Hawks vs Spurs: Game Preview, Injury Report, Projected Starting Lineup for Tonight’s Matchup
After Trae Young went down with an injury, many expected the Hawks to sink in his absence. Instead, they won five straight and looked like a great two-way team albeit with some offensive limitations that Young’s absence causes. Those limitations reared their head last game against the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons are currently the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and they’d won 10 straight games heading into the Hawks matchup. They showed they were the better team against Atlanta, winning by a score of 120-112 that doesn’t really illustrate that the Hawks were fairly non-competitive in this game. The Pistons never trailed in this game and Atlanta just didn’t have enough offensive firepower nor the defensive stops necessary to win.
His efficiency suffered, but Jalen Johnson posted his fourth straight game with 20+ points (25), 8+ rebounds (8) and 7+ assists (9) while also going 3-5 from deep. His three-point shot has started to connect at a much higher clip than it was earlier in the season and it’s been of great benefit to Atlanta’s offense. Unfortunately, his defense wasn’t quite up to the same mark. That was true of multiple Hawks starters – Onyeka Okongwu and Nickeil Alexander-Walker both finished with plus-minuses of -22 and -19 respectively because the Hawks couldn’t get many stops in their minutes. Okongwu had 21 points and made four threes while NAW had 25, but Atlanta needed them to be better on defense and they weren’t up to the task tonight. Off the bench, Mo Gueye excelled with 11 points and 11 rebounds, but the rest of Atlanta’s second unit was quiet.
They are now slated to face a San Antonio Spurs roster that is starting to adjust to life without Victor Wembanyama. The star French center has been sidelined with a calf injury, but the Spurs have won two games by double-digits in his absence. However, those games were against the Kings and Grizzlies, who aren’t among the most competitive teams at the moment. Since the Spurs aren’t playing at full strength and might be surviving by playing weaker competition, it’s reasonable to be optimistic about Atlanta’s chances of getting back into the win column even if they can’t afford to overlook the Spurs.
By the Numbers
Feb 5, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle (5) is defended by Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels (5) in the third quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images
The Hawks’ offense wasn’t completely dismal, but their lacking performance against Detroit left something to be desired. Still, Atlanta is 18th in points, 8th in FG%, 14th in 3P%, 17th in FT%, 24th in rebounds (25th in OREB), 1st in assists and 17th in turnovers per game. They’re 18th in offensive rating on the year, which is a respectable number when considering that Young has barely played for them.
Atlanta’s defense also had a mediocre night against Detroit, but the larger sample of games thus far still suggests they’re a good defense. On a per-game basis, Atlanta ranks 11th in points allowed, 8th in FG% allowed, 10th in 3P% allowed, 25th in rebounds allowed, 4th in steals and 9th in blocks. They’re 8th in defensive rating on the year and it’s been critical to their relative success with Young out.
The Spurs aren’t a stellar offense, but they’ve adopted more of a team-focused approach with Wembanyama out and it’s resulted in them being solid. They’re 14th in points, 4th in FG%, 15th in 3P%, 16th in FT%, 11th in rebounds (18th in OREB), 12th in assists and 22nd in turnovers per game. This is a team that still needs to be respected on offense despite missing their star player – they’re 10th in offensive net rating.
Just like Detroit, the Spurs have a pretty stout defense. They’re 3rd in points allowed, 5th in FG% allowed, 26th in 3P% allowed, 4th in rebounds allowed, 14th in steals and 11th in blocks. Once again, this should be one of the tougher defensive matchups the Hawks have faced this year. However, it’s hard to say if that will hold true when considering the likely absences of Wembanyma and Stephon Castle.
Three Reasons Atlanta Can Win This Game
Feb 5, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard De’Aaron Fox (4) shoots past Atlanta Hawks forward Onyeka Okongwu (17) in the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Onyeka Okongwu’s offensive emergence has been a massive positive for the Hawks. Although his defense hasn’t been as great throughout the year, he’s shooting a career-best 40.6% from deep on four attempts a game while averaging a career-high 16.1 points and 2.5 assists to go along with 7.4 rebounds a game. It’s not entirely clear whether Porzingis will suit up for the Hawks, but Atlanta should be fine if Okongwu has to handle a starting workload due to his offensive impact and passable defense.
While it hasn’t made much of a difference in recent games, the duo of Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle has massive ramifications to the Spurs’ defensive success. The two-man combination of Wemby and Castle has an elite net rating of +10 and a defensive rating of 107.5. For some context, that defensive rating would be the second best in the NBA. Castle and Wemby have incredible chemistry on defense and the Hawks are getting a big break by not having to gameplan for them on offense.
One area that the Hawks have consistently excelled in is points from turnovers. They rank second in the NBA for points off turnovers per game, only trailing the Thunder. The Spurs do a good job of this too, as evidenced by being 10th in the same statistic. However, San Antonio has made a big emphasis of taking care of the ball and cutting down on turnovers since Wemby went down. Considering that the Hawks have a clear advantage in this department, it’s possible that they might be able to get out to a big lead if they can frustrate lead ball handler De’Aaron Fox into making mistakes.
Three Reasons Atlanta Might Lose This Game
Feb 5, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels (5) shoots against the San Antonio Spurs in the first quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
| Brett Davis-Imagn Images
One of the biggest discrepancies between the Hawks and the Pistons in Detroit’s win was the difference in points in the paint. Detroit has 66 of their 120 points in the paint while the Hawks only finished with 50 paint points. The rim protection was extremely lacking from the Hawks and Johnson got exposed on cuts behind him on multiple occasions. That has to be better tonight simply because the Spurs are 13th in points in the paint. Detroit was overwhelmingly dominant in the paint as they came into the game with the most paint points per game in the NBA. They cannot let the Spurs dictate terms inside the paint – especially because Atlanta is 17th in opposing points in the paint.
Even without Wembanyama, it wouldn’t be wise to dismiss Luke Kornet. He’s a great screen setter and rim protector who’s averaging a career-best 8.7 points and 6.1 rebounds while shooting 83% at the rim. That’s in the 97th percentile among all centers and his offensive rebounding has also been extremely helpful to give the Spurs second chance points. Perhaps a combination of Mo Gueye and Kristaps Porzingis would be enough to keep Kornet from taking the game over.
While Dyson Daniels has been a much better passer for the Hawks, his hesitancy to shoot the three-ball thus far has held his development back. He’s only shooting 23.1% per game from deep on less than one attempt per game, which is drastically going to constrict Atlanta’s spacing. In the past five games, he hasn’t made an attempt from beyond the arc in the last five games. That needs to change if the Hawks are serious about trying to tread water until Young is healthy.
Injury Report
Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young and N’Faly Dante are both out while Onyeka Okongwu, Kristaps Porzingis and Zaccharie Risacher are all questionable.
San Antonio Spurs: Jordan McLaughlin, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper and Victor Wembanyama are all out.
Projected Starting Lineups
Hawks:
G – Dyson Daniels
G – Nickeil Alexander-Walker
F – Vit Krejci
F – Jalen Johnson
C – Kristaps Porzingis
Spurs:
G – De’Aaron Fox
G – Julian Champagnie
F – Devin Vassell
F – Harrison Barnes
C – Luke Kornet
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