Garion Thorne details his top Geno Smith player prop on DraftKings Sportsbook for Cowboys vs. Raiders in NFL Week 11.
It’s been a rough season for Geno Smith, who enters this evening’s tilt with the Cowboys on Monday Night Football having thrown more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (12). However, if there were ever a week to turn things around, it would be against this struggling Dallas defense.
On the DraftKings Sportsbook, the Raiders are 3.5-point home underdogs in this Week 11 matchup. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here is my favorite Geno Smith prop bet for tonight’s proceedings.
Best Geno Smith Prop Bet on the DraftKings Sportsbook
Geno Smith 250+ Passing Yards (+138)
Look, I’ll be honest, trusting Smith to hit an over in 2025 hasn’t been the best course of action. Not only has Smith thrown for less than 200 yards in five of his last eight starts, but he ranks 32nd among the 35 qualified quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (5.71), ahead of only “rookies” Cam Ward, Dillon Gabriel and J.J. McCarthy. Not exactly the kind of company you want to be keeping. If that wasn’t enough, Smith was dealing with a quad contusion the last time we saw him on Thursday Night Football in Week 10, though he was not listed on the team’s official injury report for Monday Night Football.
However, the nice thing about Smith is that his rare good games as a Raider have been fairly predictable. Removing an outlier performance in Week 1 with the Patriots down top corner Christian Gonzalez, Smith’s two best showings have come against the Commanders and the Jaguars. Washington ranks 31st in the league in defensive EPA per opponent pass attempt (0.23), while Jacksonville is conceding the third-most opponent passing touchdowns per game (2.1). These were great matchups that Smith was able to exploit.
Well, matchups don’t come much juicer for a QB than Dallas in 2025. While the Cowboys did make some high profile additions at the trade deadline, Dallas enters MNF sitting 30th in the NFL in defensive EPA per opponent pass attempt (0.19) and 31st in opponent passing yards per attempt (7.7). This is the secondary that allowed Russell Wilson to go off for 450 yards through the air. Justin Fields threw for 283 yards against the Cowboys in Week 5, then proceeded to register fewer than 55 passing yards in three of his next four starts. Dallas specializes in making bad quarterbacks look fantastic.
Las Vegas doesn’t exactly surround its QB with a ton of weapons, but Brock Bowers is healthy, Tre Tucker is a legit deep threat, and Tyler Lockett has a lot of history with Smith from the duo’s Seattle days. It should be enough to bank on Smith to go over 250 yards, especially at plus-money.
