Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for CFB Week 14’s game between the Oklahoma Sooners and the LSU Tigers.
Norman gets a playoff audition wrapped in a street fight. Oklahoma walks in ranked eighth, knowing a win likely seals a semifinal slot. LSU shows up with an interim coach, a 7–4 record, and a clean chance to smash the bracket. The stadium will remember last year’s Sooners spoiler act against Alabama and recognize the script flipping now. This feels less like a routine home finale and more like a test of whose defense blinks first. Below is my prediction for CFB Week 14’s football game between the Oklahoma Sooners and the LSU Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
LSU has already answered that question most weeks. The Tigers allow 18.5 points and 313 yards per game, ranking top-20 in scoring defense and top-25 in total defense. Opponents manage 192 passing yards and 121 rushing yards per Saturday, with Harold Perkins stacking four sacks and A.J. Haulcy leading at 82 tackles while this secondary keeps most throws in front. That profile traveled in Tuscaloosa, where LSU held Alabama to 20 points, and again last week when Western Kentucky finished with 10 in a 13–10 slog. The offense is ordinary at 22.6 points, 236.7 passing yards, and 108.2 rushing yards, but Garrett Nussmeier’s 1,927 passing yards and connection with Barion Brown give them enough punch to reach the teens against anyone who doesn’t completely suffocate. That is the bar here: functional, not explosive, while the defense drags the game exactly where it wants.
Oklahoma’s strength is no secret either. Brent Venables has a unit giving up 14.0 points and 280.5 yards per game, sixth in scoring defense and 11th in total defense. Opponents see only 81.1 rushing yards and 199.4 passing yards on average, and that front has produced 41 sacks and 84 tackles for loss, leading the nation in sacks and sitting near the top in havoc. That is bad news for an LSU line still trying to find its run-game personality. Yet the Sooners’ own offense lives closer to the middle: 27.3 points, 221.9 passing yards, and 128.2 rushing yards per game. Their last outing, a 17–6 win over Missouri, looked familiar—defense suffocating, one long strike, and then a whole lot of punting. That is how elite defenses win, but it is not how double-digit favorites routinely separate.
LSU vs. Oklahoma pick, best bet
The number asks you to buy more margin than Oklahoma has shown in this SEC grind. The spread sits at 10.5 with a total of 36.5, an implied script somewhere near 24–13. That would represent LSU’s defense cracking in a way it simply has not all year, even against Alabama and Ole Miss. Meanwhile, this is a “win and in” pressure spot with every committee eyeball on Norman, and style points tempt aggressive play-calling that can create short fields for both sides. Across the field, Frank Wilson is coaching for legacy as much as résumé after Brian Kelly’s firing, leaning into spoiler energy and fourth-down aggression because eight wins feels vastly different from seven. Those intangibles do not guarantee an upset, but they matter when oddsmakers price a rock fight like a comfortable home win.
Picture the flow. Oklahoma’s front wins early downs, stuffs LSU’s interior runs, and forces Nussmeier into third-and-long against twisting pressures. LSU’s defense answers by muddying John Mateer’s reads, squeezing crossing routes, and making the Sooners build 12-play drives instead of stealing explosives. That kind of game chews clock, piles field-position exchanges, and keeps both coaching staffs nursing three-point decisions instead of chasing fireworks. One short field or defensive score can swing which sideline survives, but it does not change how hard every yard comes. Oklahoma can absolutely walk off with the win and the playoff ticket while never finding daylight beyond a single score.
That is exactly the window this number hands LSU. A Tigers team that allows 18.5 points per game, sits top-20 in almost every defensive category, and just strangled Western Kentucky is catching double digits against an offense that usually lives in the twenties. The bet is that LSU’s defense travels again, the offense cobbles together two or three competent drives, and Oklahoma’s own conservative bends keep the door open for sixty minutes. The pick is LSU +10.5, trusting the Tigers to turn a playoff showcase into another four-quarter grind.
Projected score: Oklahoma 20, LSU 13.
Best bet: LSU +10.5 (-110) at Oklahoma
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