California Golden Bears vs. SMU Mustangs prediction, pick for CFB Week 14 on Saturday 11/29/25

Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for CFB Week 14’s game between the California Golden Bears and the SMU Mustangs.

Berkeley gets a ranked invader and a reality check at the same time. SMU flies in at 8-3 and No. 21, chasing a return trip to the ACC title game and a double-digit-win path in year two at this level. Cal walks out for Senior Day at 6-5 with an interim coach, a freshman quarterback, and a chance to flip the narrative into “we’re ahead of schedule.” The market hangs SMU -13.5 with a total of 53.5, daring you to believe the Mustangs travel with their November form. Below is my prediction for CFB Week 14’s football game between the California Golden Bears and the SMU Mustangs.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

SMU’s full-season shape looks like a ranked team laying two touchdowns, not a fragile favorite. The Mustangs average 32.7 points and allow 19.1, a +13.6 margin, with a 360-210 scoring split that shows control, not fluke. They win every quarter on aggregate, especially the second and fourth, which is what you see from a staff that adjusts and finishes. Kevin Jennings has stacked 3,113 passing yards into that profile, leaning on Jordan Hudson’s 691 receiving yards and a deep tight end group, while T.J. Harden gives just enough balance with 703 rushing yards. The offense doesn’t need to bully Cal on the ground; it needs to force those corners and safeties to tackle in space for four quarters.

Cal’s structural issues show up long before we get to vibes. The Bears sit at 23.6 points scored and 25.7 allowed, a negative margin that does not match how short this number is. Their rushing offense is the loudest red flag: 796 yards on 320 attempts, just 2.5 yards per carry and 72.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense gives up 4.6 per rush and 155.7 on the ground. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has fought through all of that to throw for 2,787 yards to Jacob De Jesus and Kendrick Raphael, but that means a true freshman must drop back behind leaky protection against a defense that thrives on chaos. That is not a comfortable underdog blueprint.

SMU’s defense is what turns this from “maybe Cal hangs around” into “live blowout script.” Underdog Dynasty and the stat pages both frame the Mustangs as takeaway merchants, forcing more turnovers than anyone in the country, with Ahmaad Moses already sitting on 81 tackles and 5 interceptions. They pair that ball-hawking secondary with a disruptive front that has been the quiet engine of their November surge. Cal’s offense, meanwhile, has thrown 10 interceptions and simply cannot lean on the run game to protect its quarterback or the chains. When those pieces meet, you get short fields for Jennings, sudden swings on the scoreboard, and a heavy burden on a Cal defense that already lives on the wrong side of the run-efficiency ledger.

SMU vs. Cal pick, best bet

Intangibles pull both ways, but they don’t flatten the matchup. Cal has the home crowd, the West Coast night kick, Senior Day, and the little burst that often comes with an interim coach. They have also played better lately, going 4-1 in the last five and 3-2 against the spread in that stretch. SMU, though, is playing for a conference championship berth and another ranked finish, with a scoring profile and quadrant record that say they are more than just a fun offense beating up soft schedules. In a game where one team owns the better offense and the better defense and the sharper turnover edge, I am fine trusting the favorite’s focus.

Price all of that and the number feels a tick light. A team with SMU’s +13.6 margin and quarter-by-quarter dominance facing a Cal roster with a negative margin and a historically poor rushing attack does not feel like a 13.5 coin flip. It feels closer to a plays-inside-17-unless-something-truly-weird-happens range, and the weirdness here favors the defense that leads the country in takeaways. I expect SMU’s passing game to pile explosives on a tired front, the defensive line to push Cal into obvious passing downs, and the takeaways to show up in the second half when the freshman quarterback has to chase. The play is SMU -13.5, with a script that leans slightly over the total as the Mustangs keep scoring into the fourth.

Projected score: SMU 38, Cal 20.

Best bet: SMU -13.5 (-110) at Cal

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!