The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (4-6, 3-3 Sun Belt) visit the Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-5, 4-2) Thursday in Jonesboro, Arkansas. The contest at Centennial Bank Stadium will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the Louisiana vs. Arkansas State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Louisiana last played on Nov. 8 when it defeated the -3.5 Texas State Bobcats 42-39 (Over 63). The Cajuns, who defeated the Red Wolves 55-19 last season, nearly coughed up a big lead in what marked their second straight win. ULL led 42-20 with 13 minutes remaining
Arkansas State had a 4-game win streak come to an end in its last game, which was also Nov. 8. The +6.5 Wolves fell to the Southern Miss Golden Eagles 27-21 (Under 54.5). ASU, which has been an against-the-spread victor in its last 2 home games against ULL, is 5-0 ATS at home this fall.
ULL and ASU first met on the gridiron in 1953. The Cajuns are 29-21-1 in the all-time series, including a 55-19 win last season
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Louisiana at Arkansas State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 6:21 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Louisiana +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Arkansas State -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Louisiana +2.5 (-105) | Arkansas State -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 53.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Louisiana at Arkansas State picks and predictions
Prediction
Arkansas State 24, Louisiana 21
No interest; PASS.
ASU has been beating the number on its home turf, and the home side has held sway in recent series meetings. Against the spread, the home team has prevailed in 4 consecutive games.
The Wolves threw for 337 yards in their last game, and that was against a Southern Miss squad which has been solid vs. the pass. Arkansas State does especially well in using its pass game to stay on schedule. ULL, which was torched for 360 passing yards in its last game, can be a bit leaky in allowing big plays through the air.
Sun Belt rival Troy is a talent-level comp for these 2. The Cajuns lost to Troy by 13; the Wolves defeated the Trojans by the same margin. Mix in a win over the Georgia Southern Eagles (by 10) as another green check mark in ASU’s comp column.
ASU tends to crank out more value drives, more effective trips down the field collecting first downs and swinging field position. The Wolves figure to have an edge in special teams as well. In a low-scoring game, peg ARKANSAS STATE -2.5 (-115) with sliver of leverage.
Four of the last 6 series games have hit the Under (4-2). The Red Wolves’ last 8 games have seen the Under go 8-0.
Louisiana likes to run the ball. Rain is in the forecast. Neither side is adept at creating havoc plays on defense. And these 2 offenses rank 13th (ULL) and 14th (ASU) in the 14-team Sun Belt in red-zone offense (TD percentage).
The UNDER 53.5 (-105) is the best value play in this midweek match-up.
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