Wales v All Blacks prediction: Scott Robertson’s troops to ‘bounce back’ and restore some lost pride
The All Blacks’ 2025 Autumn Nations Series campaign will reach its conclusion when they face off against Wales at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff on Saturday.
If truth be told, head coach Scott Robertson and his troops are stuck between a rock and a hard place as they head into this game. This, after the men in black’s much vaunted Grand Slam hopes imploded courtesy of the 33-19 defeat they suffered against England at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham last weekend.
New Zealand started their Grand Slam campaign on a positive note when they clinched a 26-13 triumph over Ireland in Chicago before they had to dig deep before clinching a 25-17 win over Scotland at Murrayfield a week later.
A big talking point and criticism of the All Blacks in recent weeks is their tendency to make a fast start during the first half before fading away as the match progresses.
It first happened against Scotland, where they raced into a 17-0 lead before the Scots fought back to draw level at 17-17, although Robertson‘s side managed to regain the initiative and close out the game in the end.
It was a similar story against the Red Rose where they held a 12-0 advantage midway through the opening half but England soon took control of proceedings before dominating the rest of the match and eventually claimed a deserved victory.
Robertson has made several alterations to his matchday squad, with 13 changes in his starting line-up, and his charges will be keen to continue the habit of making a fantastic start but, unlike those two previous Tests, they will want to kick on and hold the upper hand for the entire match.
Meanwhile, Wales had to dig deep before claiming a 24-23 victory over Japan at the Principality Stadium last weekend.
They sealed that win courtesy of a last-gasp penalty from Jarrod Evans but despite that narrow margin, it was a momentous result for them as it was their first victory under the guidance of their new head coach Steve Tandy.
That followed a forgetful start to Tandy’s reign as they suffered a record 52-28 defeat to Argentina in Cardiff the previous week.
Although there will be some positivity in Wales’ ranks ahead of Saturday’s clash, a victory for the hosts would be a shock as they last beat the All Blacks in 1953.
These sides have faced each other in 37 Tests since 1905 with the All Blacks victorious on 34 occasions and Wales winning the other three.
The home side suffered a setback after Aaron Wainwright was a late withdrawal due to a hip injury. His spot in the run-on side has been taken by Taine Plumtree, who will now start at number eight, with the uncapped Morgan Morse drafted on to the bench.
Where the game will be won
This should be an entertaining spectacle and while both Wales and New Zealand possess attacking threats who can change the course of a match in an instant, that can only happen if they play in the right areas of the field. For that to happen, both sides’ tactical kicking will have to be of a high standard. Although the All Blacks probably have an edge in that department with Damian McKenzie being a more experienced fly-half than Wales’ Dan Edwards, the home side should not be underestimated and if Edwards kicks accurately out of hand, and the decision making from him and his half-back partner Tomos Williams is accurate, then they should be competitive against their more fancied visitors.
Meanwhile, the forward battle will also be crucial, especially the scrums and lineouts which will provide most of the possession, but what the respective teams do with the ball once they have it will also be vital in the grander scheme of things. Meanwhile, discipline will also be important and whoever concedes the least penalties should also end up on the winning side.
Last time they met
What they said
Although Wales head into this encounter as massive underdogs, Tandy said his side will not be intimidated by the prospect of taking on the All Blacks.
“I wouldn’t say there’s intimidation, there’s massive respect and understanding what they are going to bring and what we are going to bring,” he said.
“There’s always that aura around the All Blacks but ultimately our boys when you look at them they’ve got their own mindset around how they go attack the game.
“I think now with the game there’s massive European Cup games, there’s huge games across the board.
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“There’s a sense of excitement to go and test yourself against the best in the world.”
Meanwhile, Robertson revealed that his side will not be taking Wales lightly despite him ringing the changes to his run-on side.
“We have a lot to play for this weekend,” he said.
“We want to put on a performance that reflects the effort and pride we have put in.
“We do not underestimate the passion and resolve that Wales will bring and we know how organised, accurate and ruthless we need to be in return.”
Players to watch
With Wainwright forced to withdraw from Wales’ matchday squad, due to his hip injury, all eyes will be on new number eight Taine Plumtree. It will be a momentous occasion for the lanky loose forward as he is a former New Zealand U20s representative and this will be his first match against the All Blacks. Plumtree spent most of his formative years in New Zealand but qualifies for Wales as he was born there in 2000 while his father, current Sharks boss an ex-All Blacks assistant coach John Plumtree, was coaching Swansea. The younger Plumtree will be determined to get one over the men in black on Saturday.
It’s a similar story for New Zealand-born full-back Blair Murray, who has caught the eye with some outstanding performances for Wales. The 24-year-old represented Canterbury in the land of his birth before joining the Scarlets and he qualifies for his adopted country through his mother, who is from Tonyrefail. Murray is an excitement machine, who can wreak havoc on attack and will be expected to put his side on the front foot from the back.
Another player who will be crucial to the Wales cause is their experienced captain Dewi Lake, who will be expected to give his side valuable momentum as a ball carrier in the forward exchanges. Apart from his prowess with ball in hand, Lake is solid on defence and an excellent breakdown operator while his outstanding leadership skills will also be crucial to the hosts.
For the All Blacks, a lot will depend on the performance of star playmaker Damian McKenzie, who comes into the run-on side after an underwhelming display against England from Beauden Barrett. With 73 Test caps under his belt, McKenzie is an experienced campaigner who will have to hit the ground running in Cardiff. He will be expected to give his side direction with his superb playmaking skills and game management while his goal-kicking will also have to be at its best.
Meanwhile, also keep an eye on exciting utility back Ruben Love, who will get his first opportunity on the All Blacks’ end-of-year tour when he takes to the field at full-back in this match. Love reads the game well, kicks excellently off both feet and has a keen eye for a gap which makes him dangerous with ball in hand. He is also capable of playing at fly-half so don’t be surprised if he slots into that channel when the All Blacks launch attacks, especially in Wales’ half of the field.
Amongst the All Blacks forwards a player who will be eager to make a big impact is 2024’s World Rugby Breakthrough Player of the Year Wallace Sititi, who returns to the run-on side at number eight after playing off the bench against England. Sititi has been struggling with injuries for large parts of the season but when he builds up a head of steam on attack, he can unlock the tightest defences which means he is a player which Wales should monitor closely.
Prediction
After suffering that disappointing defeat against England last week, the All Blacks will be determined to finish their Autumn Nations Series campaign on a high so don’t be surprised if there is a backlash against Wales. Although the home side will give a good account of themselves during the early stages, the All Blacks will bounce back after last week’s loss and eventually cruise to victory. All Blacks to win by 25 points.
Previous results
2022: New Zealand won 55-23 in Cardiff
2021: New Zealand won 54-16 in Cardiff
2019: New Zealand won 40-17 in Tokyo (RWC bronze medal match)
2017: New Zealand won 33-18 in Cardiff
2016: New Zealand won 46-6 in Dunedin
2016: New Zealand won 36-22 in Wellington
2016: New Zealand won 39-21 in Auckland
2014: New Zealand won 34-16 in Cadiff
The teams
Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Tom Rogers, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Harri Deaves, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 2 Dewi Lake (c), 1 Rhys Carre
Replacements: 16 Brodie Coghlan, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Archie Griffin, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Morgan Morse, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Nick Tompkins
New Zealand: 15 Ruben Love, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Pasilio Tosi, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Tamaiti Williams
Replacements: 16 George Bell, 17 Fletcher Newell, 18 George Bower, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Christian Lio-Willie, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 23 Sevu Reece
Date: Saturday, November 22
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 15:10 GMT (04:10 NZDT Sunday, November 23)
Referee: Hollie Davidson (SRU)
Assistant referees: Andrea Piardi (FIR), Gianluca Gnecchi (FIR)
TMO: Ian Tempest (RFU)
FPRO: Matteo Liperini (FIR)
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