How close is this year’s Heisman race? Fernando Mendoza still has edge with 2 weeks left – The Athletic
The Heisman Trophy race is trending toward a memorable finish. But does it possess the ingredients to go down as one of the most contested in recent history?
Indiana and Ohio State can secure a meeting in the Dec. 6 Big Ten championship game with victories this week against rivals Purdue and Michigan, respectively. The matchup would place quarterbacks Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin on the big stage in Indianapolis two days ahead of the deadline for voters to submit ballots.
The wild cards in this equation: Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love and Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia, both of whom posted huge numbers Saturday in making their penultimate statements.
Player
Team
Pos
1st
2nd
3rd
Pts
Fernando Mendoza
QB
17
6
0
63
Jeremiyah Love
RB
3
10
8
37
Diego Pavia
QB
5
2
7
26
Julian Sayin
QB
0
6
3
15
David Bailey
LB
0
0
3
3
Jeremiah Smith
WR
0
1
0
2
Haynes King
QB
0
0
1
1
Dante Moore
QB
0
0
1
1
Jacob Rodriguez
LB
0
0
1
1
Kaden Wetjen
WR/RS
0
0
1
1
Love rushed for 171 yards and three touchdowns on eight — yes, eight — carries Saturday as Notre Dame blasted Syracuse. Pavia threw for 484 yards and accounted for all six Vanderbilt touchdowns in its rout against Kentucky.
Love and the Irish play Saturday night at Stanford. Pavia and the Commodores visit Tennessee. They’ll try to do enough on Thanksgiving weekend so that if championship weekend falls flat for Mendoza and Sayin, Love or Pavia could secure the trophy.
Based on The Athletic’s straw poll, all four appear on track to receive invitations to New York as Heisman finalists.
Love’s point total this week ranks as the most by a contender in second place since Ty Simpson on Oct. 14. Pavia’s total is the highest for third place since Simpson on Nov. 4.
In line with Heisman protocol, The Athletic awards three points for a first-place vote, two for second place and one for third place. The top four in the straw poll reflect the current betting odds.
No doubt, it’s coming down to the wire.
A year ago, in the tightest finish since 2009, Travis Hunter beat Ashton Jeanty by 214 points (2,231 points to 2,017).
That 2009 race, when Mark Ingram edged Toby Gerhart by 28 points, rated as the closest ever.
Next in line were Bo Jackson over Chuck Long in 1985, Ernie Davis over Bob Ferguson in 1961, John Lattner over Paul Giel in 1953 and Eric Crouch over Rex Grossman in 2001.
All were decided by 62 points or fewer.
Mendoza’s margin as the leader is growing smaller. But for the 2025 race to join elite company, a perfect storm of events must unfold over the next two weeks.
On the rise
Pavia did not receive a first-place vote in the Nov. 18 straw poll. This week, he got five. His point total more than doubled. He struck a Heisman pose with teammates en route to breaking the single-game Vanderbilt passing-yardage record, previously established by Whit Taylor in 1981.
Vandy coach Clark Lea said Pavia deserves consideration for the trophy. “He’s the best player in the country,” Lea said.
Pavia has led the Commodores to their first nine-win season since 2013. Vanderbilt has never had a 10-win season in 121 years of football.
Sliding
Georgia Tech’s Haynes King peaked with 10 points in the straw polls released on Oct. 28 and Nov. 4. A loss against NC State did not hurt the candidacy of the senior QB three weeks ago. But Saturday, it did, as Tech went down 42-28 against Pitt. King threw two interceptions. His Heisman support evaporated ahead of a Friday clash with No. 4 Georgia.
Opportunity awaits
Few candidates this season have ridden the roller coaster like Sayin. It’s an odd spot, because his play ranks as perhaps the most consistent of anyone on the board. Sayin’s 79.4-percent completion rate leads the FBS by a wide margin. His 27-to-4 TD-to-interception ratio is among the best nationally.
But Sayin is a redshirt freshman with an immensely talented supporting cast at Ohio State. Saturday against Rutgers, his top two wide receivers did not play and still the Buckeyes won 42-9 as Sayin threw for 157 yards on 13-of-19 passing. He fell from a solid second place in the straw poll to fourth.
But if Sayin stars on Saturday and Ohio State gets its first win against Michigan since 2019, Heisman voters will know exactly what to make of that.
