The Edmonton Oilers have struggled this season at five-on-five. Entering Saturday’s game versus the Florida Panthers, the team was No. 31 among the league’s 32 teams in goal share in the game state. At 41 percent (41-59 goals), the organization that won the Western Conference two years running is superior only to the Nashville Predators in a vital part of the game.
Fans can point to any number of issues, with the poor performance of the depth players and a new organizational fascination with a dump-and-chase style that has been proven to be inefficient. What, exactly, is going on? And how does this get better?
Goal share, by line
An easy way to identify where the problems are is breaking out the scoring by line. Using centres as a proxy for lines 1-4, we get a good idea about how things are going. The Oilers began the season with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the same line. Through 23 games, Draisaitl with and without McDavid is carrying the mail, but the rest of the group isn’t enjoying much success.
PlayerTOI-GameGoals-60Goal Pct
10:14
2.04
36
9:14
3.67
65
7:23
3.17
60
23:57
1.2
26
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
There are some shocking totals here, beginning with McDavid solo. Much of the conversation about the captain’s struggle involved the absence of top winger Zach Hyman, but there were other forces at work across the roster.
Coach Kris Knoblauch welded McDavid-Draisaitl together at the start of the season, and has gone to the well often over the first 23 games. Additionally, a change in approach may have isolated several of the team’s forwards, specifically on the third and fourth lines.
The Oilers that made the Stanley Cup Final in the last two seasons used adept passes out of the zone to begin sorties; those possessions also included ownership of the puck when entering the offensive zone.
This season, the team has changed strategy, going from the passing system to stretch passes designed to dump and chase or place and chase, which is followed by quick pursuit, a collision and gaining possession by winning battles and cycling. Edmonton’s roster has players who can do it (Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin specifically), but the summer work done by general manager Stan Bowman wasn’t designed for this kind of offence.
That makes a player like Andrew Mangiapane less effective, and Trent Frederic, whose speed isn’t at previous levels, is late to the dump and chase.
Third and fourth lines
Let’s look at those numbers when McDavid and Draisaitl are on the bench.
Adam Henrique has played 246 minutes at five-on-five, isolated from the two impact centres. In that time, the Oilers own a 1.46 goals per 60 and a 32 percent goal share. One year ago, Henrique played 899 unique minutes, scoring 1.94 goals per 60 with a 45 percent goal share. The downbeat year over year is devastating.
In 2024-25, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins played 502 minutes away from McDavid-Draisaitl. His line scored 1.91 goals per 60, with a 42 percent goal share. This year, in 73 minutes, his line is 0-3 goals.
A team that was supposed to have strength at centre has not delivered through the first 23 games of the season. The two best centres behind McDavid and Draisaitl are bleeding goals, and none of the other options have stepped up.
Injuries and recalls
The current list of injuries includes Nugent-Hopkins, Kasperi Kapanen, Curtis Lazar and Noah Philp. The Oilers recalled rookie pro Connor Clattenburg on Friday, as Philp landed on LTIR.
Clattenburg brings a physical edge and willingness to fight, and plays the kind of game that invites uncontrolled zone entries and puck pursuit (dump and chase). It’s a low percentage offensive ploy even with veteran forwards, and will be a mammoth task for Clattenburg. That said, with the team morphing its strategy to the style, a more seasoned NHL player with those skills might be an attractive trade target.
Pierre LeBrun at The Athletic reported on Saturday that the Oilers’ plan is to run through early December (Game 30 is Dec. 9 versus the Buffalo Sabres) before taking stock and planning a path forward. If the Oilers are married to the dump and chase, a player like Alex Tuch might be a target after Game 30.
A concerning trend for the organization is the difficulty free-agent wingers are having in finding their way to success with the team. Last fall, a series of injuries, maladies and underperformance saw wingers Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson fade from anticipated feature roles with the team.
This fall, Mangiapane and Frederic are in similar spots with the Oilers badly in need of production from the wing. Late signing Jack Roslovic has eased the roster stress, but more is needed. In the case of Mangiapane and Frederic, the new template that eschews entering the offensive zone under control may be a factor in their struggles in their game. Put simply, the Bowman summer may not fit with the new Knoblauch offensive strategy. It’s difficult to change personnel in the middle of the season based on a change of heart about the best way to enter the offensive zone.
We may be here.
Saturday night
Clattenburg lined up on the fourth line with David Tomasek and Mattias Janmark against the Panthers on Saturday night. He played a physical game, and also had a pair of shots and two high-danger chances. He played the agitating role effectively despite getting very little ice time (5:46 at five-on-five).
The Oilers continued to use the stretch pass to beat the Florida trap, but added a wrinkle with a forward flying through the neutral zone looking for a pass instead of having the right-winger tip the puck in and chase. It’s difficult to know if this is something the team will employ moving forward, but it was far more effective than dumping the puck into the Panthers’ zone.
How much of that win had to do with strategy? Hard to say. The Oilers looked like they were in a mood to put the boots to their opponent after two heartbreaking losses in the final. The third and fourth lines contributed (assists from Henrique and Mattias Janmark) and were effective in forechecking. The questions about outscoring remain, and the Oilers’ dump and chase has a lot of history to overcome in order to become a ringing success.
On Saturday night, the biggest impact players were Roslovic, Evan Bouchard and Matt Savoie. The Oilers’ high-end skill won the day.
