There’s no two ways about it, for the last three seasons and the current one, Mike Matheson has been a bargain for the Montreal Canadiens. His $4.875 million cap hit is more than reasonable for a defenseman who has become both a minute-muncher on the blueline and the chameleon Martin St-Louis needed.
He’s gone from being the number one defenseman with a first-power play role to playing a more discreet one in the wake of Lane Hutson’s awakening, finding himself on the second power play. Then, this season, he’s lost his power-play time altogether. Through it all, he hasn’t complained, and this season, his production is bouncing back spectacularly.
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Last season, he put up only 31 points, exactly half of what he had during the 2023-24 campaign, a decline attributed to a change in his role, including his demotion to the second power-play unit. This year, though, with no power play time, he’s already recorded 14 points in 21 games, a 55-point pace when projected across 82 games.
A remarkable output for the blueliner, since each of those points came at even strength. It’s also worth mentioning that four of his points came from just 26 shots, giving him a 15.4% shooting percentage. Nearly twice as high as the highest shooting percentage he got in a season, 7.9% with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2021-22. Throughout his career, his average shooting percentage is 6.0%, so it would be shocking if he could maintain his current rhythm.
The veteran blueliner is currently playing the last year of his contract, and the Canadiens will need to decide where they stand with him sooner rather than later. He averages presently 24:46 of ice time, at even strength and on the penalty kill and given the current state of the Habs’ defence, it would be a massive loss if he were to leave. Kaiden Guhle regularly goes down to injury, and Matheson’s presence makes the blueline much more reliable.
His use to the team goes well beyond what the stats show. There’s a reason why he has an “A” on his jersey. The alternate captain plays a huge role in the leadership group, and each of the team’s young defenseman has benefited from his advice over the years. The 31-year-old is a natural-born leader and the perfect veteran for this young team. On top of being a Montreal native and a French speaker, which is considered a plus by many fans, the media, and the organization.
Speaking on the Sortie de zone podcast recently, former NHLer Antoine Roussel said he believes Matheson could get a contract worth $9 million a year. That’s a lot of money, given how much the Canadiens have tied up in their defence already and where it would place him in the Habs’ salary structure. It would make him the second-highest earner on the team’s blueline, below Noah Dobson, who has a $9.5M cap hit and above Hutson at $8.85 M. As for Kaiden Guhle, he has four more years at $5.55 M, while Alexandre Carrier’s $3.75 M a year contract runs out next season, and both Arber Xhekaj and Jayden Struble have a cap hit under $1.5 M. The Canadiens already have nearly $30 million committed to their blueline next season, and that’s before Matheson and Xhekaj, who will need new contracts.
Suppose Matheson is after the most lucrative contract. In that case, it’s likely he won’t stay in Montreal, as it’s hard to imagine Kent Hughes being willing to give the veteran more money than Hutson. Suppose the veteran defenseman really values the fact that he’s currently playing in his hometown and that his family is thriving in its current environment. In that case, he may be willing to leave some money on the table, just like Jake Evans did last year.
After signing his new contract, the veteran center had explained that there’s a flip side to starting over with a new team for more money: you don’t know what kind of role they’ll cast you in. You don’t know how much the coach will appreciate you. In Montreal, Matheson is very aware of how much Martin St-Louis appreciates him; he tells him to the tune of nearly 25 minutes of ice time a night.
Then, there’s also the possibility of winning a Stanley Cup. The defenseman is not getting any younger, and if he wants to have a chance at the big trophy before retiring, sticking with the Canadiens might be an astute decision if he believes in what Kent Hughes has been building.
Roussel may very well be right that with the higher salary cap, Matheson may be worth $9 M a year, but if he wants to stay in Montreal, the veteran may need to compromise and take less. It remains to be seen if he’ll be willing to do it, but my gut feeling tells me that he will be.
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