College football Week 13 bowl projections: FBS newcomers (and UNC) still have postseason paths – The Athletic
Two more weeks remain until the regular season concludes, and North Carolina needs two more victories under first-year coach Bill Belichick to officially earn a bowl bid. But there is another way for the Tar Heels to qualify for the postseason with only one more victory.
North Carolina (4-6) faces in-state rivals Duke and NC State to finish the season and will likely be underdogs at kickoff against both of their Triangle neighbors. But if not enough teams get to six wins, then the bowl system dips into the next two auxiliary pools: programs transitioning from the Football Championship Subdivision and the 5-7 squads with the highest academic progress rate (APR). That’s where North Carolina comes in.
Only two Football Bowl Subdivision teams have a better APR than the Tar Heels, and both (Ohio State and Alabama) already have qualified for the postseason. So, should North Carolina finish 5-7 and a spot opens beyond the transitional teams, Belichick will coach in a bowl game. That said, it’s more likely that the Tar Heels are swept by their in-state rivals.
Missouri State (7-3) is in its first season as an FBS member and is first in line; fellow Conference USA newcomer Delaware (5-5) could join the Bears with another win. Then come the APR teams. After North Carolina, the next-best APR for a likely 5-7 team belongs to Auburn, which can get its fifth win when it plays Mercer this week. But barring some significant upsets down the stretch, Missouri State will pick up a bowl bid.
A few evergreen notes:
This is the second season of the 12-team College Football Playoff. The five highest-ranked conference champions plus the top seven at-large teams qualify.
The four highest-ranked teams earn first-round byes. Those teams will play in the Cotton (Dec. 31), Orange (Jan. 1), Rose (Jan. 1) and Sugar (Dec. 31) bowls on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. Teams seeded 5-8 will host seeds 9-12 on Dec. 19-20. Should the Big Ten and SEC champions earn byes, they will play in the Rose and Sugar bowls, respectively.
The former Pac-12 schools still are under the conference’s old agreements. It’s possible to see matchups between current conference-mates in the Alamo, Vegas, Holiday or Sun bowls.
ESPN Events owns the Bahamas Bowl, and it will continue at a different location, which should be revealed in the next week or two.
BowlMatchup
Playoff
Dec. 19, 2025
7 Ole Miss
10 Alabama
Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025
5 Texas Tech
12 North Texas
Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025
6 Oregon
11 Virginia
Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025
8 Notre Dame
9 Oklahoma
Cotton
Dec. 31, 2025
2 Indiana
Ole Miss/Bama winner
Orange
Jan. 1, 2026
4 Texas A&M
TxTech/UNT winner
Rose
Jan. 1, 2026
1 Ohio State
ND/OU winner
Sugar
Jan. 1, 2026
3 Georgia
Oregon/UVA winner
Fiesta
Jan. 8, 2026
QF winner
QF winner
Peach
Jan. 9, 2026
QF winner
QF winner
Championship
Jan. 19, 2026
SF winner
SF winner
BowlMatchup
LA
Dec. 13, 2025
Pac-12 6 Arizona
MWC 1 San Diego State
Salute to Veterans
Dec. 16, 2025
Sun Belt Arkansas State
MAC Central Michigan
Cure
Dec. 17, 2025
Sun Belt James Madison
G5/Open UConn
68 Ventures
Dec. 17, 2025
Sun Belt Troy
Open Kennesaw State
Myrtle Beach
Dec. 19, 2025
Sun Belt Old Dominion
Open Miami (Ohio)
Gasparilla
Dec. 19, 2025
SEC/ACC/AAC Florida State
Open USF
Famous Idaho Potato
Dec. 22, 2025
MWC UNLV
MAC Buffalo
Boca Raton
Dec. 23, 2025
Open Coastal Carolina
Open Jacksonville State
New Orleans
Dec. 23, 2025
Sun Belt Southern Miss
CUSA Western Kentucky
Frisco
Dec. 23, 2025
G5 Marshall
G5/Open Missouri State
Hawai’i
Dec. 24, 2025
MWC Hawaii
American East Carolina
GameAbove Sports
Dec. 26, 2025
Big Ten 8 Minnesota
MAC Western Michigan
Rate
Dec. 26, 2025
Big Ten 7 Northwestern
Big 12 6 Kansas State
First Responder
Dec. 26, 2025
Open California
Open Fresno State
Military
Dec. 27, 2025
American Navy
ACC 8 Louisville
Pinstripe
Dec. 27, 2025
Big Ten 6 Penn State
ACC 5-7 Pittsburgh
Fenway
Dec. 27, 2025
ACC 9 NC State
American Army
Arizona
Dec. 27, 2025
MWC Boise State
MAC 2 Ohio
Pop-Tarts
Dec. 27, 2025
Big 12 3 BYU
ACC 2-4 Georgia Tech
New Mexico
Dec. 27, 2025
MWC New Mexico
Open Washington State
Gator
Dec. 27, 2025
ACC 2-4 Miami
SEC 3-8 Vanderbilt
Texas
Dec. 27, 2025
Big 12 4 Iowa State
SEC 3-8 Missouri
Birmingham
Dec. 29, 2025
ACC/SEC/Open Duke
SEC/ACC/Open Memphis
Independence
Dec. 30, 2025
Big 12 7 Baylor
CUSA/Sun Belt Louisiana Tech
Music City
Dec. 30, 2025
Big Ten 5 Illinois
SEC 3-8 LSU
Alamo
Dec. 30, 2025
Big 12 2 Houston
Pac-12 2 USC
ReliaQuest
Dec. 31, 2025
Big Ten 3 Iowa
SEC 3-8 Texas
Sun
Dec. 31, 2025
ACC 5-7 Clemson
Pac-12 5 Arizona State
Citrus
Dec. 31, 2025
Big Ten 2 Michigan
SEC 2 Tennessee
Las Vegas
Dec. 31, 2025
Pac-12 3 Utah
Big Ten 4 Nebraska
Armed Forces
Jan. 2, 2026
Open TCU
American UTSA
Liberty
Jan. 2, 2026
Big 12 5 Cincinnati
SEC 3-8 Tulane
Duke’s Mayo
Jan. 2, 2026
SEC 3-8 Kentucky
ACC 5-7 Wake Forest
Holiday
Jan. 2, 2026
ACC 2-4 SMU
Pac-12 4 Washington
Bahamas/TBD
undefined NaN, NaN
MAC Toledo
CUSA Florida International
