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The ‘Ugly Underdogs‘ have gone cold at the worst time. Texas Tech was just too good for UCF, racing out to a 24-2 lead at halftime and pouring it on en route to a 48-9 victory. The loss moves our record in the wrong direction to 7-5, and our quest to finish above .500 now hangs in the balance. We’ll keep it local this week with a play on the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers, who have the unenviable task of taking on Ohio State at the Horseshoe on Saturday afternoon.
There’s not much Ohio State can gain from a visit from Rutgers on Saturday afternoon.
Sure, the No. 1 team in the country can’t afford to get upset by the Scarlet Knights, but the Buckeyes are 31.5-point favorites, so that’s not happening.
You could also suggest that quarterback Julian Sayin will have the chance to pad his stats to help him catch Fernando Mendoza in the Heisman race, but that’s not going to be on top of mind for the coaching staff.
What matters Saturday is that Ohio State collects the win, avoids any injuries and stays fresh for what’s to come.
First up is a chance to exact revenge on Michigan, the last team to beat Ohio State, in Week 14.
And then the Buckeyes will set their sights on Indiana (most likely) in the Big Ten Championship, and from there, it’s off to the College Football Playoff, where they’ll try to defend their title.
Ohio State’s regular season is drawing to a conclusion, but the real work has hardly started.
I’ve got nothing but respect for Greg Schiano and the culture he has established at Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights are in Columbus because they have to be Saturday.
This game has the feel of a foregone conclusion. A box that just needs to be ticked before the fun starts.
Rutgers’ Ian Strong celebrates after scoring a touchdown. AP
That’s just as well, because it should mean we won’t see the very best version of Ohio State on Saturday.
Rutgers is one win away from qualifying for a bowl game, but it’s been a trying season in Piscataway.
The Scarlet Knights have been searching for the right formula on defense all season, but it just ain’t happening. Rutgers ranks last in FBS in yards per play allowed and grades out as the 98th-best defensive team in the country, per SP+.
On paper, Ohio State’s offense should have a field day with Rutgers. But, as we outlined above, there are plenty of reasons to believe that the Buckeyes could just put this thing in cruise control.
Not only will Ohio State want to avoid any key injuries, but the Buckeyes will want to keep the script vanilla, to avoid providing Michigan and other upcoming opponents with valuable game tape.
There are a couple of other factors that seem to be inflating this price.
Top of mind is that Ohio State is 8-1-1 against the spread in 2025, and has covered several massive numbers, including last week’s 33.5-point spread against UCLA.
The second is that Rutgers has played one other elite team, Oregon, and got walloped, 56-10.
There is some necessary context for both of those bits of logic. Yes, Ohio State has been a money-printing machine, but this is arguably the most meaningless game they’ll play all season. It does the Buckeyes no good to leave their best players on the field if/when they build up an insurmountable lead.
Betting on College Football?
As for Rutgers’ loss to Oregon, that result came on the heels of the Ducks’ lone loss in 2025, providing Dan Lanning’s team with a plum get-right spot in Piscataway. They certainly got it right.
And it’s not just the intangibles that make Rutgers an appealing bet as a five-score underdog. The Scarlet Knights should have more than enough offensively to get to a total that makes it incredibly difficult for Ohio State to cover this spread, especially since the defending champs will want the clock to be moving all afternoon.
The Play: Rutgers +31.5 (-105, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
