Ordinarily, a matchup between a pair of 2-8 teams would not mean much to anyone other than diehard fans and fantasy football players.
But when the Cleveland Browns travel to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders, there certainly will be a lot of interest, because Shedeur Sanders will make his first NFL start, and it will be against a beatable opponent.
One of the most polarizing rookies in recent memory, Sanders is getting a chance to start because Dillon Gabriel (concussion) is out and the Browns don’t have anyone else to turn to other than Bailey Zappe.
So, the controversial rookie will get his chance to be the No. 1 guy. It’s an opportunity that Sanders might not have seen if not for the Gabriel concussion.
Last week against the Ravens, Sanders completed just four of 16 attempts and was intercepted once. Many observers don’t have much confidence that the son of Deion Sanders can fare well as a pro quarterback.
This start is an opportunity to drown out the naysayers, who wouldn’t be surprised to see Sanders fizzle even against the likes of the Raiders.
Cleveland has lost four of its past five games, and its one win during that span was a rout of another lowly team, the Miami Dolphins. If Sanders performs respectably, then the Browns should have a pretty good shot of disposing of a Raiders team that is arguably the worst in the league.
Las Vegas has lost four consecutive games and was embarrassed by Dallas last week on Monday Night Football last week. Pete Carroll has not found anywhere close to the success he did in Seattle, and Geno Smith isn’t getting much help from his supporting cast.
Rookie Ashton Jeanty is struggling much more than expected, further contributing to the Raiders’ lost season.
This matchup has the lowest projected total of the week, at 35.5 points. Oddsmakers seem to believe that the Browns won’t even beat Las Vegas with Sanders at QB. The Raiders are 3.5-point favorites.
Browns vs. Raiders predictions and best bets
- Browns +3.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
- Under 35.5 points (-102 at DraftKings)
- Quinshon Judkins Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-121 at DraftKings)
NOTE: Odds are based on the best value our experts find while writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
This is a challenging game to forecast, because much will depend on how Sanders plays. The Browns obviously are not going to expect him to be much more than a game manager yet, and if he protects the football enough, a Browns win is possible.
I could also see a scenario where the Raiders squeak out a close win and Cleveland still covers. It will be on Carroll to rally his team and convince the troops that this is a game they can win, and earning a victory will be an important step in the right direction. Any win could provide some relief for Las Vegas right now.
Of course, Cleveland has a significant advantage when its defense is on the field. The Browns boast the second-best defense in the NFL, while Las Vegas’ offense ranks 30th in the league. Smith is tied for the NFL lead with 13 interceptions.
These two teams feature two of the worst offenses in the league, with Cleveland ranking one spot in the offensive rankings behind Las Vegas at 31st. The real stars of this game will be the superstar pass rushers on both sides, Myles Garrett and Maxx Crosby. Don’t hesitate to go with the under here.
Judkins will have to carry often to ease some pressure on Sanders. Right now, he is Cleveland’s best offensive player. Good ball control behind Judkins can set up adequate offensive balance and put Sanders in less positions where the Raiders will apply heavy pass pressure.
Browns vs. Raiders moneyline odds analysis
How the Raiders can win as the favorite
Best odds: -200 at BetMGM
The oddsmakers certainly foresee the Raiders winning this game as indicated by the moneyline. For Las Vegas to pull out a victory, Smith must cut down on the turnovers. If the defense gives him good field position, then the Raiders QB could pilot a few decent scoring drives.
Jeanty has been a disappointment in his first pro season, struggling to find running room behind a shaky offensive line. But Las Vegas will continue to hammer the ball into the heart of the defense with him. If Jeanty plays above expectations this week, Las Vegas will have a very good chance of winning this game.
Cleveland’s passing offense ranks 31st in the league, and Sanders doesn’t have any notable playmakers to elevate his outlook. Crosby could be a game-wrecker this this week, and Smith has one advantage in the passing game, which is Brock Bowers. He is by far the best- pass-catcher on either side in this game.
How the Browns can win as the underdog
Best odds: +165 at BetMGM
Defense can spur the Browns to a victory here. Garrett leads the NFL with 15 sacks, and the Raiders have allowed 31 sacks, which ranks 25th in the league. This game may come down to which defense forces a pivotal turnover, and the Browns’ unit is certainly the one to pick in that regard.
Las Vegas’ offense doesn’t feature any notable playmakers other than Bowers. Jeanty is the RB of the future, but his present outlook is discouraging. Smith is being forced to pilot an offense that lacks WR talent, and he gets forced into bad decisions. He throws a good deep ball but won’t have enough time to throw again this week.
This is Sanders’ first opportunity to show all the teams that passed on him in the draft that they made a mistake. Coming from a football family of his background, he may be well-trained to handle the pressure from the intangibles perspective.
The fate of the game could lie in whether Sanders avoids critical mistakes.
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