ Dybantsa in a way that Arizona phenom Koa Peat can replicate. He and Jaden Bradley are an incredible duo on both ends of the floor and will keep Arizona competitive in this massive game. I agree with the metrics gurus that have this inside the key number of 5 points, so I’ll take it with the more battle-tested Wildcats tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Florida Gulf Coast/Samford Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This total has been crashing from the open of 159.5 where I thought it might be a tough too high, but now it’s time to buy the dip. I don’t think this will be a fast-paced game like other years would’ve seen from these teams, but efficiency is a fabulous driver of overs too.
That’s where I think both teams produce in bunches, as neither defense can stop much of anything. Gulf Coast in particular has been horrible at keeping the ball out of the hoop, ranked 356th in effective field goal defense and 365th in two-point defense. That’s why all 3 of their D1 games have flown over this total, and Samford is very capable of making it 4-for-4 tonight.
The Bulldogs should turn this into a 3-point contest and they’re one of the best at piling up points from deep, but they can’t stop anything either. Samford really struggles to guard the three-point line at 350th nationally for percentage allowed, so these two teams that are in the bottom quarter for adjusted defensive efficiency should allow enough to get over this discounted total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-22 (-4.75 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
