Watching football on Thanksgiving has long been one of my favorite holiday traditions. Unfortunately, throughout most of my childhood, the Detroit Lions were horrific, so the majority of their games didn’t have much at stake in the way of playoff implications.
But times have changed! The Lions have been one of the best teams in the NFC in recent years, setting up NFL schedule-makers to hit a home run with the holiday week slate. Here’s a quick rundown of the Thanksgiving calendar, along with the Black Friday matchup:
Thursday
- Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET
- Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 p.m. ET
- Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, 8:20 p.m. ET
Friday
- Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles, 3 p.m. ET
Seven of the eight teams are in the thick of the playoff race, with the lone team out of the hunt being the Bengals, who are at least expected to be welcoming quarterback Joe Burrow back to the starting lineup. Given how close we are to the end of the season, the results of these games are going to deliver some significant swings in the playoff and divisional races this week. How big? Well, we can use The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, powered by my NFL Projection Model, to see just how much these games mean to the playoff picture. Let’s go in chronological order:
If you had told me ahead of the season that neither of these teams would be in first place in the NFC North by Week 13, I’m not sure I would have believed you, but here we are. However, even with neither team currently leading the division, the game will have a massive impact on who is likely to win the North. The Packers will see about a 33 percent change in their divisional odds if they win or lose, while the Lions’ odds will see a difference of 41 percent. Talk about a high-leverage game.
The good news for fans of these teams is that even with a loss, both are still likely to make the playoffs. The Packers are in a much more favorable spot at 73 percent, while the Lions, if they were to lose, fall to 58 percent. The primary reason for the difference: The Lions face a tough remaining schedule with the Cowboys and Steelers at home and the Rams, Vikings and Bears on the road. There aren’t any easy wins left on their docket.
The Chiefs’ playoff hopes have felt like they’ve been on life support all season long after starting the season 0-2. But despite not being able to hit on all cylinders so far this season, they never dipped below 55 percent to make the playoffs, according to my model. So, a loss on Thanksgiving will put the Chiefs at their lowest point of the season, and while all hope wouldn’t be lost, they’d need to be almost perfect the rest of the year to make the playoffs.
The Cowboys, on the other hand, are still a long shot to make the playoffs at just 13 percent. But with the addition of defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and the defense getting healthier overall, the Cowboys are a much better team than they were earlier in the year. A win Thursday keeps their faint playoff hopes alive, while a loss would mean they’d likely need to win out, and get some help, to reach the postseason.
As you can see on the chart, there’s practically no difference between these teams odds’ to make the playoffs and to win the AFC North. That’s because winning the division is their only realistic path to the postseason.
Let’s start with the Ravens, who survived an injury to MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson and a cluster of injuries to their defense to find themselves leading the AFC North. That said, it’s hard to feel too good about their odds with the Steelers right on their tails and Jackson looking less than 100 percent since his return. Still, my model doesn’t believe in the Steelers, and those teams play each other twice more this season, with my model projecting a pair of wins for Baltimore in those matchups.
As for the Bengals, you can see that at 3-8, their playoff hopes reside somewhere between slim and none. Pretty much the only way for them to get in is to go on a winning streak and take the North, as the Ravens and Steelers collapse around them. Is it likely? Absolutely not, but with Burrow returning, the Bengals offense should get back to being one of the best units in football. The problem is that the defense is atrocious, and we saw how that dynamic worked out last year with a healthy Burrow; they went 9-8 and missed the playoffs. Color me skeptical they can even get to 9-8, again. And if they do win out and finish 9-8, that would only give them a 75 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to the simulator. So yeah, it’s a long, long shot.
If you’ve followed my model throughout the season, you know it’s not a fan of the Bears. Despite Chicago winning seven of its past eight games, the model gives the Bears a 49 percent chance to make the playoffs and just a 16 percent chance to win the NFC North.
The offense is explosive, but the model has doubts about their down-to-down efficiency, while the defense has been injured all season long and hasn’t shown much resistance. Furthermore, the Bears have only played two playoff-quality teams, per my model, the Lions and Ravens, and lost by 31 and 14 points, respectively. Unfortunately for the Bears, the remaining schedule features four playoff-quality teams after the Eagles game on Black Friday. Only a Week 15 date with the Browns offers respite. The Bears play the Packers twice (Weeks 14 and 16), and finish the year against the 49ers and Lions, so a “collapse” is certainly possible.
