Repeatedly, and unusually publicly, the chancellor talked about how changes to the financial picture would leave her with no choice but to take those pesky, difficult decisions, i.e. put your taxes up.
This impression was created over many weeks, so tax rises didn’t come as a massive shock to you or the markets. Some leaks were accidental. Many briefings were deliberate, including suggestions just last week that the numbers from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had come in more or less at the last moment, looking more rosy than had been expected.
Here’s the rub. What we now know is that the OBR, which released this information late on Friday, had weeks before told Rachel Reeves that because more tax had come in, there wasn’t actually a hole in her finances after all. The Conservatives have blasted her for “lying” about the numbers. Downing Street has flat-out denied that.
But even one Labour insider questions whether the government crossed the line: “Everyone knows the game, but there’s a line between rolling the pitch and simply misleading the public and the lobby.”
In the worst-case scenario, the very messy Budget process has damaged trust in the government even more, and given their opponents more reason to hurl accusations of bad faith and bad behaviour right in heir face.
Budgets can unravel spectacularly, fall apart before your eyes. That has not happened this week. Given how bad things have been for this government in the last few months, that fact alone will be a relief. And Labour has emerged with a sharper political identity that’s relieved many in its rank and file. But that’s not the same as pleasing the public.
The financial picture doesn’t give much cheer. In the end, there may not be much economic comfort in the political comfort zone.
