Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for 76ers vs. Bucks, John Collins)
The NBA has a massive slate of NBA Cup games on Friday, which means there are only four games to bet on Thursday, since there won’t be a team playing a cup game on the second night of a back-to-back.
It’s been a solid week in my NBA Best Bets column – buoyed by a strong day on Tuesday with a total bet and a Devin Booker prop highlighting the wins.
Now, I’m looking to find some value in a four-game slate:
Let’s break down my favorite plays for Thursday’s action, including a pick for the 76ers-Bucks clash.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline (-125) vs. Milwaukee Bucks
The 76ers are coming off a loss to the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday, but I think they’re in a great spot to pick up a road win over the Bucks with Giannis Antetokounmpo out of the lineup.
Milwaukee has the No. 1 offensive rating in the NBA when Giannis is on the floor this season and the worst offensive rating in the league when he’s off. That’s a difference of 18.4 points per 100 possessions.
Per @ESPNInsights
Milwaukee on offense
With Giannis: 1st
Without: Last
+18.4 net rating ranks 2nd only to Nikola Jokic https://t.co/h4WOVPXsPk
— Bobby Marks (@BobbyMarks42) November 18, 2025
Yikes.
I am far from sold on this Milwaukee team staying afloat without the two-time MVP, and the Sixers are one of the 10-best offenses in the league this season. While it’ll be important to monitor Philly’s injury report to make sure Tyrese Maxey plays, I think the Sixers were gearing up for this game all along.
Joel Embiid was listed as doubtful on Wednesday and ended up missing another game while the 76ers sat Paul George on the front end of a back-to-back. I think there’s a chance both players return for this game, which would give Philly a massive edge against the short-handed Bucks.
John Collins UNDER 20.5 Points and Rebounds (-122)
Clippers forward John Collins enters Thursday night’s action averaging 11.9 points and 4.8 rebounds per game while shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from beyond the arc.
He’s been thrust into the starting lineup with Kawhi Leonard out, averaging 9.4 points and 4.6 rebounds in 26.6 minutes per game (five games).
This season, Collins has cleared 20.5 points and rebounds just four times in 14 games, and he’s failed to do it in any of his starts. Now, he has to face an Orlando team that ranks in the top 10 in the league in rebounding percentage this season.
I think this line is super mispriced, as Collins is averaging just 16.7 points and rebounds per game for the season and 14.0 as a starter.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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