Mark Stinchcombe steps in for Jake Osgathorpe to provide this weekend’s Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions.
Football betting tips: Premier League
Monday 20:00 – Man Utd vs Everton
1pt Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to be shown a card at 4/1 (Betway)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair
Manchester Utd vs Everton
Where are Manchester United at? They’re seventh in the table which just so happens to be where they rank in-terms of their squad value according to TransferMarkt which seems apt. This despite having spent the third most money since Sir Alex Ferguson retired in 2013.
Entertainment has been on the cards of late with eight of their last nine league games seeing over 2.5 goals. They’ve scored at least twice in their last five games but at the other end have shipped at least two goals in their last three games, therefore they can’t be trusted at odds-on-quotes of 4/5 despite Everton having only won two of their last eight.
What I can’t resist a bet is KIERNAN DEWSBURY-HALL TO BE SHOWN A CARD. Along with Lucas Paqueta and Sasa Lukic (both suspended), he leads the division with five cards in just 10 games yet we can get 4/1 on another booking. He loves to get stuck in, averaging 3.0 tackles and fouls per-game.
Score prediction: Manchester Utd 2-1 Everton
Premier League tips
Saturday 12:30 – Burnley vs Chelsea
1pt Moises Caicedo anytime goalscorer at 15/2 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 – Bournemouth vs West Ham
1pt Over 2.5 goals at 7/10 (William Hill)
Saturday 15:00 – Brighton vs Brentford
0.5pts Both teams to score over 1.5 goals at 15/4 (General)
Saturday 15:00 – Fulham vs Sunderland
1pt Harry Wilson anytime goalscorer at 7/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Sky Bet)
Saturday 15:00 – Liverpool vs Forest
0.5pt Ryan Gravenberch anytime goalscorer at 14/1 (Sporting Index, SpreadEx)
Saturday 15:00 – Wolves vs Palace
1.5pts Palace to win at evens (General)
Saturday 17:30 – Newcastle vs Man City
1pt Bruno Guimaraes anytime goalscorer at 9/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Guimaraes anytime goalscorer & shown a card at 25/1 (bet365)
Sunday 14:00 – Leeds vs Villa
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals at 11/10 (General)
Sunday 16:30 – Arsenal vs Tottenham
1pt Martin Zubimendi to be shown a card at 4/1 (bet365)
Burnley vs Chelsea
Are you really a proper punter if you’re not punting up a 15/2 ANYTIME GOALSCORER bet against the Premier League’s statistically worst defence as your opening bet in your debut column?
With Burnley averaging the lowest possession in the division with just 38.6%, they’re defensively vulnerable. They’re facing the most shots per-game at 17.5 and as a result they’ve conceded the most expected goals in 24.0.
Four players top Chelsea’s goalscoring charts across all competitions this season with four goals – Joao Pedro (2/1), Estevao (5/2), Enzo Fernandez (7/2) and MOISES CAICEDO (15/2).
Given the disparity in prices, it’s clear to see the values lies with the Ecuadorian. He’s scored four goals in just 14 starts already this season and finished last season with a goal in the Conference League final.
Score prediction: Burnley 0-2 Chelsea
Bournemouth vs West Ham
Has new West Ham boss Nuno Espirito Santo finally got a tune out of the Hammers? Six games into his tenure and it’s back-to-back wins with victories against Newcastle and Burnley, scoring three goals in each. However, they’ve not been watertight at the other end, shipping 10 goals in his reign.
Bournemouth on the other hand, have suffered back-to-back defeats although there is no disgrace in losing to in-form Aston Villa 4-0 and title challengers Manchester City 3-1. Before those defeats the Cherries sat second but have now dropped to ninth to show just how competitive the top half of the league is.
With both teams seeing goals at both ends of the pitch OVER 2.5 GOALS is the obvious bet. 15 of Bournemouth’s last 25 matches with Premier League opposition have seen 3+ goals winners.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 3-1 West Ham
Brighton vs Brentford
Keith Andrews looks to have Brentford clicking again with four wins in their last six games to take them up to 12th. They’ve been great fun at both ends of the pitch, scoring 17 goals but also conceding 17, meaning their matches are averaging 3.09 per game, with seven of their 11 games seeing over 2.5 goals.
Brighton are continuing to reward overs backers with 20 of their last 26 seeing winners (77%). They’ve also scored 17 but defence has been a longer term issue under Fabian Hürzeler with only three clean sheets in their last 23 games.
Over 2.5 goals is 8/11 but I want to chance my arm at a bigger price with two goal heavy teams involved and take the 15/4 about BOTH TEAMS OVER 1.5 GOALS. Over 3.5 is only 7/4 in comparison but we can get two units bigger by evenly splitting a potential four-goals-plus clash.
Brentford won 4-2 when these two last met in April.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-2 Brentford
Fulham vs Sunderland
There’s only one man I want to back here and that’s Wales’ hat-trick hero HARRY WILSON fresh off his three-goal haul in the 7-1 demolition of North Macedonia.
This is not really a ‘data lead’ selection but he must be on top of the world right now and at 7/2 looks a bet when Fulham are only 23/20 to win. The barometer I like to use to measure a GOALSCORER bet is the odds for his side to score multiple goals. Fulham are just 11/8 to score 2+ and I’d much rather be on attacking midfielder Wilson at 7/2.
He’s got eight goals in 20 starts since the beginning of last season and loves a pop at Craven Cottage. He’s averaging 2.4 shots per-game at home, compared to 1.4 away.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-1 Sunderland
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
One shining light of Liverpool’s inconsistent season has been the new found goal output of central midfielder RYAN GRAVENBERCH. No goals in 37 Premier League appearances last season, he now finds himself with three goals in just nine games in 25/26.
It’s no surprise when you consider he’s averaging over double the amount of shots from last season, increasing from 0.5 per-game to 1.3 per-game making his 13/2 ANYTIME GOALSCORER price enticing – you can actually get him as big as 14/1 with some firms – given Liverpool are just 2/5.
The Reds are just 7/2 to score over 3.5 goals so to get around twice the price for Gravenberch looks very exciting. Only Mohamed Salah (13/10) has more Premier League goals than the Dutchman for Liverpool this season. Sean Dyche’s Nottingham Forest have conceded five goals in his first three league games.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Nottingham Forest
Wolves vs Crystal Palace
Looking at some of the odds Wolves opponents have been this season makes for interesting reading. Manchester City were 8/15 in a 4-0 away win, Newcastle were 4/11 in a 1-0 home win, Tottenham were 8/15 in a 1-1 home draw and Chelsea were 4/11 in a 3-0 home win last time out.
CRYSTAL PALACE are ranked third on expected points (xP) – a one place below City and above both Chelsea and Tottenham yet they are evens TO WIN at Molineux.
Yes Wolves have a new manager in Rob Edwards but there is often a fallacy that a new coach yields better results. Generally better results come as a result of the new manager being on the receiving end of positive variance with the previous boss having suffered bad luck and thus bad results.
Bottom side Wolves probably deserve more than their two points but xP still only ranks them as the second-worst side and when you don’t properly replace a player of the quality of Matheus Cunha, no new manager can squeeze wins out of that squad.
Score prediction: Wolves 0-2 Crystal Palace
Newcastle vs Manchester City
Saturday night, under the lights, St James’ Park; the atmosphere will be absolutely ferocious.
One man who will definitely be up for it is Newcastle captain BRUNO GUIMARAES. He’s scored in seven of his last 17 league matches at home and it’s no surprise when he averages 1.6 shots-per-game at home versus 1.2 shots-per-game away. He’s scored against the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United and Bournemouth to show his capability against top sides.
Let’s also back him TO BE SHOWN A CARD as well. He has an incredible record of seven bookings in seven games against City and is always a prime candidate for a card considering he commits the fourth most fouls per-game in the league at 2.1.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Manchester City
Leeds vs Aston Villa
In-form Aston Villa travel to Elland Road to take on Leeds in the Sunday early afternoon kick-off.
After a slow start to the season where the Villains failed to win any of their first five games, they’ve now won five of their last six matches. Leeds on the other hand have suffered four defeats in five, although three of those were on the road. Their issue has been in defence having conceded at least twice in five of their last six matches. As a result, six of their last seven games have seen OVER 2.5 GOALS.
The Premier League is averaging 2.74 goals per-game this season but we’re only 11 rounds into it. 24/25 saw an average of 2.93 goals per-game which equates to over 2.5 goals odds of 8/11. We’re getting 11/10 here and it’s clear this game has a better chance of goals than an average top-flight game.
Score prediction: Leeds 1-2 Aston Villa
Arsenal vs Tottenham
The north London derby tends to be a feisty affair and bookmakers are expecting similar here with around five cards projected. This is backed up by the previous meetings with 57 cards produced in 11 Premier League games since Mikel Arteta was appointed Arsenal manager in 2019 (5.18 per-game).
As a result, it makes it difficult to get a decent price on a player card as the high card expectancy automatically lowers a players average price. This can be seen in the fact that 14 players are 3/1 or shorter, with Cristian Romero as short as 6/5 for example. However, one player appears to be going under the radar in Arsenal’s most booked player this season MARTIN ZUBIMENDI.
He’s picked up five cards in just 13 starts and it’s no wonder when he’s committing 1.5 fouls per-game. How will he fair in his first taste of the north London derby? Let’s find out at 4/1 TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Tottenham
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