Tomorrow is a First Alert Weather Day as isolated chances for large hail and a few tornadoes will be present for parts of the day.
There is a slight risk of severe weather on Monday, mainly east of I-35.(KWTX)
Round 1: Morning Storms
A disorganized line of storms will move its way in from the west overnight tonight and will impact parts of our area from early Monday morning to around midday.
This line of thunderstorms will be at its most intense well to the west of our area through the overnight hours tonight but by the time it moves into our western counties it will still have enough strength to potentially produce some large hail in some of our western counties.
The overnight line of storms will move into our western counties early Monday morning. A small chance for hail exists but other than that this will likely just be some heavy rain and thunder.(KWTX)
This line is expected to move into San Saba and Mills counties before sunrise on Monday and will continue to weaken as it moves its way to the north and east. This line will be oriented southwest to northeast and as such it will impact our northern counties earlier in the morning than our southern counties. Northern areas along the I-35 corridor will see rain move in from this line in the early-mid morning hours and it will continue to lose strength with hail chances being close to zero by that point.
The line will weaken as it moves east, rain will reach parts of the I-35 corridor by mid-morning.(KWTX)
Round 2: Main Severe Threat
The atmosphere to the east of the decaying line of storms will become moderately unstable by the early afternoon along and behind a warm front that will be pushing its way north. Storms will start to pick back up again as the disturbance created by the morning storms moves east and provides lift to help start thunderstorm activity back up again.
A sector of moderately unstable air will be in place along and behind the warm front and out ahead of the outflow from the early day storms. This, combined with wind shear in the atmosphere may give rise to isolated supercell thunderstorms in the afternoon.(KWTX)
In this environment, individual thunderstorms will have the opportunity to thrive and become supercells, leading to the spotty chance of large hail as well as tornadoes. These storms will be limited to areas east of I-35 and will not be widespread, but any storm that does form will have the chance to become severe and should be monitored closely.
Isolated thunderstorm activity will pick up later in the afternoon in the warm and unstable airmass to the east of I-35. Storms that do form in this area have the best chance at becoming severe.(KWTX)
There is a large spread in our model guidance with regard to the timing and location of these afternoon storms and with them being mainly individual storms it is impossible to pinpoint locations where they will impact. The general idea is that these storms will have the chance to fire up in the early afternoon but those chances will disappear by around dinner time as more stable air will move in from the west and push any and all severe chances out into East Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
Thunderstorm activity will be moving out of our area around this time and dry stable air will move in from the west.(KWTX)
The Bottom Line:
There is a small chance of hail in the early morning for our western counties but this will more than likely be just rain and rumbles of thunder. The main severe threat is in the afternoon for areas east of I-35, and this threat is still small, but a few storms may produce large hail and possibly a tornado.
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