Ahead of kickoff of the 1 p.m. NFL Week 12 matchups, let’s dive into our favorite player prop bets today.
Below, we’ll explain why we like the following plays:
- LV RB Ashton Jeanty over 3.5 receptions
- ARI WR Michael Wilson 6+ receptions
- JAX WR Jakobi Meyers 5+ receptions
Ashton Jeanty Over 3.5 Receptions (+126 at FanDuel)
Browns at Raiders — 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Editor’s note/shameless plug: We’re starting with the player prop bet we highlighted in the latest edition of Newsweek Sports Betting 📩. You can read that piece below (and if you’re not already subscribed to Newsweek Sports Betting 📩 , look no further!)
There aren’t many beneficiaries of the current state of the Raiders’ O-line. One of the few exceptions might be those who have rookie RB Ashton Jeanty in a PPR fantasy league.
Jeanty has been one of Smith’s top targets in recent weeks, as this team’s pass protection continues to leave a lot to be desired. The former Boise State star has had at least 5 receptions in three of his last six games.
Last week, eight of Smith’s 42 pass attempts (19 percent) went Jeanty’s way, and in Week 10, Smith’s 26 pass attempts included 5 Jeanty targets. Jeanty’s share in Week 9 vs. Jacksonville (5 targets on 39 pass attempts) was not as substantial, but he turned those opportunities into five catches for a season-high 47 yards and a TD.
He also has a good matchup today. Cleveland’s opponents are increasingly leaning on short passes to their running backs to mitigate the Browns’ pass rush. Last Sunday, Lamar Jackson targeted his running backs six times in the Ravens’ win over the Browns. Keaton Mitchell, Derrick Henry and Rasheen Ali produced 5 catches for 57 yards on those six targets.
In Week 10, the Jets’ biggest passing play of the game against Cleveland came on a screen pass to Breece Hall, whose 42-yard catch-and-run TD marked easily New York’s biggest gain of the day.
With all that in mind, Jeanty to record at least four receptions is tough to resist at +126.
Michael Wilson 6+ Receptions (+116 at FanDuel)
Jaguars at Cardinals — 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Wilson will almost certainly not see quite the volume he enjoyed last Sunday, when he finished with 15 catches for 185 yards on 18 targets, as Arizona’s Jacoby Brissett attempted 57 passes.
That being said, as long as Arizona’s No. 1 wide receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr. remains out, and the running game continues to struggle without either James Conner or Emari Demercado, there should be a ton of work for Wilson. It helps his case that he was incredibly productive last week, catching almost every pass thrown in his direction, even as it became clear that Brissett was locked in on him.
The Jacksonville D shut down the Chargers last week, but it gave up a huge day to Houston’s Nico Collins two weeks ago (7 catches for 136 yards). This defense also was torched in Week 10 by Raiders “tight end” Brock Bowers (12 catches for 127 yards, 3 TDs), who often lines up out wide. The Jags also surrrendered big numbers to Rams WR Davante Adams and Seahawks star Jaxon Smith-Njigba in recent weeks, all of which bodes well for Wilson’s chances of having another big stat line.
Jakobi Meyers 5+ Receptions (-126 at DraftKings)
Jaguars at Cardinals — 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Meyers has quickly become an important cog in the Jacksonville offense since moving from the Raiders to the Jags at the trade deadline. He turned three targets into three catches for 41 yards in his Jags debut two weeks ago against Houston’s excellent secondary. It’s notable that he put up those numbers despite playing just under 50 percent of his team’s offensive snaps.
His role and production both increased dramatically last Sunday, as he logged 46 snaps (nearly two thirds of the available snaps). Despite his team not needing to throw the football much thanks to a suffocating defensive performance (Trevor Lawrence attempted just 22 passes in Jacksonville’s 35-6 win over the Chargers), Meyers still received six targets and produced five catches for 64 yards.
It would be an understatement to call it encouraging that Meyers drew that many targets while playing limited snaps during one of just three games this season when Lawrence has attempted fewer than 30 passes.
So, whether the Jags air it out today or rely on their running game, plenty of Lawrence’s pass attempts should be directed at the surehanded Meyers.
With Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) and Travis Hunter (IR) out, don’t be surprised if Meyers once again leads his team in targets today.
There’s a good chance he’ll also A) see a significant increase in snaps (he regularly was on the field for 90 percent or more of the Raiders’ offensive plays) and B) Lawrence will attempt closer to his season average of 33.8 pass attempts per game.
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