Photo By – Covers. Jalen Hurts, Arch Manning, Luka Doncic, and more players in action on Black Friday.
Thanksgiving Day (and Black Friday) are two of the biggest days of the year for sports fans (and sports bettors) with action all day, spanning virtually every league!
After a thrilling Thursday, our expert picks also weigh in on all the biggest games on Black Friday, including Bears vs. Eagles, annual CFB rivalries (including the Egg Bowl), plus major NBA contests, NHL matchups, and college basketball tournaments — all of which are listed below.
Read on to see the analysis for our favorite Black Friday best bets!
Black Friday best bets
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Mississippi vs Mississippi State best bet
Mississippi -7.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
The Bulldogs are ranked 87th in the country in defensive success rate, 111th in success rate, and 67th in EPA vs. the rush. Mississippi will lean on the run game and wear out the Bulldogs as the game wears on, winning the Egg Bowl and covering the spread before Kiffin announces he’s staying in Oxford.
See our full analysis and Rebels/Bulldogs SGP in our Mississippi vs. Mississippi State predictions.
UConn vs Illinois best bet
Under 154.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Illini want to run and live in transition and scramble situations, where they’re elite. Huskies Head Coach Dan Hurley knows this and will focus on keeping this game more in the halfcourt… where UConn has been very successful, holding opponents to one of the lowest transition frequencies in the country.
See our full analysis and Huskies/Fighting Illini SGP in our UConn vs. Illinois predictions.
Rangers vs Bruins best bet
David Pastrnak Over 0.5 goals scored (+110 at BET99)
The New York Rangers have largely defended well at 5-on-5 but David Pastrnak is always dangerous, especially on home soil when the Boston Bruins control the matchups.
Where Pastrnak could really cause problems is on the power play. The Rangers rank 29th in shot suppression and 30th in expected goals when undermanned this season.
See our full analysis and New York/Boston SGP in our Rangers vs. Bruins predictions.
Bears vs Eagles best bet
Eagles -7 (-110 at bet365)
Chicago has benefited from pacing the NFL in takeaways (24), while Philadelphia has turned the ball over the fewest times in the league (six). The Eagles have also been money at Lincoln Financial Field, winning 15 of their past 16 and covering the number in nine of the past 12.
See our full analysis and Chicago/Philadelphia SGP in our Bears vs. Eagles predictions.
More Bears vs Eagles picks:
Texas A&M vs Texas best bet
Texas A&M -2.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
Marcel Reed has developed into a dynamic quarterback, while the Aggies’ defense is one of the best in the country at pressuring opposing quarterbacks into bad decisions. As a result, Texas A&M enters this game in the Top 10 in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play while leading the nation in sack rate.
See our full analysis and Aggies/Longhorns SGP in our Texas A&M vs. Texas predictions.
Knicks vs Bucks best bet
Mikal Bridges Over 15.5 points (-125 at bet365)
Bridges has scored 16+ points in five straight outings, shooting better than 50% from the field in each of those contests, and that makes this Over a must-have prop. He’ll be shouldering a heavy workload with OG Anunoby and Landry Shamet ruled out, and he dropped 24 points on the Bucks in the opening week of the season.
Milwaukee is equipped to guard the pick-and-roll action between Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, but that could open up some friendly one-on-one matchups for Bridges against weaker defenders.
See our full analysis and New York/Milwaukee SGP in our Knicks vs. Bucks predictions.
Mavericks vs Lakers best bet
Lakers -10.5 (-110 at bet365)
Los Angeles is a big 10.5-point favorite over the visiting Dallas Mavericks tonight, and I expect the hosts to pass this test with flying colors.
The Lakers have been the NBA’s best team in terms of covering the spread this season, going 12-5-0 ATS while covering in 70.6% of their games. At the other end of the court, the Mavs are just 8-11-0 ATS, tied for the seventh-worst ATS mark in the league.
See our full analysis and Dallas/Los Angeles SGP in our Mavericks vs. Lakers predictions.
Thanksgiving Day best bets
Packers vs Lions best bet
Lions moneyline (-150 at bet365)
Everything about this matchup suggests a close game, so home-field advantage could be the difference. With Jared Goff under center and their speed at the skill positions, the Lions tend to perform better indoors, especially in front of their fans at Ford Field.
See our full analysis and Green Bay/Detroit SGP in our Packers vs. Lions predictions.
More Packers/Lions picks:
Chiefs vs Cowboys best bet
Rashee Rice longest reception Over 23.5 yards (-115 at bet365)
Rice averages 7.6 YAC per reception (tied for eighth highest) and takes on a Dallas Cowboys defense that has allowed foes to pour on the YAC like gravy, surrendering the fifth-most yards after the catch on the year.
See our full analysis and Kansas City/Dallas SGP in our Chiefs vs. Cowboys predictions.
More Chiefs/Cowboys picks:
UNC vs Michigan State best bet
Michigan State moneyline (-105 at bet365)
The Tar Heels’ only win against a power-conference foe came over Kansas, thanks to their massive frontcourt, which outscored the Jayhawks 48-20 in the paint and outrebounded them by 12. However, they won’t replicate that against MSU, which also has plenty of size up front and defends the rim at a high level — while ranking eighth in the nation in rebounding rate.
See our full analysis and Tar Heels/Spartans SGP in our UNC vs. Michigan State predictions.
Navy vs Memphis best bet
Over 59.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Navy is 8-2 O/U for the season, while Memphis is 6-2 in its last eight. The spirit of giving will be present on Thanksgiving, with both teams giving up enough points to send this one Over the total.
See our full analysis and Midshipmen/Wildcats SGP in our Navy vs. Memphis predictions.
Duke vs Arkansas best bet
Arkansas +11.5 (-110 at bet365)
There’s a psychological hurdle at play for Duke, which returns to head coach Jon Scheyer’s hometown for a holiday reunion game. The distractions, as well as the prospect of next week’s schedule, which includes games against national champion Florida and at Michigan State, make this a trap contest for the Blue Devils.
See our full analysis and Blue Devils/Razorbacks SGP in our Duke vs. Arkansas predictions.
Bengals vs Ravens best bet
Mark Andrews Over 37.5 receiving yards (-114 at bet365)
Let’s not sugarcoat it — the Cincinnati Bengals are absolutely atrocious against the tight end position, which sets up extremely well for the Baltimore Ravens’ TE1. He’s gone Over 37.5 receiving yards in seven of his last eight games against the Bengals, including posting totals of 68 and 55 in the two matchups last season.
See our full analysis and Cincinnati/Ravens SGP in our Bengals vs. Ravens predictions.
More Bengals/Ravens picks:
Oklahoma State vs Northwestern best bet
Over 160 (-110 at bet365)
The Wildcats are 59th in the country in average offensive possession length, but rank dead last among 365 schools in opponent possession length. They like to push the pace when they have the ball, but four of their six opponents thus far have been among the slowest teams in the country; OK State ranks third in the country in adjusted tempo, which should will lead to plenty of possessions for both sides.
See our full analysis and Wildcats/Cowboys SGP in our Oklahoma State vs. Northwestern predictions.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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