Snow map: ‘Higher than usual’ chance of a white Christmas as cold front moves in

If the expected cold weather front moves in, this might bring a higher chance of some snowfall over the festive season

DUBLIN, IRELAND – MARCH 2: Footprints on the snowy foreground can be seen, and a Gaelic football goal posts in the background, on March 2, 2024 in Dublin, Ireland. Following heavy snowfall across Ireland, a Status Yellow ice warning is in effect with temperatures expected to drop as low as -1 degree according to Met Éireann. (Photo by Natalia Campos/Getty Images)

A weather forecaster has predicted that Ireland might see a higher than usual chance of snow this December, with a chance of a white Christmas.

While it has been a mild mid-week, the cold temperatures are set to move back in for a potentially icy start to December. Answering two of the main questions he gets asked as a weather forecaster at this time of the year, Cathal Nolan of Ireland’s Weather Channel said that if the cold weather he expects to see move in does occur, this might bring a higher chance of some snowfall over the festive season.

While a white Christmas is a rarity in Ireland, it has happened in the past. As always, long range forecasting is notoriously unpredictable and very much subject to change.

“There are but two questions that we are frequently asked as weather forecasters. The first question is, will it snow this winter in Ireland? And the second question, inevitably, will we have a white Christmas? To answer the first question, it appears as though that as we go through the month of December, we are going to see conditions getting a little cooler, it seems, across the country,” Cathal Nolan said in a recent update.

Confirming that early December will probably be a mixed bag when it comes to weather features, colder conditions will move in. “While the start of the month of December is likely to be very mixed, at times temperatures will be a little above average, at times they’ll be a little below average, so average overall, we still do favour those colder conditions developing for the second half of the month,” he said.

“Now, the fact that that’s happening in the lead up to Christmas means that we do have a higher chance than usual of seeing colder conditions in and around that all-important holiday season. And with that the possibility of some snowfall.

He explained that there is no way as of yet to know if these colder conditions will bring snow to Ireland, as it is not yet possible to pinpoint it on measurement instruments or maps. However, the “clues” point to it being a possibility.

“Now, exactly where, when, in terms of whether it would be across parts of Ireland, into the UK, or just Northwest Europe in general, we can’t answer that question just yet. As forecasters, looking beyond that numerical weather prediction, which gets us about seven to ten days of a good idea, we’re looking for clues, we’re looking for signs that indicate whether it’s a higher likely chance, or a lower than likely chance,” he said.

“And what we can say at the moment is that given the background drivers, we’ve a higher than normal chance of seeing colder conditions developing for the second half of the month of December, and with that, the possibility of some cold conditions and maybe even a little snow around Christmas time.”

New research recently revealed that Dublin has a 6/1 odds, or a 14.3% probability, of having a white Christmas. There are varying ways of measuring what you might consider to be a white Christmas.

For example, if you consider any snowfall of any amount anywhere in the country recorded on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day to be a “white Christmas” then according to Met Éireann data released a few years ago, there have been 17 white Christmases since 1961.

Forecasting stations somewhat in the country have recorded snow on Christmas Day in 1961, 1962, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1980, 1984, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2009 and 2010. However, if you only consider it to be a white Christmas if there is a layer of snow on the ground by 9am on Christmas morning, then there have only been nine white Christmases in almost 70 years – 1964, 1970, 1980, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2010.

WX Charts Winter Overview shows small smatterings of snowfall in December. You can follow the maps for yourself on the WX Charts site.

The national forecaster hasn’t officially confirmed widespread snow for the country either, but Met Eireann has predicted cold temperatures for the coming days, as well as bouts of hail and strong winds. There will be stormy, thundery conditions, and bouts of frost too.

A Status Yellow wind warning has been issued for Donegal and Mayo from 4pm Thursday until 6am Friday this week. The alert warns: “Strong to gale force and gusty southwesterly winds have the potential to cause difficult travelling conditions, as well as debris and loose objects being displaced.”

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