The Athletic has live coverage all day of NFL on Thanksgiving with Bengals vs. Ravens.
Happy Thanksgiving! The NFL has cooked up an exciting slate to begin Week 13, including one matchup The Athletic’s Richard Deitsch says may be the most-watched regular-season league game ever. That should give fans plenty to discuss between servings of turkey, stuffing and pumpkin pie on Thursday.
We didn’t want to miss out on the debate, so NFL writers Jeff Howe, Zak Keefer and Mike Sando gathered to weigh in on Thursday’s triple-header of Packers-Lions, Chiefs-Cowboys and Bengals-Ravens. They also offered thoughts on this year’s Black Friday game between the Bears and Eagles.
Enjoy the holiday, and the NFL action.
The Thanksgiving slate opens with Green Bay (7-3-1) at Detroit (7-4), a game with big NFC North implications. The Packers easily beat the Lions 27-13 in Week 1, but both teams have had up-and-down stretches this season. Who do you like in this game and why?
Howe: I think the Packers have a higher ceiling this season, but I’m struggling to trust they’ll reach it during any given week. They’ve also played only one team currently in position to make the playoffs, losing to the Philadelphia Eagles, so it’s impossible to know how good they truly are. Meanwhile, the Lions haven’t played to the same caliber as the previous two seasons, but they’re 3-2 against current playoff teams. Something tells me Dan Campbell has also reminded the Lions they’re on the outside looking in at the postseason, so Detroit should be fired up to prove a point on this stage.
Sando: The Lions get the split at home after the New York Giants scared them Sunday. I’m expecting a higher-scoring game in the 27-24 range, with both offenses making big plays. Both teams are flawed, but I like Detroit at home trying to atone for a truly abysmal showing against the Packers in Week 1.
Keefer: These are two teams that have become hard to trust this season. With the Packers’ offense, I can’t help but have the feeling that more is out there. Shouldn’t they be higher than 13th in scoring right now? Maybe with a healthy receiving room, if that ever happens. I’m with Jeff and Mike. Detroit avenges its Week 1 loss to further muddy the NFC North race.
The Chiefs (6-5) and Cowboys (5-5-1) are coming off unlikely Week 12 wins that kept playoff hopes alive for both clubs. Who could be the X-factor for Kansas City and Dallas on Thursday afternoon in a game both teams are desperate (again) to win?
Keefer: I’ve been impressed with Tyquan Thornton’s quiet development in Kansas City this season — he’s been this team’s most consistent receiver at times, which I’ll admit, isn’t saying much. But I don’t expect the Cowboys to fold late against the Chiefs like the Colts did a week ago. He’s probably too good of a player to be considered an X-factor, but Dallas wideout George Pickens — second in the league in receiving yards (1,054) — has become one of the scariest deep threats in football. K.C. will have to weigh blitzing Dak Prescott and knowing Pickens could get loose down the field.
Sando: The two big interior defensive linemen could be X-factors in this game. That’s Chris Jones for Kansas City and Quinnen Williams for Dallas. At their best, both can get quick pressure up the middle. It’s a big game with a national audience and a great opportunity for one of these guys to make a big difference.
Howe: This is the chance for Dallas’ defense to prove it can be different after all. The defense allowed an average of 18.5 points in its two wins against the Raiders and Eagles since the acquisition of Williams and Logan Wilson and the return of DeMarvion Overshown. That’s a sizable improvement from the 30.8 points it allowed in the first nine games. Patrick Mahomes has been playing at an elite level despite the inconsistencies around him, so he will pick apart the Cowboys defense if the past two weeks were a mirage. But if the Dallas defense is for real, the Cowboys might actually have a prayer for the playoffs.
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow will return to action Thursday night, well ahead of a three-month recovery timetable for a toe injury suffered in Week 2. Does starting him against the hot Baltimore Ravens (6-5 overall but winners of five straight) make sense or should Cincinnati (3-8) have shut Burrow down for the season to ensure a full recovery?
Keefer: Cincinnati shutting Burrow down would have enraged the quarterback, not to mention the fan base. That would’ve created another firestorm this franchise doesn’t need — and it’s had a few in recent years, including the Trey Hendrickson and Shemar Stewart contract disputes, the Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins deals; the list goes on. If there’s one thing sagging AFC North teams love to do, it’s spoil a division rival’s win streak.
Howe: The off-field firestorm is a very good point. I’d also add Zac Taylor’s future to the equation. If ownership is assessing Taylor the rest of the way, Burrow needs to be on the field to paint a better picture, especially with the defense already gutted. Burrow’s presence and performance on the field can directly impact so many offseason decisions, too. If he’s not putting himself at future risk, playing Burrow is the call.
Sando: Players cleared to play should be on the field unless there’s heightened risk of reinjury or it’s super late in the season. That’s the way the league works. Burrow is a team leader playing on a five-year, $275 million contract. He expects his teammates to do everything they can to play and help the team. His teammates expect the same from him.
The Chicago Bears are 8-3 in Year 1 of the Ben Johnson regime, but still must play division foes Green Bay (twice) and Detroit in coming weeks. The Eagles (also 8-3) are smarting after last week’s loss to the Cowboys, but you can never count the Super Bowl defending champions out. If you can pick only one of these two teams to make the NFC Championship Game, who would it be and why?
Sando: The Eagles every day of the week, because they’re further along in their development and have the better roster overall. Caleb Williams is just now learning to play in a new offense. Jalen Hurts is fully established in Philadelphia. Philly also has the better, more consistent defense, one that is less reliant on turnovers.
Keefer: Again, I’m with Mike. When I look at the Bears, two things can be true: Johnson has done a phenomenal job, but they haven’t beaten anybody. Pittsburgh is the only team with a winning record Chicago has defeated this season. Friday doesn’t shape up well for the Bears, in my opinion, because they have an angry Philadelphia team coming home after an embarrassing collapse in Dallas. I still have serious questions about the Eagles, but if I have to pick one to make a playoff run, it’s the reigning champs.
Howe: I’d love to be the contrarian and pick the Bears, but I don’t like climbing trees and that’s a scary limb. I have a high degree of trust in the Eagles because they’ve shown their ability to fight through adversity. Their ceiling may not be as high because their offensive line isn’t the same, but the Eagles know how to win important games. While the Bears have won four consecutive games decided by five points or less, it’s a whole different ballgame trying to do that in January.
