A new name is tracking in Penn State’s coaching search, which has entered its seventh week. And it’s one of the most intriguing of the process so far.
Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman has surged among the top-3 candidates to become Penn State’s next head coach, according to the Kalshi futures market. Kalshi’s marketplace gives Freeman a 14 percent chance to move from Notre Dame to Penn State, which still seems like a much longer shot than that.
Nevertheless, Freeman has climbed from having a 1-percent chance before the Nittany Lions’ 37-10 win over Nebraska to the 14-percent odds during the final week of college football’s regular season. James Madison coach Bob Chesney, a Pennsylvania native who has won 19 games in two years with the Dukes, is now the favorite at 37 percent. Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer is tied with Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz at 15 percent.
The Kalshi market has swung wildly over the course of Penn State’s search, which began Oct. 12, when James Franklin was fired. Favorites have included Drinkwitz, Nebraska coach Matt Rhule and Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline. Freeman’s ascension is the latest mood swing in the market.
Notre Dame is 9-2 and a near lock to return to the College Football Playoff if it beats Stanford in the regular-season finale. Freeman signed a new six-year contract in December 2024 that runs through the 2030 season. Notre Dame doesn’t release financial details, but The Athletic reported Freeman’s deal as among the “most lucrative” in college football.
Freeman has emerged as a potential candidate in major coaching searches and has been peripherally attached to Penn State’s search for more than a month. However, Freeman told On3’s Chris Low that the search speculation doesn’t come from him.
“If my name is being mentioned for another job, that’s somebody else’s noise,” Freeman told Low in an interview. “That ain’t the noise that Marcus Freeman is putting in his mind. It’s the same with our players. We all have to make sure that we’re evaluating the noise that we’re putting into our own heads, and does it align with our goals?”
Paul Finebaum shoots down Kalen DeBoer speculation
Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer watches his team play Eastern Illinois at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. / Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images
ESPN’s Paul Finebaum said that speculation regarding Kalen DeBoer leaving Alabama is just that.
“I have never heard one ounce of concrete information that indicates Kalen DeBoer is going anywhere,” Finebaum said during an appearance on the McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning show.
Show host Greg McElroy, who played quarterback at Alabama, said he has “heard absolutely nothing to support Kalen DeBoer’s possibility of going to Penn State. I’ve been told zero-percent chance, no shot. Those are direct quotes, and yet Penn State consistently thinks that they have a real chance.”
Alabama (9-2) plays Auburn on Saturday night in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide likely make the College Football Playoff with a victory.
A new favorite
James Madison Dukes head coach Bob Chesney argues a call with an official during the first half against the Louisville Cardinals. / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images
Chesney, the James Madison coach, has moved into the Kalshi marketplace lead, perhaps based on the suggestion from CBS’ Josh Pate that Penn State may have placed Chesney atop its list.
“I think they have zeroed in on their guy the past several days,” Pate said on his show. “I think that guy may be Bob Chesney. … Now that’s not the only [coach] who’s gotten a look here. I don’t even think that’s the only guy they have gotten well down the road in contract negotiations with.”
James Madison is 10-1 in Chesney’s second season and sits atop the Sun Belt East standings. The Dukes finish the regular season Saturday against Coastal Carolina and will host the Sun Belt Conference championship game Dec. 5.
What are Terry Smith’s chances to become the full-time coach?
Penn State Nittany Lions interim head coach Terry Smith is congratulated by athletic director Pat Kraft following the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Beaver Stadium. / Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images
Smith’s chances to become Penn State’s full-time coach fluctuate between 6-10 percent, according to Kalshi, even though players want him to be promoted and former players have endorsed him.
Smith said this week that he expects to have an opportunity to meet with Athletic Director Pat Kraft about the job. He also stated his case to be promoted from the interim role.
“No one knows Penn State better than me,” Smith said at his weekly press conference. “Of all the candidates that are out there, I know the history of Penn State. I know the culture, the DNA. I know the locker room. I know the administration. I think I’m a good leader. I think I’m a leader of men, and that will take care of itself when the time comes.”
Penn State concludes the regular season Saturday at Rutgers. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network. Both teams need a win to become bowl eligible.
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