Notre Dame has stood safely at No. 9 in the last three College Football Playoff rankings. And purely from an eye test standpoint, they look like a legitimate title contender.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) backs that up by ranking the Irish No. 3 overall. Oddsmakers agree, giving Notre Dame and Texas A&M the third-best odds to win the national championship at +800, behind Indiana at +500 and Ohio State at +165, per the Draft Kings Sportsbook.
All that’s left is a regular season finale at Stanford, where the Irish are 31.5-point favorites. So as long as they take care of business Saturday, it’s time to make playoff plans, right? Not so fast.
There’s still a realistic path that would put the playoff committee, which seems to love Notre Dame, in a difficult spot. Of course, a loss to Stanford would do the trick, but the Irish could be on the outside looking in if these other three things happen.
BYU Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier (47) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Nippert Stadium. / Aaron Doster-Imagn Images
This would be college football’s version of a March Madness bid stealer. As it stands, the Big 12 will only send one team to the playoff, assuming Texas Tech wins the conference championship. That’s the most likely outcome, given that Texas Tech handled BYU easily in a dominant 29-7 home win on Nov. 8.
But don’t out out the Cougars just yet. They’re fifth in overall efficiency, per the FPI, and rank sixth in ESPN’s strength of record. And unlike Notre Dame, BYU controls its own destiny. Beat UCF on Saturday and beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, and the Cougars receive an automatic bid.
Notre Dame would then be compared to Texas Tech, and that’s not a debate the Irish are winning. The Red Raiders would be 11-1, with their lone loss coming to a conference champion they previously beat.
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson (15) throws against Eastern Illinois at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. / Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images
The SEC championship will feature Texas A&M and Alabama if the Aggies win Friday at No. 16 Texas and the Crimson Tide win Saturday at Auburn. That’s no guarantee, but both teams are favored.
Alabama is currently ranked behind Notre Dame, but the Tide would receive an automatic bid and jump the Irish with an SEC title victory. Texas A&M would still be safe as an at-large team with one loss in the conference title game, not to mention their head-to-head victory over Notre Dame.
Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Southern California Trojans at Autzen Stadium. / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images
Ole Miss already beat Mississippi State. No. 4 Georgia is a 14-point favorite on a neutral site against No. 23 Georgia Tech. No. 6 Oregon is a seven-point favorite at Washington. No. 8 Oklahoma is a 10-point favorite at home against LSU.
Even if all four teams win, they don’t control their own destiny to the conference championship games. So with a win this weekend, it’s possible that none would risk suffering another loss in a conference title game. They’d likely stay ahead of Notre Dame, whose win at Stanford may not do a ton to convince the committee to move them ahead of Georgia, Oregon, Ole Miss or Oklahoma.
The 12-team playoff is fielded by awarding automatic bids to the five-highest ranked conference champions and seven at-large bids. Let’s assume the automatic bids are secured by Ohio State, Alabama, BYU, Virginia and Tulane.
That leaves Notre Dame arguing against at-large teams with hypothetical records like Indiana (12-1), Texas A&M (12-1), Georgia (11-1), Texas Tech (11-2), Oregon (11-1), Ole Miss (11-1) and Oklahoma (10-2).
That’s eight teams for seven at-large bids, and the other seven have been ranked ahead of Notre Dame in recent weeks. The only losses from now until then would be in conference championship games, and teams have not been severely punished for those losses in the past.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish celebrate Jeremiyah Love’s (4) touchdown against the Syracuse Orange at Notre Dame Stadium. / Michael Caterina-Imagn Images
That’s even before mentioning Miami, who some think should be in ahead of Notre Dame because of the head-to-head matchup. However, the committee has been consistent in its stance that Notre Dame would get in ahead of Miami. That makes the ACC title game somewhat irrelevant in this scenario. The champion is getting in regardless, and the committee prefers Notre Dame over the ACC’s at-large hopefuls.
So who would Notre Dame have an argument against? The committee would have to go against the way it’s been ranking these teams in recent weeks in order for the Irish to make it, and results in the next two weeks may not be impactful enough to swing the decision.
If it were up to me, I’d give the final spot to Notre Dame ahead of Oklahoma. Both would have two losses, with Notre Dame’s coming at Miami (27-24) and at home against Texas A&M (41-40), while Oklahoma fell at home to Ole Miss (34-26) and at Texas (23-6).
Notre Dame’s three best wins would be USC, Pitt and Navy, the potential American champion. Oklahoma’s best three wins would be Michigan, Alabama and Tennessee. Notre Dame is No. 3 in the FPI, while Oklahoma is No. 14.
The Irish are No. 12 in strength of record, No. 34 in strength of schedule, No. 5 in game control, No. 5 in overall efficiency, No. 6 in offensive efficiency and No. 8 in defensive efficiency. The Sooners are No. 8 in strength of record, No. 5 in strength of schedule, No. 7 in game control, No. 12 in overall efficiency, No. 45 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency.
Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) warms up before the game against the Missouri Tigers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
It’s certainly a close call, but I’d give the nod to Notre Dame, taking resume, metrics and eye test into account. I’m just not sure the committee would, because they’ve shown in recent weeks to prefer Oklahoma.
So with one week of the regular season remaining, followed by conference championships, Notre Dame first needs to win emphatically Saturday at Stanford. Then, all the Irish can do is hope they’ve shown the committee enough for a bid, and hope for at least one of Alabama, BYU, Georgia Oregon, Ole Miss or Oklahoma to lose.
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