In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Belal Muhammad and Ian Machado Garry meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 265 at Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena in Al Rayyan, Qatar. The prelims begin at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card at 1 p.m. ET, also ESPN+. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 265: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.
Records: Muhammad (24-4-0) | Machado Garry (16-1-0)
Muhammad lost the welterweight belt by a unanimous-decision to Jack Della Maddalena last time out at UFC 315 (May 10) in the main event in his first title defense. He had won the belt almost a year earlier behind a unanimous-decision win over Leon Edwards at UFC 304 July 27, 2024. Muhammad has done the distance 6 times in his past 7 fights, and 14 times in the past 17 bouts dating back to Feb. 11, 2017.
Machado Garry’s last fight was April 26 when he posted a unanimous-decision victory over Carlos Prates in a fight night main event, bouncing back from a unanimous-decision loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310 in December 2024. The Irish welterweight has gone the distance 5 fights in a row since a Round 1 KO/TKO win against Daniel Rodriguez May 2023. Since an opening-round KO/TKO in November 2021 — his UFC debut — has gone the distance in 7 of the past 9 outings.
The 28-year-old Garry has a 2.5-inch reach advantage over Muhammad, and a slight 4.77-to-4.46 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Garry is much more accurate on those strikes, too, going with a 58.59% mark, to 51.04% for Muhammad. The Palestinian-American fighter Muhammad, who fights for Valle Flow Striking, has a 2.24 takedown average to just 1.02 for Garry.
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UFC Fight Night 265: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:47 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Muhammad +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Machado Garry -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -275 | No +195)
UFC Fight Night 265: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry picks and predictions
Machado Garry (-275) will cost nearly 3 times the potential return, and that’s just a little too expensive with too much risk for not enough reward.
As mentioned, Muhammad has gone the distance 6 times in the past 7 fights, and Garry has gone the distance in 5 straight outings. As such, in method of victory, roll with MACHADO GARRY BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (-125) for a much more sensible price.
AVOID.
Yes (-275) on “fight to go the distance” is quite expensive. With both of these fighters going the distance frequently, the total rounds prop isn’t even offered. You can’t risk this much on the fight going the distance, even if you were to toss it into multi-leg parlays.
If you want to bet the fight going the distance, you’ll need to declare a winner, too, such as Machado Garry by decision/technical decision (above) or Muhammad by decision/technical decision (+300), if you like the underdog.
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