Nebraska’s trip to Penn State was considered almost a guaranteed loss at the start of this season.
Then, the losses began to accumulate for the Nittany Lions. Drew Allar suffered an injury. James Franklin was fired, and Matt Rhule emerged as the top candidate for the Penn State position. Nebraska’s future looked more certain after Rhule’s extension, but then Dylan Raiola also sustained a season-ending injury. Although the stakes of the game aren’t as high as they might have been, it remains a significant matchup between two legendary programs.
Both Nebraska and Penn State started the season with highly touted five-star quarterbacks. They now enter this game with well-rated but inexperienced four-star quarterbacks. TJ Lateef was limited in relief of Dylan Raiola against USC but excelled in his first start at home against UCLA. Emmett Johnson and the wide receivers provided ample support in his debut. Lateef leads all quarterbacks in average yards after catch with 9.21 (Georgia Tech’s Haynes King is second at 5.82).
Running total EPA for TJ Lateef, and Ethan Grunkemeyer in 2025. / Arbitrary Analytics
Ethan Grunkemeyer has been inconsistent in his four games as a starter. He’s been a streaky player, with his EPA fluctuating throughout his games. Over four games, his box score stats have improved each week. Last week against Michigan State was his first start, during which he didn’t throw any interceptions. Grunkemeyer is a short pass thrower, with an average depth of target (ADOT) of just 5.9 yards. Lateef is the only Big Ten quarterback with a shorter ADOT at 4.86 yards.
If you enjoy running with the ball, this game is perfect for you. Emmett Johnson leads the Big Ten in rushing. He’s also a problem in the receiving game. He’s second in the Big Ten among running backs in receiving yards in 2025 (behind Maryland’s DeJuan Williams). Emmett Johnson finally has some help on the ground with a mobile quarterback, TJ Lateef. The Nittany Lions have a below-average run defense, so the Huskers will need another strong performance from Emmett Johnson.
When it comes to a backfield duo, there might not be a better combination in the country than the one in Happy Valley. Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton are two of the six active 3,000-yard career rushers. Allen is third in the Big Ten in rushing yards and fifth in yards from scrimmage. Although they’ve had a disappointing season in terms of yardage, with only 1,300 yards rushing between both backs, they’ve already surpassed last season’s rushing touchdown total.
Comparing offense and defensive advanced metrics between the two teams. / Arbitrary Analytics
Penn State is a stronger football team than its record shows. The Singleton-Allen backfield duo is the top in the country. The Nittany Lions still have a bowl game to qualify for if they win their last two games. Even in metrics where Nebraska has been among the best nationally, like average starting field position, Penn State is just behind the Huskers. Controlling the field position has been a key to the Huskers’ success this season, and this might be a game where they struggle to do so.
For the Huskers, I don’t think this will be a happy trip to Happy Valley. The matchup is fairly balanced between these two programs. Penn State has the weapons to exploit Nebraska’s biggest weakness – its run defense. If the Blackshirts find a way to contain the Singleton-Allen duo to under 200 yards rushing, they have a chance. I expect a close game, but Penn State to come out on top.
Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, subscribing to HuskerMax on YouTube, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.
