As for the party divides on display in Washington, some were more circumspect.
“We support Donald Trump here, and we appreciate what he’s doing,” said Van Hilleary, who represented Tennessee in the House from 1995 to 2003 and is now running for his old seat.
The challenge for Trump, he continued, is that the measures that he has taken may cause some short-term disruptions and discomfort.
“We’ve let this thing go so long that the pretty fixes are in a rear view mirror,” he said. “I’m afraid what’s in front of us are not very elegant, not very pretty fixes, but they have to be done.”
The reality, however, is that Trump’s sagging popularity, the consequences of some of his more disruptive policies – his “not very pretty fixes” and his focus on foreign policy – have put stress on the Republican coalition, even in conservative Tennessee.
The state’s soy bean farmers and cattle ranchers have felt the pinch from tariffs and trade disputes. Looming expiration of health-insurance subsidies will hit low-income Tennesseans hard. And the state has seen same stubbornly high consumer prices that have plagued the rest of the country.
That hasn’t necessarily translated into a lack of support for Trump among his loyal voters in Tennessee, however.
“We’ve got this idea out here that everyone that supports Trump is this cult,” Julia Timson, a schoolteacher who was at the Crab Orchard dinner said. “No. If he’s wrong, he’s wrong. But at the same time, I would say, I’m the champion in your corner.”
Shane Wattenbarger, a construction contractor and longtime friend of Timson’s, agreed.
“I think he’s just a flat-out arrogant prick,” he said of Trump. “But for this country, that’s what it needs.”
Trump’s electoral magic has been his ability to attract new, disaffected voters while keeping longtime Republicans – even those who think he’s arrogant, coarse or wrongheaded at times – in the fold.
In Tennessee, that magic may still be enough to pull the Republican candidate over the finish line. Democrats have had high hopes in the past about special-election surprises on conservative territory only to come up short. But even here, the political ground may be shifting.
“One of the things that has been common over elections over the last decade is the people have wanted change every time,” said Geer. “And so if you want change right now, you’d vote for someone like Aftyn Behn.”
