The 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will mark Formula 1’s first multi-driver title showdown since 2010 – with Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri all in contention for the crown.
Norris remains the overwhelming favourite to clinch a maiden crown but the scenarios for either of his two rivals to prevail instead – whether it be Verstappen becoming a five-time champion or Piastri taking his first title – are far from outlandish.
All three drivers are on seven grand prix wins. It is impossible for either Verstappen or Piastri to win and finish level on points with Norris – so if there is a tie, it means none of the three won, and it will go down to second-place finishes (grands prix only, sprints do not count). Norris owns the tiebreaker there, by virtue of eight second-place finishes versus five for Verstappen and four for Piastri.
Here’s the state of play – in the form of all three drivers’ championship scenarios – coming into what is bound to be an incredibly high-pressure weekend in Abu Dhabi.
Lando Norris is 2025 champion if…
Norris wins
Norris is 2nd
Norris is 3rd
Norris is 4th, Verstappen doesn’t win
Norris is 5th, Verstappen doesn’t win
Norris is 6th, Verstappen doesn’t win, Piastri doesn’t win
Norris is 7th, Verstappen doesn’t win, Piastri doesn’t win
Norris is 8th, Verstappen is 3rd or lower, Piastri doesn’t win
Norris is 9th, Verstappen is 4th or lower, Piastri doesn’t win
Norris is 10th, Verstappen is 4th or lower, Piastri is 3rd or lower
Norris doesn’t score, Verstappen is 4th or lower, Piastri is 3rd or lower
Max Verstappen is 2025 champion if…
Verstappen wins, Norris is 4th or lower
Verstappen is second, Norris is 8th or lower, Piastri doesn’t win
Verstappen is third, Norris is 9th or lower, Piastri doesn’t win
Oscar Piastri is 2025 champion if…
Piastri wins, Norris is 6th or lower
Piastri is 2nd, Norris is 10th or lower, Verstappen is 4th or lower
