It’s been nine years since Formula 1 had a drivers’ champion not named Lewis Hamilton or Max Verstappen.
After a rollercoaster ride through the 2025 Formula 1 season, Lando Norris stands on the precipice of snapping Verstappen’s four-season reign — and emulating Nico Rosberg — by winning his first world championship.
But the road to glory at the Qatar Grand Prix this weekend is paved with complexities, strategic considerations and the ever-present threat of two formidable rivals, Oscar Piastri and Verstappen, breathing down his neck.
The state of play
The championship table makes for compelling reading heading into the penultimate round:
- Lando Norris – 390 points (7 wins)
- Oscar Piastri – 366 points (7 wins)
- Max Verstappen – 366 points (6 wins)
Piastri holds second place over Verstappen on win totals, having claimed seven Grand Prix victories this season to the Dutchman’s six. Norris and Piastri are both tied on seven wins, meaning the tiebreaker would then go to second-place finishes if they end the season level on points and victories.
This weekend in Qatar is crucial not just because of the title implications, but because it’s the final sprint weekend of the season, offering more points than a standard race weekend.
Saturday’s 19-lap sprint race awards points on an 8–1 scale, with the winner earning eight and each position down to eighth earning one. Sunday’s 57-lap Grand Prix uses the standard points system: 25 for the winner, then 18, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2 and 1 for the rest of the top ten. There is no point for recording the fastest lap this season.
In total, 33 points are available in Qatar, with a final 25 points up for grabs at next week’s Abu Dhabi season finale. It’s a condensed timeframe for a championship that’s been building drama all season. Two weekends, three races, 58 points and three drivers all within striking distance of glory.
Norris sits 24 points ahead of both Piastri and Verstappen following the dramatic aftermath of the Las Vegas Grand Prix. What should have been a commanding 30-point lead was slashed when both McLaren drivers were disqualified for excessive plank wear on their cars — violations of just 0.12mm for Norris and 0.26mm for Piastri.
The technical infringement stripped Norris of his second-place finish and the crucial 18 points that came with it, while simultaneously propelling Verstappen back into contention for a fifth consecutive title.
The championship hangs in the balance. But despite the setback in Las Vegas, Norris remains in control of his destiny.
The math for Norris
If Norris outscores both Piastri and Verstappen by at least one point in Qatar and wins the Grand Prix, the championship will be his.
A victory on Sunday’s main race, combined with finishing ahead of both rivals across the weekend, would give Norris eight grand prix wins to Piastri’s seven and Verstappen’s six. Even if disaster struck in Abu Dhabi and one of his rivals won while Norris failed to score, the tiebreaker rules would crown Norris champion based on his win count.
But there’s another path that doesn’t require a win. If Norris can extend his lead to 26 points or more after Sunday’s grand prix, the title is secured regardless of what happens in Abu Dhabi. With only 25 points available for victory in the season finale, neither rival could catch him.
There are myriad paths to this. For instance, if Norris finishes second in both the sprint and grand prix while both rivals finish third, he’d gain four points and clinch the title with a 28-point cushion. Or he could win the sprint and finish third in the race while both rivals finish fifth — another four-point swing. Even a sprint victory combined with a fourth-place finish in the grand prix would be enough if both Piastri and Verstappen finish sixth or lower.
The permutations are numerous, but they all lead to the same conclusion: a two-point advantage across the weekend, however it’s achieved, delivers the crown.
Outscore both Piastri and Verstappen by two points this weekend, and Norris is world champion.
Recent form still favors Norris
The form book heading into Qatar tells three distinctly different stories. Norris has been consistently delivering down the stretch with back-to-back victories in Mexico and Brazil and a remarkable pole position in treacherous Las Vegas conditions. Since the summer break, the Briton has demonstrated the consistency and pace needed to be a world champion.
Verstappen’s resurgence, however, has been nothing short of spectacular. Since the summer break he has four wins from eight races, and a podium finish in every race he didn’t win. The Dutchman was 104 points behind Piastri after the Dutch Grand Prix. Now he’s level on points. Red Bull’s breakthrough came via a new floor introduced at Monza, but, more significantly, through solving their ride-height puzzle. Red Bull can now run the car lower than before, allowing them to extract performance that had been locked away earlier in the season.
By contrast, Piastri’s form has been woeful. His victory at Zandvoort on August 31 appeared to be a defining moment, opening up a 34-point championship lead. Since then, he has relinquished that advantage and hasn’t finished any race ahead of Norris. The Australian hasn’t stood on a podium since Monza on September 7, and his title challenge has unraveled despite having the same dominant McLaren machinery as his teammate.
F1 contenders since summer break
MetricLando NorrisOscar PiastriMax Verstappen
Points
115
82
179
Wins
2
1
4
Poles
3
1
3
Podiums
5
2
8
Top 5 finishes
5
6
8
Front row starts
6
1
5
Laps Led
141
82
203
Average finish
2.67
3.83
1.86
Average qualifying
2.63
4.88
3.88
Norris has never been this close to a world championship. The pressure of knowing that one mistake, one moment of misjudgment, could cost him his lifelong dream will be immense.
Verstappen, battle-hardened by four consecutive titles, knows exactly what championship pressure feels like. He’s a prizefighter refusing to stay down, absorbing everything McLaren threw at him through the summer and still within striking distance, unburdened by his rival’s chaos. And Piastri, despite his poor recent form, remains alive — a young driver with the speed to trouble anyone on his day.
The mathematics favor Norris. The car beneath him should be competitive, and his recent form has been stellar. All that remains is for him to deliver two near-perfect performances across Saturday and Sunday.
But the challenges are stacking up, and the margin for error is razor-thin.
