Griffin Wong previews tonight’s game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Milwaukee Bucks with his favorite player prop bets.
With one really good and hot team as the clear best in the Eastern Conference right now — the 13-2 Detroit Pistons — and three awful teams at the bottom, the middle of the conference is jam-packed, with the second-seeded Toronto Raptors just two games ahead of the 11th-seeded Milwaukee Bucks right now.
That middle morass will be settled a little bit further tonight, when the eighth-seeded 8-6 Philadelphia 76ers will travel to face the Bucks, with the game starting at 8 p.m. ET. Joel Embiid, Adem Bona and Kelly Oubre Jr. remain out for Philadelphia, while Giannis Antetokounmpo (groin) will be out for Milwaukee.
The 76ers are 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-125 on the Moneyline), with the point total set at 223.5. The Bucks are +105 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll lay out my three favorite prop bets for tonight’s contest.
Tyrese Maxey 30+ Points (-105)
Amid an inconsistent season for Philadelphia, Maxey has been there, game in and game out. He leads the league with 40.3 minutes per game and 22.9 field goals attempted, but he’s been pretty efficient despite the heavy workload, making 46.1% of his field goals, 42.3% of his triples, and 88.1% of his free throws and averaging a career-high 31.9 points, 4.7 boards, and 7.8 assists per game. If Paul George plays more than the 21 minutes he recorded in his season debut against the LA Clippers on Monday, he could take some shots away from Maxey, but in that game, Maxey scored 39 points on 13-for-27 shooting.
He should have no problem scoring against a mediocre Milwaukee defense that has had the 10th-worst defensive rating even with Antetokounmpo, a former Defensive Player of the Year, appearing in 13 of the team’s 14 games. To be fair, the Greek Freak has had more of an impact on offense than defense this season — the Bucks’ offense has been 21.8 points per 100 possessions worse with Antetokounmpo off the court, but their defense has been 0.7 points per 100 possessions better — but that’s in part because he’s spent lots of time in offense-forward lineups without either Myles Turner or Ryan Rollins. On a game-to-game level, there’s no chance that Antetokounmpo is actually a negative in Milwaukee’s defense.
Ryan Rollins O30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-116)
Rollins has been one of the league’s breakout players this season, leaping to 17.4 points, 5.3 assists, and 1.7 steals per game on 51-46-77 shooting splits in his first season as a full-time starter. In the first game Antetokounmpo missed, he recorded 25 points, five rebounds, and six assists in a loss to the Charlotte Hornets, and with Antetokounmpo leaving early against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday, Rollins had 24 points, three boards, and five dimes. He’s had 31+ P/R/A in three of his past four games.
The 76ers have a fine defense, but it’s not close to elite. This season, Philadelphia has allowed the 14th-most points, 10th-fewest rebounds, and 14th-fewest assists per game. The 76ers have been particularly gettable in the paint, allowing among the highest percentages in both the restricted area and non-restricted paint, and for a small point guard, Rollins has done a good job getting downhill, attempting 5.7 shots per game in the paint. As a team, the Bucks have actually gotten unlucky on the boards, getting the second-fewest rebound chances, and A.J. Green, Gary Trent Jr., and Kyle Kuzma have all shot less than 40% off of Rollins’ passes, so some shooting luck should benefit his assist numbers as well.
VJ Edgecombe 6+ Rebounds (+112)
The rookie sensation had slowed down somewhat after a 34-point debut, but he roared back onto the scene with an impressive 21-point, six-rebound, four-assist, three-steal, two-block effort against the Toronto Raptors last night, marking his fourth game in his last five with six or more boards and his ninth overall in 14 games. At six-foot-five with a six-foot-eight wingspan and a 38.5-inch vertical leap, Edgecombe has the tools to blossom into one of the league’s best rebounding guards, especially on the offensive end.
Even with Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee has struggled on the boards, allowing the seventh-most rebounds per game and posting the lowest total rebounding percentage. However, the Bucks’ total rebounding percentage goes from 49.3% with him on the court to a pitiful 42.5% without him, which would be by far the worst mark in NBA history. Turner will be the primary man in the middle with Antetokounmpo sidelined, and his 11.8% rebounding percentage is among the lowest of any regular starting center. Plus, assuming Rollins guards Maxey, Edgecombe will be defended by Trent, who’s never averaged more than 2.7 boards per game in his career.
