San Diego State comes into the final week of the regular season in control of its own destiny in the Mountain West.
It’s an unusual position. Only one other time over the past decade have the Aztecs been so positioned. That was in 2021, when a victory over Boise State boosted them to the Mountain West championship game.
SDSU has another such opportunity in its grasp on Friday afternoon, when the Aztecs meet New Mexico in Albuquerque.
A victory would clinch the regular-season title and allow the Aztecs to host the Dec. 5 championship game.
SDSU (9-2, 6-1) could still achieve its goals if it loses, but the outcome then in the hands of other teams and computer metrics. New Mexico (8-3, 5-2) has championship aspirations of its own.
Here are five things to watch:
1. SDSU QB situation
SDSU quarterback Jayden Denegal has started every game this season while dealing with shoulder injuries that have limited him in practice and forced him from several games, at least for a series or two.
Denegal has been replaced on each occasion by backup quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr., who will miss Friday’s game. Emanuel was listed as out in Wednesday night’s availability report; he entered the concussion protocol after last week’s win over San Jose State.
Third-string quarterback Kyle Crum moves into the backup role, putting the redshirt junior from Norco a snap away from directing the Aztecs’ offense.
Crum has not thrown a pass in a game in three years, when he replaced injured starter Braxton Burmeister in the second half of a game at Boise State. Crum also was injured against the Broncos, suffering a season-ending broken collarbone.
He is 5-for-17 for his career for 53 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
“Crum’s got to be prepared,” SDSU coach Sean Lewis said. “He’s got to be ready to go. … Stand by to get some.”
Emanuel appeared in 10 of 11 games this season, either because of injury to the starter or in a mop-up role late in victories.
So it wouldn’t be surprising to see Crum play against the Lobos.
“I trust the development of our guys,” Lewis said, “and then we’ve got to do a great job as a staff, if we get to that moment in time, of how we call it. Know what his strengths are, so we can put him in the best position to be successful.”
2. Stopping the run
The Aztecs are among the Mountain West’s leaders in rushing offense with 187.6 yards a game. The Lobos are among the conference’s leaders in rushing defense with 106.2 yards a game (SDSU is first at 103.2 yards).
What gives?
“It’s going to be a great game with strength on strength,” Lewis said. “At this point in the season, knowing how great they are at stopping it and how good we are at running it, it’s going to be a true test of strength vs. strength, and you’ve got to go test that.“
SDSU has leaned even more on the run game in recent weeks, relying on a deep running backs room and sturdy offensive line to take some of the load off Denegal.
Junior running back Lucky Sutton leads the Mountain West with 1,127 rushing yards. Junior Christian Washington (409 rushing yards) would certainly like to make an impression in this game after spending the 2022-23 season playing at New Mexico. Senior Byron Cardwell Jr. (261 rushing yards) has had his moments as well, and he also poses a threat on short passes out of the backfield.
3. Home, sweet home
SDSU’s victory last week over San Jose State allowed the Aztecs to go 6-0 this season at Snapdragon Stadium. It is the first time the Aztecs have been undefeated at home since the 1996 season.
New Mexico also has been formidable on its home field, winning all five games — against Idaho State, New Mexico State, Nevada, Utah State and Colorado State — this season at University Stadium. Archivists are still digging to see when the last time the Lobos were undefeated at home.
This is the first time this season the Lobos have been the underdog at home.
New Mexico had a crowd of 37,440 show up this season against New Mexico State. It was their first sellout in more than a decade. They’re looking at another one against the Aztecs.
“Excited to have them at home,” New Mexico coach Jason Eck said. “We’re hoping that our fans can be a difference in this game and really provide a great crowd.”
4. Giveaways/takeaways
If this game comes down to turnovers, which so often is the case, then keep an eye on how well New Mexico holds onto the ball.
Ball security has been an issue for the Lobos, who have lost 12 fumbles this season. That’s more than all but three of the 136 FBS schools.
New Mexico quarterback Jack Layne also has thrown nine interceptions.
SDSU, by comparison, has lost only three fumbles (ranking 11th in the nation) and thrown seven interceptions. Four of those 10 turnovers came on a rainy night at Hawaii.
The Aztecs defense has picked off 13 passes (16th), including four by cornerback Chris Johnson.
They’ve also recovered two fumbles, giving them 15 total forced turnovers. The plus-5 turnover margin ranks 31st in the country.
5. Hello again
Eck knows all too well what the Lobos are up against with SDSU’s defense, and just because the Aztecs rank second in the nation in scoring defense (11.6 ppg) and lead the Mountain West in total defense (262.9 ypg).
Eck is well acquainted with SDSU’s defensive staff because Aztecs defensive coordinator Rob Aurich, defensive line coach David Lose and defensive analyst Tyler Sutton all worked on Eck’s Idaho staff during the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
“Awesome to see them doing well,” Eck said. “Obviously, want to compete against them and beat them.”
Quipped Eck: “I’ve been in the league one year … In all the years I’ve been in the Mountain West, they’ve been the best defense in the league.”
Added Eck: “I like challenges. You have to coach things very well. You have to have great selection of the plays you’re going to run. You’ve got to execute them at a high level. It’s going to be a challenge.”
San Diego State (9-2, 6-1) vs. New Mexico (8-3, 5-2)
When: 12:30 p.m.
Line: Aztecs by 1 1/2 points
Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque
TV: CBS Sports Network
Radio: 760-AM
