Like many of the games on the Week 12 slate this one will play a pivotal part in the playoff picture, writes ANDY RICHMOND.
Having started the season 5-1-1 and finding themselves at the top in the NFC, the Packers have dropped two of three and suddenly find themselves on the fringes of the playoff picture.
For the Vikings, their position in terms of them qualifying for the post season looks even more tenuous or it will be if they lose this game to their divisional rivals. A loss by the Vikings doesn’t mathematically eliminate them from postseason contention, but it would drop their chances to “slim to none.” With seven games to go, the Vikings already have twice as many losses as they did during the 2024 regular season and come into this having lost to the Bears last week 19-17, the one saving grace may be that they are 3-2 on the road and have won at Lambeau Field for the past two years.
The Vikings are seeking their first three-game road winning streak in the series since 1991-93 and their first three-game winning streak overall against the Packers since 2008-09. Last season was the first time in the 64-year history of the rivalry that consecutive games were decided by two points or fewer.
Minnesota have won 38 games since hiring coach Kevin O’Connell prior to the 2022 season. Of those victories, 33 have come when the Vikings were ahead or even in the turnover battle. This season, turnovers have been a key metric in their disappointing start alongside some poor offensive play particularly at the quarterback position, when J.J. McCarthy is under centre. Minnesota has a -9 turnover differential compared to their opponent, 31st in the league but it’s their offence that has been causing most angst amongst their fans and there is no getting away from the fact that McCarthy has been floundering despite having an excellent supporting cast on offence.
McCarthy has thrown for fewer than 160 yards in four of his five starts and he now faces a Packers defence that has allowed 20 points or fewer in seven of ten games. The Vikings have converted 31.4% of their third downs, 31st in the league and ahead of only Tennessee (29.8%). The play on 3rd down from McCarthy has really put the Vikings in a bind this season and they average a league-low 3.7 yards per play on third downs. McCarthy’s passer rating of 25.4 would be the lowest over a full season since 2000 (lowest is Kordell Stewart at 30.4 in 2003). McCarthy has faced three teams not off a bye or in Week 1 so far as a starter – the Vikings are 0-3 SU/ATS in those games with Minnesota scoring fewer than 20 pts in all three games.
However, it’s not been all sweetness and light for the Packers of late either, they suffered a shock defeat to the Panthers and then found the Eagles too tough a test in a dour game that saw them lose back-to-back home games. They did manage to beat the Giants last week but that was far from a fluid performance on offence and they suffered another key injury with main RB Josh Jacobs leaving the game and it looks questionable if he will start this week with the Packers on a short week and due to play on Thursday as one of three Thanksgiving Day games. Packers are 3-7 ATS this season through ten games, only the Commanders have a worse ATS mark this year at 3-8 ATS. For Green Bay, they haven’t started 3-7 ATS through ten games prior to this season since 2000.
Entering Week 12, the Packers have the toughest remaining Strength Of Schedule of any team, with their opponents having a 59.2% win pct. Their easiest remaining games are this week vs. Vikings and the Ravens, and they are improving fast. So this game is something of a pivotal one for the Packers and HC Matt LaFleur, he and his opposite number Kevin O’Connell have met six times as head coaches, this is the first time Green Bay has entered with a better record than Minnesota.
We have already touched on the trials and tribulations of J.J. McCarthy and he faces a tough task here as it’s the Green Bay defence that has kept them in plenty of games this season. It’s true that McCarthy had a stellar final drive of the game to put Minnesota ahead, last Sunday against Chicago going 6 of 8 for 76 yards and the go-ahead score (at the time) on a 15-yard strike to Jordan Addison, but it would be hard to ignore the period before that drive which was lack lustre to say the least.
Before that drive, McCarthy was 10 of 24 for 74 yards with 2 interceptions. No matter how you want to divide things, McCarthy has now completed 52.9% of his passes, the lowest rate for any passer who qualifies for the league’s passer rating. Of course, he’s still a young quarterback and he may yet turn things around but he’s outdoors here on the road in a hostile atmosphere against a defence that are allowing a league-low 5.9 yards per pass attempt.
⭐️ STARSPORTS.BET MATCH MARKETS ⭐️
The play and performances of McCarthy may well see the Viking revert to relying on a ground game which will effectively built around ex-Packers favourite Aaron Jones who looks to have virtually phased out Jordan Mason from the offence. Jones turned 19 touches into 81 yards on Sunday and he handled 76% of the backfield touches after 70% in Week 10. Mason did come in and have 45 yards and a touchdown on his 6 touches, but Jones has out touched him 31 to 11 the past two weeks and was out touching him 9 to 3 in the first half of Week 9 before a shoulder injury. It has to be noted though that if the Vikings do go down this route on offence Green Bay have allowed 3.8 yards per carry to running backs (7th), but they have allowed some good games to backs in recent weeks that have also been attached to limited offenses. Tyrone Tracy just had 139 total yards against them on Sunday, with Devin Singletary adding 47 yards and 2 touchdowns. Saquon Barkley had 101 total yards in Week 10 in Green Bay and the week before that, Rico Dowdle racked up 141 yards and 2 touchdowns. Siding with Jones would very much be a bet on talent although he could also be used in the passing game as the Packers have permitted the NFL’s eighth-most receptions (51) to running backs, while high-percentage throws to Jones would be a way to build McCarthy’s confidence.
If McCarthy can gain some confidence then he has plenty of receiving outlets to work with but the structure of the offence often looks flat and rather unimaginative and some creativity needs to be injected to beat a Packers defence which has on the whole been a solid unit in this year. Main WR Jusin Jefferson looked justifiably frustrated last week at the lack of opportunities, and one of the best wideouts in the league is going to waste due to abysmal quarterbacking, and Jefferson’s on-field body language worsens each week. Jefferson’s receiving lines in McCarthy’s five starts are 4/44/1, 3/81/0, 6/47/1, 4/37/0, and 5/61/0, and those numbers are nowhere near the figures they should be.
Jordan Addison is meant to be the Vikings deep threat but in three games with McCarthy Addison has caught 7 of 22 targets for 102 yards and on passes of 10+ Air Yards last week, McCarthy went 4-of-14 for 76 yards and an interception. Jalen Nailor and TE T.J. Hockenson round out the receiving options for the Vikings but it’s an offence that has for the most part been strangled by some very average quarterback play.
The Packers offence this season has been something of an enigma, Green Bay have lost three games this season. They averaged only 10 points per game in those three losses while ceding an average of 13 points in those games. That doesn’t look too terrible on the surface until you realize two of those losses came at the hands of the Browns and Panthers. In their defence Injuries to key players have made it more difficult to completely control game environments and losing TE Tucker Kraft who really made the offence hum a couple of weeks ago was a bitter blow. However, rather like the Vikings offence the Packers offence has looked rather flat at times this season and lacked any zip or creativity and the play calling via HC LaFleur has left a bit to be desired at times.
QB Jordan Love hasn’t quite had the season that many (me included) though he would but he’s suffered injuries of his own as well as seeing various parts of the Green Bay offence blighted by injuries and apart from the first few weeks of the season it’s been a case of make do and mend on the Packers offence. Pressure is one of the elements that always gets brought up when we talk about Love’s game.
Without pressure, Love leads the NFL in completion rate (82.2%) and ranks second in yards per pass attempt (9.3) with 15 touchdowns and 1 interception. Under pressure, he is last in completion rate (38.2%) with 4.7 Y/A (32nd), 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Minnesota leads the league in pressure rate (44.2%) and DC Brian Flores is certain to be sending some exotic looks and blitzes Love’s way and that will be one of the keys to the game, how Love negotiates the pressure he is bound to face.
The injury to Josh Jacobs is one of the key aspects of this slate to track throughout the week, largely because Emanuel Wilson saw 100% of the backfield opportunities after Jacobs departure in Week 11. The line is trending for Jacobs to miss this game and Wilson to be the main RB and the Packers have struggled to run the ball efficiently without Jacobs so there is some uncertainty there.
Those uncertainties and negatives on offence don’t stop there for Green Bay as each of their top three wide receivers have appeared on the injury report this week.
It does looks as though they will all play though which means that we will see Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs as the main WRs and Matthew Golden and Dontayvion Wicks sharing a situational role. Watson is leading Packers pass catchers in playing time and routes run, and last week made multiple contested catches, which are not typically part of his game. He’s already Green Bay’s top deep threat and will be the main target if Minnesota continue to blitz as much as usual leaving themselves vulnerable on the back end.
Any game involving this form of the Vikings is going to carry a wide range of outcomes, but it is likely up to them to dislodge the Packers from their likeliest game plan and more conservative play calling tendencies. Both teams are effectively in must-win mode after the up-and-down start by the Vikings and the recent skid by the Packers and that could be the element that we need to add some fuel to the fire to spark this game into life, with the Packers the more likely to find something to hold onto going forward if they can continually challenge the Vikings to march the field with this being another tough test and examination for J.J. McCarthy.
RECOMMENDED BETS
BACK Christian Watson OVER +49.5 receiving yards 1pt at 10/11 (⭐️
CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Aaron Jones OVER +52.5 rushing yards 1pt at 10/11 (⭐️
CLICK TO BET NOW)
PROFIT/LOSS (NOV 2025): -10.79 points
STAR PROMOTIONS
